Despite the release of Utah’s depth chart last week — with returning-from-ACL-tear incumbent Cam Rising the No. 1 quarterback, Milford High School graduate Bryson Barnes No. 2, and redshirt freshman Nate Johnson behind — head coach Kyle Whittingham said any of the three quarterbacks could find their way to the starting role on Thursday against Florida.
We all know that those three have different strengths and weaknesses, so naturally their coaches will call different plays depending on who’s out on the field. They also have different tendencies, decisions they’re most comfortable with.
And the Utes’ game plan?
“It changes fairly significantly,” Whittingham said, depending on the quarterback.
“Nate is obviously a tremendous athlete; we’ve talked about his speed and what he brings to the table running the football. Bryson is more in the pocket and would rather operate from there. And then Cam has both. If he’s available, he’s a guy that can make the yards and extend when he needs to with his legs and throw the ball exceptionally well. It does change and, particularly between Bryson and Nate, it’s a very dramatic difference.”
I wanted to look at the data on how the Utes’ offense operates with each of the three out there. Some of the conclusions may be “well, duh,” but quantifying those has value, too.
With Rising, there’s significant data — 25 games as a starting quarterback, with dozens of snaps in each. Barnes has started in just one game, against Washington State last year, but still has a sample size of 200 snaps over his career. Johnson has seen just 13 snaps, though impressively, three have ended in touchdowns.
As Florida coach Billy Napier said recently: “We’re doing all the homework we can here but there are really some unique players at quarterback they have on the roster that cause you to really evaluate all the scenarios that could happen. I know our defensive staff has been working on that.”
Passing snaps vs. rushing snaps
In short, the Utes run the ball more when they don’t have Rising out there.
When Rising is available, the Utes have been nearly exactly a 50-50 pass/run team, keeping the defense guessing. The percentage of times the Utes tried to pass was a little larger in 2022 than Rising’s previous years as the team gained increased trust in him, but was still limited to just 54%.
Meanwhile, the Utes run at least 60% of the time with Barnes or Johnson in the game. With the latter, Johnson’s likely going to be keeping the ball. That’s worked well: he has two touchdowns in five rushes.
Passing distance
Because Johnson has so few passing stats, we’ll just compare Rising and Barnes here.
Rising has run more than twice as many screen plays (with the receiver behind the line of scrimmage) than Barnes has — probably the opposite of what you’d think for an experienced quarterback vs. an inexperienced one. Rising gets the ball out of his hands sooner than Barnes — an average of 2.58 seconds from snap to throw, compared to Barnes’ 2.85 seconds. Rising has also been much, much better at avoiding sacks: Barnes has been tackled for a loss on 20% of his dropbacks, compared to just 6.8% for Rising.
But when they look downfield, Barnes tends to keep it shorter than Rising. That being said, when Barnes has thrown it deep, he’s been pretty darn successful with it, going 5 for 8 on throws over 20 yards.
Barnes threw two interceptions in 2022, one for every 35 dropbacks. Rising threw eight, one for every 53 dropbacks.
Rushing
No matter who is under center for the Utes, keeping the quarterback contained should be job No. 1 for opposing defenses. That’s because the Utah quarterbacks are very good at getting excellent yardage on their running plays.
It’s worth noting, though, how good Rising has been at keeping the ball secure while rushing. He ran the ball 70 times in 2022, including 32 unplanned ones, and only fumbled it once. Barnes also has one fumble in his rushing attempts. Johnson has yet to fumble in his five rushes, he’s also yet to turn a pass play into a run.
What do I notice here? While some Utah fans have been frustrated with Barnes when he’s had to play, there’s some argument to be made that the outcomes have been pretty decent. While he’s not as secure with the ball as Rising, he’s been pretty prolific with his opportunities in passing and running the ball when given them; unfortunately, the Utes become run-play dominant without Rising in the game. That may well be too conservative. Johnson, meanwhile, has played well during his limited snaps, too.
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