Three thoughts on the Utah Jazz’s 126-118 loss to the Toronto Raptors from Salt Lake Tribune Jazz beat writer Andy Larsen.
1. The Jazz try a new tanking strategy
Ah ha! Fresh off being fined by the NBA on Wednesday for not playing Lauri Markkanen despite being healthy, the Jazz tried a new tanking strategy on Friday.
Rather than choosing to inactivate Walker Kessler for reasons of rest (which puts him on the injury report) the Jazz chose to dress Kessler before giving him a DNP-CD. Then, the Jazz started Lauri Markkanen, played him 18 minutes, and then sat him for the entire second half. Finally, the piece de resistance was playing Collin Sexton only 20 minutes, finishing with Johnny Juzang instead.
That’s very different than their previous strategy, which was just to have a really lengthy injury report. Clearly, though, the league didn’t like that, given the fine.
Trying to beat the Player Participation Policy in this new other way is obviously ludicrous and bonkers and absurd and everything else, but what are you gonna do.
One thing this new strategy does do is make gamblers very mad. This Underdog NBA account cited my report that Kessler would be a DNP before the game, and you can scroll through the responses underneath the tweet if you click on it: gamblers feel like they’d had the rug pulled under them.
My general thought is that if you gamble on the Utah Jazz in a tanking season, that’s most likely to be a level of degeneracy that is probably justly rewarded by losing sometimes. But the league has attempted to embrace sports betting as a strategy to make money for the league and draw eyeballs, and simply skipping out on the injury report and leaving bettors guessing is probably not the strategy the NBA wants to embrace, either.
So, here’s my tip for all Jazz sports gamblers, you goofs: do not bet on Jazz veteran overs the rest of the year. Lauri Markkanen, John Collins, Collin Sexton, and Walker Kessler are all likely to see their minutes cut or eliminated as the team tries to lose games. Don’t necessarily bet the under, either, though. The bookies are smart enough to give lines that take this into account, and there may be games, especially against good competition, where the veterans play a normal amount.
That also makes gambling on the Jazz’s youth dangerous, as their minutes will depend on who plays for the veterans. Of the youth, only Isaiah Collier really has guaranteed playing time.
2. Can the Jazz figure out how to go small eventually?
One tactic good teams many good teams have in their toolbox is the ability to go small, playing without a traditional center. It’s probably seven of the last 10 NBA champions that had a really compelling small-ball lineup to go to that paid dividends at significant points in their championship run.
The Jazz, under their self-inflicted Walker Kessler absence, only had one center tonight: Kyle Filipowski. The Jazz actually won his minutes by 14 points. He played 33 minutes, which means that for the other 15 minutes on the court, the Jazz were outscored by a whopping 22 points. In other words, the small ball lineups didn’t work.
That makes sense, though: effective small ball lineups require good teamwork, tough individual and help defense, and skilled isolation defenders to work. A lineup of Collin Sexton, Jordan Clarkson, Brice Sensabaugh, Johnny Juzang, and KJ Martin was played tonight. If we rate that defensive lineup on a scale from one to 10, it’s a one.
You can watch every player on a possession like the one above and think “ah, yes, that’s not going to be good enough.”
It’s certainly hard to be at their best when they’re tanking. But these players, maybe with the exception of Martin, don’t really have the size, athleticism, or defensive knowhow to be positive defensive pieces.
With Kessler’s presence down there, it can look *okay*. Without him, it’s unplayable.
I hope the next good iteration of the Jazz does have these positive defensive pieces that allow for flexibility, and I have some hope for Cody Williams and Taylor Hendricks especially.
3. A database of referee statistics
One basketball statistician doing some fun, informative stuff in public right now: Owen Phillips.
His most recent work has been releasing a database from the NBA’s play-by-play logs on referee statistics. The 11th, 12th, and 13th men on the court do have a significant impact on proceedings, as everyone knows, but there’s a lot we haven’t really studied much about them. How different is one ref to another?
Thanks to Phillips' database, we can find out. Some interesting items available:
• The gap between the ref that calls the most fouls (Scott Foster, no shock) and the fewest fouls (Intae Hwang) is about 4.5 fouls per 100 possessions. That’s a big gap!
• Zach Zarba’s crews overturn their own calls most often in the NBA (73.8% of the time) while Curtis Blair only overturns his crew’s calls 49% of the time, least in the league.
• James Williams leads the league in technical fouls per 100 possessions, while Marc Davis is second. Tom Washington and ShaRae Mitchell have yet to give out a technical this year.
• John Goble has an eagle eye for travels, calling 40 this year. Ashley Moyer-Gleich hasn’t called any.
On Phillips' site, you can view any ref’s profile and see how they compare to other refs. For example, Foster’s always been big on calling fouls, but he’s about average at giving out technicals. Bill Kennedy doesn’t call many fouls at all, but he loves giving out various kinds of other violations.
It’s interesting stuff! Good work, Owen.
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