Two losses don’t necessarily eliminate a team from College Football Playoff contention anymore. There is a very good chance teams with three losses could receive an at-large bid or two now that the field has 12 teams.
And with five spots reserved for the highest-ranked conference champions, who knows? Maybe a team with four losses can grab a spot by winning one of the power leagues.
Still, if your team has accumulated two or three losses at this point of the season, those Playoff hopes are looking bleak.
Pencil in Ducks and Buckeyes
Oregon tight end Terrance Ferguson, left, runs the ball downfield against Ohio State safety Sonny Styles (6) during an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Oct. 12, 2024, in Eugene, Ore. (AP Photo/Lydia Ely)
This might be presumptuous after what has happened to Alabama since its thrilling victory against Georgia, but after watching No. 3 Oregon beat No. 2 Ohio State 32-31 in front of a frenzied crowd at Autzen Stadium, it seems safe to say that both the Ducks (95% chance to make the Playoff in The Athletic’s model) and Buckeyes (93%) are going to make the field.
They look like the two best teams in the Big Ten by a wide margin — no offense to Penn State (92%) or upstart Indiana (39%).
By the way, the Buckeyes have both the Nittany Lions and Hoosiers remaining, while the Ducks play neither. The odds for an Oregon-Ohio State rematch in the Big Ten title game are strong.
Out, or close to it
Who would have predicted after USC beat LSU to open the season in Las Vegas that the Tigers would be the Playoff contenders halfway through the season and not the Trojans? After blowing a 14-point lead against Penn State and losing in overtime on Saturday, USC has lost three of its past four games — each one more painful than the last.
At 1-3 in the Big Ten, the chances of the Trojans going on a startling run to the Big Ten title game are so remote as to be hardly worth mentioning, and the idea that this team could win out to get to 9-3 is beyond far-fetched. USC is done.
Meanwhile, No. 13 LSU has not lost since leaving Las Vegas. Maybe coach Brian Kelly’s table pounding, postgame news conference got through to the Tigers. They were the ones rallying late and winning in overtime Saturday night, proving yet again that Death Valley is where opponents’ dreams go to die. In this case, No. 9 Ole Miss’ Playoff hopes left Baton Rouge in critical condition.
Lane Kiffin’s Rebels are 5-2 with exactly zero victories against Power 4 teams with winning records. The problem for the program that won the offseason with a transfer portal spending spree is there are few opportunities for impressive wins left on the Rebels’ schedule, other than a game against Georgia on Nov. 9 at home.
The Rebels probably need to win out to have a chance, but maybe 9-3 with a victory against Georgia gets them in the mix.
U-downturn
(Rick Scuteri | AP) Utah running back Micah Bernard (2) reacts after scoring a touch down against Arizona State in the second half during an NCAA college football game, Friday, Oct. 11, 2024, in Tempe, Ariz.
No. 16 Utah entered this season as the Big 12′s favorite and is currently tied for ninth in the conference standings and riding a two-game losing streak after falling on Friday night at Arizona State.
Cam Rising finally played again, returning from a hand injury, but he was terrible, throwing three interceptions.
It’s hard to count out the Utes (4-1, 1-2 Big 12) because coach Kyle Whittingham and his staff tend to figure stuff out. They also will get a crack at two of the teams currently in a three-way tie for first atop the conference with 3-0 records. The Utes have a November stretch against No. 14 BYU, at Colorado and vs. No. 11 Iowa State.
It’s looking more and more likely that Utah will be playing the role of spoiler when the rivalry with BYU is renewed on Nov. 9 rather than the Cougars — which must have Utes fans seething already.
(Bethany Baker | The Salt Lake Tribune) Brigham Young Cougars quarterback Jake Retzlaff (12) hands off the ball to Brigham Young Cougars running back Hinckley Ropati (7) during the game between the Brigham Young Cougars and the Arizona Wildcats in Provo on Saturday, Oct. 12, 2024.
Tenuous Tide
Who would have predicted the winner of the Alabama-Georgia game is the team that seems to be in a more precarious position to make the Playoff?
After losing to Vanderbilt and barely averting another stunning upset at home against South Carolina on Saturday, the Crimson Tide are very much looking for answers as they head into a three-game stretch against ranked SEC opponents.
“There’s just so many times — we talk about finding a way to win. The ball wasn’t bouncing our way, but when we find a way to win when your back is against the wall like it was, even on the last drive there, I’m proud of these guys,” Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer said.
Meanwhile, No. 5 Georgia has won two straight since its second-half rally in Tuscaloosa fell short. The Bulldogs got careless in the second half against Mississippi State, a strong contender for the worst team in the SEC, but the Athens Bulldogs won 41-31 on Saturday after a no-drama victory against Auburn last week.
The Tide head to Tennessee next week for a game that looked like a matchup of legitimate national title contenders a couple of weeks ago, and now it appears to be one matching two teams teetering on the brink. The Volunteers followed up their loss at Arkansas last week by needing overtime to beat a Florida team with a coach running out of time in Billy Napier.
Maybe Alabama’s porous defense will be the tonic Tennessee’s listless offense needs. After Tennessee, Alabama hosts No. 21 Missouri and then goes to No. 13 LSU after an open date.
Tennessee has to go to Georgia down the road. If the Vols can split those two games and win the rest — beware that finale at Vanderbilt, apparently — they should be strong candidates for an at-large bid and could even slip into the SEC title game.
There is still so much left to play out, but it is becoming increasingly unlikely that multiple top-tier SEC teams will separate from the rest of the conference. The better bet seems to be the SEC sending a batch of three-loss team resumes to the CFP selection committee.
Next week’s monster SEC game could provide some clarity into just how much gridlock there will be at the top of the conference: Georgia visits No. 1 Texas, which dispatched No. 18 Oklahoma 34-3. The Longhorns look every bit the part of the No. 1 team in the country.
The Bulldogs, other than a really bad first half against Alabama, have looked like the next-best team in the conference but far from the juggernaut that was expected. Think of it this way: Less than a month ago, the SEC had six teams in the AP poll top seven. By the end of next week, all of those teams will have at least one loss if Georgia beats Texas.
Or if Texas wins, Georgia, Ole Miss and the loser of Tennessee-Alabama all will have two losses.
Scheduling is everything
The schedule has broken very well for the ACC to be positioned to have multiple double-digit win teams, maybe even two unbeaten teams, playing in its championship game.
No. 6 Miami does not play any of the other teams — No. 10 Clemson, No. 22 Pitt and No. 25 SMU — that currently are without a conference loss. Clemson plays only Pitt in that group. The unbeaten Panthers also get SMU.
A Miami-Clemson ACC championship has to be the ACC’s dream scenario with the Hurricanes and Tigers both sitting on at least 11 victories.
