Utah State knew if it didn’t win the Mountain West Conference Men’s Basketball Championship last week, it would be spending seven days in limbo, fretting about whether it would be chosen to compete in the NCAA Tournament.
With a thrilling three-point victory over San Diego State on Saturday, the Aggies swept away that uncertainty, becoming the first team to secure an automatic bid to the Big Dance.
Now instead of worrying about whether they’ll get in, they and their fans can consume themselves with where the team will land when the tournament selection committee releases the bracket Sunday.
As of Monday, it looked like USU would receive a seed reflective of how many days the Aggies could go between games: 10-12.
“We solidly have them as an 11 now,” said Chad Sherwood, co-owner of HoopsHD, which uses the opinions of six or seven experts along with a computer-generated analysis to make its predictions. “I don’t know that they can move up to the 10 and don’t see them moving down to 12, especially with a win against SDSU.”
The Bracket Matrix, which averages out the predictions of 141 bracketology sites, including HoopsHD, gave USU an average seed of 10.56. That lands the Aggies as one of the higher-ranked No. 11 seeds or lower-ranked No. 10 seeds.
Even though that’s a lower seed than USU entered the tournament with last year, when it fell as a No. 8 to No. 9 Washington in the first round, that’s not bad news for the Aggies statistically speaking. According to the NCAA, No. 10s upset No. 7s nearly 40% of the time and at least one No. 10 has advanced in all but two tournaments. No. 11s are 9-7 against No. 6s over the past four years and win 37.1% of the time. Even if USU drops to No. 12, it still would have a 35% chance of toppling a No. 5 in what is one of the most popular March Madness bracket pool upset picks.
Still, Kevin Pulsifier, a researcher for ESPN who is ranked the No. 2 bracketologist in the country, said he doesn’t expect the Aggies to fall that far.
In an analysis on Twitter, Pulsifier wrote, “depending on what other teams do around them and how the committee views their big wins over SDSU, LSU and Florida, I could easily see them as a 10 seed. I doubt they fall to a 12; in fact I think it's more likely the committee puts them as a 9 than a 12.”
Utah State defeated LSU and Florida, rated among the top 40 teams in the nation, in early season tournaments. The Aggies also had Quad 1 losses to BYU and Boise State and two to SDSU this year. Before USU rallied from a 16-point deficit in the first half to upend the Aztecs last week, SDSU had lost only once, was ranked No. 5 in the nation and was being considered as a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. They are now widely expected to earn a No. 2 seed, which will still be advantageous for the Aztecs since it will likely keep them in the West instead of sending them across the country to the East regional.
In the same way, the Aggies, who fall within the top 50-rated teams, might prefer taking a high No. 11 seed. That could lead to them being placed someplace relatively close, like Sacramento, Calif., or Omaha, Neb., rather than receiving a low No. 10 seed and having to trek out to Tampa, Fla.
“If they’re a 10, they may get the least favorable 10 spot,” Sherwood said. “If they’re an 11, it might be the most favorable 11 seed.”
The Aggies will have to wait until Sunday to find out where and when they’ll play next: The tournament starts Tuesday with the First Four while the first round of bracket play will begin Thursday and Friday at regional sites. Any anxiety they feel over those variables, however, hardly registers compared to if they’d left their fate in the hands of the NCAA selection committee.
“Without the victory over the Aztecs,” Pulsifier wrote, “it would have been a very close call on Selection Sunday.”
SELECTION SUNDAY
When • 4 p.m. MT
TV • Ch. 2
