Texas and Oklahoma may not be members of the Big 12 anymore, but that’s not going to stop us from experiencing the excitement the conference is going to bring this fall. According to my college football projection model, the Big 12 has the most teams (10) with at least a 2.5 percent chance to win their conference title among the Power Four. It also doesn’t have any teams with more than a 26 percent chance. That smells like chaos.
If chaos isn’t up your alley, I’m sure you’ve grown tired of the chaotic nature of conference realignment. Texas and Oklahoma are now in the SEC, but the Big 12 added new members to make up for the loss. Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah come over from the now-defunct Pac-12. Utah will contend with Kansas State as the preseason favorites, while Arizona isn’t too far behind. Colorado and Coach Prime are looking to go bowling, while Arizona State is likely to find itself near the bottom.
But let’s talk about the futures market. For future betting, I take my college football projection model — which takes play-by-play data and creates a projection for each team — and simulate the season 100,000 times to see how many games a team is expected to win and how many times they win their conference and make the College Football Playoff.
My playoff algorithm is based on 10 years of the four-team playoff. Thanks to conference realignment and the new 12-team playoff structure, this year could have more variance than years past. It’s hard to know how much this will disrupt projections, but my algorithm takes into account a level of randomness because of this, and, well, these are humans making selections. They’re not guaranteed to see things the way that my model sees them.
Big 12 win projections
Utah — 9.2
Kansas State — 9.0
Oklahoma State — 8.8
Arizona — 7.7
Iowa State — 7.5
Kansas — 7.7
TCU — 7.2
UCF — 7.2
West Virginia — 6.6
Texas Tech
6.3
Cincinnati — 6.0
Baylor — 5.5
Colorado — 5.1
BYU — 4.1
Arizona State — 3.8
Houston — 3.3
— Projections are the average number of wins a team got through the simulations.
Oklahoma State over 8 wins (-130)
Mike Gundy just wins football games. He’s gotten the Cowboys to eight wins in 13 out of the last 16 seasons, and there is no Texas or Oklahoma on the schedule. They made the Big 12 title game last year, and I think this team can be better. Alan Bowman returns as quarterback, and if he can limit his interceptions, this team can easily win double digits. Sharing the backfield with Bowman is one of the best running backs in the country in Ollie Gordon. My model has them closer to nine, and this is the best price in the market by a good bit, so I will not be passing on the Pokes here.
Colorado under 5.5 wins (+120)
I’m a fan of Shedeur Sanders and I think there is a real chance he ends up as QB2 in next year’s NFL draft, but you need more than just a quarterback. Colorado should be better than last year and I’m excited to watch Travis Hunter play on both sides of the ball, but I’m not sure they’re where they need to be in the trenches yet. Throw in out-of-conference games against North Dakota State, at Nebraska and at Colorado State, and you could have a start that’s the exact opposite of last year’s electric 3-0 start in September. I’m excited to watch the Buffs this season, but I’m not expecting them to make a bowl game.
Houston under 3.5 wins (+135)
I’m a little nervous fading Willie Fritz in his first year, but I think there could be a bit of a transition with the Cougars this year. They travel to Norman to play an old Big 12 foe in Oklahoma where they’ll be more than a three-touchdown underdog. Houston’s trajectory is good, but the schedule is tough and there’s a lot of roster turnover. That isn’t indicative of a successful season.