Las Vegas • Nine months ago, as the Pac-12 neared collapse with the impending departure of 10 of its schools for other conferences, a union between the conference’s remaining two members and the Mountain West seemed almost inevitable. Oregon State and Washington State needed a home, and the 12-team Mountain West was the only FBS conference remaining that could claim a truly West Coast footprint.
But when the leagues appeared in Sin City separately for their respective media events earlier this month, there remained little to no momentum for a permanent resolution between them. That’s because both sides still want different things.
The Pac-2 held an open-bar cocktail event in a Bellagio conference room, where former Washington State quarterbacks Ryan Leaf and Jack Thompson criticized those who left their alma mater behind and mascot Butch T. Cougar wore a red jacket and let his chest fur breathe. With only a two-year window to operate as a two-team conference per NCAA rules, Oregon State and Washington State are hoping for further realignment chaos, hoping a Power 4 invitation or new possibility emerges.
The Mountain West held its media days within the world’s largest sportsbook at Circa, pushing excitement about a deep league and opportunity in a new 12-team College Football Playoff. The conference wants stability, not chaos, and some league members have wondered privately why they should give another lifeline to the Pac-2 without a long-term agreement, even as everyone stays cordial publicly.
Last December, the parties agreed to a one-year football scheduling agreement, helping the Beavers and Cougars secure six additional Mountain West opponents for their 2024 football schedules in exchange for more than $14 million. The contract spoke of working toward a basketball agreement that never transpired. Oregon State and Washington State’s programs in that sport and most others will operate as affiliate members under a two-year contract with the West Coast Conference instead. (Oregon State baseball opted for independence.) Both sides say an agreement on a 2025 football schedule needs to happen before the 2024 season kicks off. So will it?
“I’m pretty confident,” Mountain West commissioner Gloria Nevarez said. “You never know with how contracting goes. It was built in anticipation as a two-year schedule. Because that’s how you mitigate competitive inequities, and we figure if we’re going to do it, it’s easier to do two. It’s not for any reason except for we had to get through June meetings, then July gets kind of quiet. (Pac-12 commissioner Teresa Gould) and I have been talking, and it’s just been a phone tag thing.”
That football agreement also laid out in writing a “good faith” effort for the Pac-12 to absorb all Mountain West schools under the Pac-12 banner at no cost, “as promptly as reasonably practicable,” in time for the 2025-26 or 2026-27 seasons. That hasn’t happened.
Oregon State has six games on its 2025 football schedule and Washington State has five, not including a matchup with each other. Mountain West schools could theoretically fill out those schedules individually, or they could hold firm together and secure another conference-wide agreement.
“We’ll have to see if everything falls into place or we explore a different path for that second year,” new Washington State athletic director Anne McCoy said, “or if everything goes forward with the Mountain West.”
Big picture, Oregon State and Washington State want to buy as much time as possible and see what happens elsewhere — perhaps, say, if Florida State and Clemson try to officially leave the ACC, that league might explore getting back to 17 members. Oregon State athletic director Scott Barnes told The Athletic earlier this year that joining a Power 4 conference is the top priority, followed by some merger with the Mountain West.
“It’s important to get the time to see where the landscape is going,” said Oregon State executive deputy athletic director Brent Blaylock, who represented OSU at the Vegas event. “We’ve seen the volatility of how things change. We know some of the other friction points going on in other places. So it’s important for us to just stay abreast of what’s going on.”
The Mountain West, meanwhile, feels more emboldened than it did a year ago and doesn’t appreciate the image of being a backup option. The introduction of a 12-team CFP means the Mountain West champion has a path to the Playoff for the foreseeable future, while the Pac-2 can only receive an at-large berth, and the CFP deal with ESPN runs through 2032. The Mountain West also got six teams into this year’s NCAA men’s basketball tournament. It won’t beg for two more members.
“When I first started (as commissioner), everyone was growing to 14, 16, and I thought maybe that’s where we need to be,” Nevarez said. “I’m not seeing a need now. Certainly if there’s an opportunity to make us better, I would absolutely chase that down. But I’m feeling pretty good about where we are.”
For this upcoming football season, the Mountain West is pushing its strength of schedule: League members will play 35 games against Power 5 opponents (including Oregon State and Washington State), with 15 of those games at home, by far the most of any Group of 5 conference.
What does hang over the Mountain West is its television deal, which recently added TNT Sports as a third partner and runs through 2025-26. That coincidentally times up with the Pac-2′s window. It’d be an easy moment to make an addition. But what about departures? The Mountain West office has maintained that its exit fee ($18 million, or $36 million for schools leaving within a year) applies regardless of the TV situation, something that was brought up last summer when San Diego State danced with the idea of leaving the league. Any attempt by Oregon State and Washington State to pull Group of 5 teams from multiple conferences would be very expensive, even with a $255 million war chest leftover from the Pac-12.
The football agreement signed last year lays out that adding one Mountain West school would cost the Pac-2 $10 million. Adding six schools would cost $67.5 million; 11 schools would cost $137.5 million, not including their exit fees for leaving the MW. But adding all 12 would cost nothing. The league held firm in putting that deal together, protecting everyone.
The one wild-card scenario is dissolving the Mountain West, which would require nine of 12 schools voting in favor and therefore removing any exit fees. That possibility has not garnered enough votes to be an option, especially given the open desire of the Pac-2 schools to land elsewhere.
Oregon State and Washington State will chart their future amid plenty of internal change. Football coach Jonathan Smith and highly-touted quarterback Aidan Chiles left Oregon State for Michigan State, and star running back Damien Martinez went to Miami (Fla.). Washington State athletic director Pat Chun left for Washington, and talented quarterback Cam Ward went to Miami. Influential president Kirk Schulz will retire next June. That turnover has made a difficult situation even tougher.
No one associated with the Pac-2 in that Bellagio conference room could say what the future holds, but after a year of upheaval and ahead of a historic and unique fall, an open bar felt appropriate.
“If anybody has earned the right to drink,” Gould said, “it’s the Pac-12.”
This article originally appeared in The Athletic.