Why the Utah Utes can instantly be a Big 12 football power

The recruiting landscape is changing under Utes coach Kyle Whittingham’s feet yet again.

Utah is moving from the Pac-12 to the Big 12, and with that comes new recruiting territories to mine and new recruiting foes to compete with. Gone are the days of trying to keep up with Oregon and USC. In are the days of keeping pace with ... well who exactly?

With Texas and Oklahoma exiting the conference, the Big 12 landscape looks wide open.

And a look back at Utah’s recruiting history — and how the last five years would have stacked up against the 16 teams the Utes are soon to call conference foes — should have Whittingham feeling good.

If the new 16-team Big 12 had existed for those five years, where would Utah stack up in terms of overall talent? Who would’ve brought in the most four- and five-star recruits? And who would the Utes’ main competition be?

Let’s take a look at the recruiting data dating back to 2019.

A new world in the Big 12

Since 2010, the Longhorns and Sooners have finished first and second in the league’s recruiting rankings each season (only trading spots with themselves for the best recruiting class each year). And frankly, the gap between the two powerhouses and everyone wasn’t even close.

Texas and OU were responsible for 61% of the four-star recruits brought into Big 12 over the last five years. They were also responsible for every five-star recruit the Big 12 signed in that span, except one: five-star running back Zach Evans signed with TCU in 2020.

At a glance, Texas and OU’s average recruiting class over the last five years graded out with 277.07 overall points, according to 247Sports Composite rankings. The rest of the league’s average was 188.48.

At Big 12 media days last summer, commissioner Brett Yormark was asked what the departure of the two flagships would mean for the Big 12′s recruiting moving forward. At the time, he challenged the notion the two schools were far ahead in recruiting. He pointed to the fact that Texas — prior to this season — hadn’t won a Big 12 title since 2009.

Even without the on-field success, though, it is undeniable UT and OU were running laps around the rest of the league.

Without these two schools, Utah is essentially walking into a power vacuum. After UT and OU, there is no clear-cut third school that is picking up the recruiting mantle for the league.

If you traced the 16 teams that are going to make up the Big 12 next year, there would be five different programs that had the best recruiting class each of the last five years.

TCU, Oklahoma State and Baylor have put together strong recruiting stretches, but they’ve also had their lapses.

That leaves the door open for the Utes.

Where would Utah finish overall in the new 16-team league?

The Big 12′s four new additions will make the league stronger on the recruiting trail. Add Utah, Colorado, Arizona State and Arizona, and the average Big 12 recruiting class rating since 2019 would increase from 188 to 191 overall points.

Now, let’s say this 16-team league existed for the last five years. Where would Utah rank?

In 2023, the Utes’ recruiting class would have been the best in the new Big 12, according to 247Sports Composite rankings. It was Whittingham’s highest-rated high school class and finished 20th nationally.

Before that, Utah’s classes would have finished third in 2022, second in 2021, third in 2020 and fifth in 2019. Overall, Utah’s average finish in this new league would have been 2.8.

That’s a step up from the Pac-12. Utah’s average finish in its former league over the last five years was 5.2.

Average recruiting class in the last five years

Where Utah finishes on a given year is one thing, but overall body of work in the recruiting is where you amass talent. Stacking highly rated classes is key to building true Power Five depth.

Taking the average class over the last five years, Utah would be second in its new league in high school recruiting.

TCU would take the top spot, with Oklahoma State and West Virginia close behind.

Utah is consistent in an up-and-down Big 12

Consistency hasn’t been the calling card of the new Big 12.

If this 16-team format existed in 2019, the Big 12 would have a different program take the top recruiting spot each year — ranging from Oklahoma State, Utah, TCU, Arizona and Arizona State.

Utah might actually be the most consistent recruiting program of late. Utah is the only team in the league that would have finished in the top five of the Big 12 recruiting rankings each year.

TCU would have been close, with its average finish over the last five years being 4.2 and hauling in three top-five classes (plus the best class in 2020).

Baylor, with an average finish of 5.6, and Oklahoma State, with an average finish of 5.2, would also be up there.

But overall, the new Big 12 is up and down in terms of recruiting finishes (unlike the Texas and Oklahoma days). Take Arizona State for example. It would have finished with a top-two class twice (2019, 2020). But it also would have finished 15th out of 16 in 2022.

Or take a look at the Pokes. Oklahoma State would have had the best class in 2021 and finished top-five in three years. But in 2023, it would have finished 13th.

Utah should get some credit for finishing with consistently high-rated classes over the last five years. And it has correlated to success with two Rose Bowl appearances and an eight-win season this year.

Who is Utah’s next Oregon, USC ... is it TCU?

In the Pac-12, it was fairly obvious who the top dogs were. Oregon had the best recruiting class in four of the last five years. The Ducks finished with a national top 10 class three of the last five years. The Trojans did it twice.

The Utes won’t be looking up at any conference behemoths in the new Big 12. No Big 12 schools outside of UT or OU have reeled in a top 10 national class. But some candidates have the firepower to maybe get close.

If you are going to have a nationally rated class, you have to sign four- and five-star prospects. TCU has shown that ability: The Horned Frogs finished with the 21st-rated class in the country in 2023; they also had top-30 classes in 2020, 2018, 2017 and 2016.

Utah has enjoyed a strong haul of four-star recruits last year, signing eight. The Utes have averaged 4.6 four-star recruits per class since 2019.

TCU has averaged 5.4 four-stars over the last five years. That would lead the new league.

At a glimpse as to why four-stars are important, TCU turned some of those into legitimate impact players on its College Football Playoff team last year. Quarterback Max Duggan was a four-star from Iowa. Wide receiver Quentin Johnston was a four-star recruit from Temple, Texas, originally committed to the Longhorns.

There were productive three-stars on that roster too, but having high-end talent matters.

Two others schools to look for are Texas Tech — which currently has the best recruiting class in 2024 and a five-star receiver, Micah Hudson — and UCF. It sits in a recruiting hotbed in Florida and just signed eight highly rated players on early signing day.