Three thoughts on the Utah Jazz’s 117-116 win over the Minnesota Timberwolves from Salt Lake Tribune Jazz beat writer Andy Larsen.
1. John Collins, difference-making four
It’s been a pretty incredible season for John Collins. After a 2023-24 in which the Jazz were generally better when he wasn’t on the floor, he’s been really, really excellent in 2024-25.
Everything that’s changed for him this season was on display tonight.
Shotmaking
After shooting just 29% from three in his final season with the Hawks — I think we can now safely say that was largely due to a busted finger — he rebounded last year with 37% shooting from deep. This year, he’s all the way up to 41%, including a 3-6 shooting performance tonight.
He’s also been shooting much better from the mid-range: 31% last year, 41% this year.
(NBA.com)
Defenses are starting to notice a little, too. At the beginning of the season, defenses were generally just letting him take those shots. Now, if Collins pops open for the three in an avoidable way, coaches will take timeout, like Chris Finch did tonight.
Shooting remains the most important NBA skill, and Collins has it.
Playmaking
Collins has had career bests in assists and assist percentage this year. Tonight, his one assist won the Jazz the game.
That’s a nice mid-air pass to recognize Kessler was going to have the easier finish. The playmaking hasn’t been perfect (he also has a career high in turnovers), but he’s just been moving the ball more often than before.
Defense
Last year, the Jazz’s defense was 4.6 points per 100 possessions worse when Collins was on the floor. This year, it’s 5.1 points per 100 possessions better. What’s changed?
I think he just generally has been trying harder and doing more to be in the right defensive position early. Again, that showed itself on the game’s final play.
Overall, it’s just been a tremendous season for Collins. I still don’t know how much longer he’ll be a Jazzman, but at least for the remainder of the year — and he’s certainly raised his stock around the league.
2. Minnesota’s draft pick
Thanks to the Jazz’s win tonight, the Timberwolves moved to the No. 9 spot in the Western Conference. If the play-in tournament were to go to form, the Jazz would have a second lottery pick.
(Tankathon.com)
In that way, tonight’s Jazz win was actually good.
Except for that I think the Wolves are pretty darn likely to outperform their competition over the final 20 games. They have the second-easiest remaining competition left, with just a .438 winning percentage left for the rest of the year — games against the Hornets, Sixers, Nets, Spurs, and, yes, two more against the Utah Jazz remaining.
It adds up to an estimated 81% chance to actually make the playoffs according to DunksAndThrees, giving the Jazz somewhere in the range of the 16th pick. That’s obviously useful, but not as nice as getting additional odds in the Cooper Flagg race would be.
Meanwhile, the Jazz moved from a tie for second to outright third in the tank race tonight. They play the Pelicans on Sunday, who are just 0.5 games ahead of them in fourth. If history is any guide, expect a massive injury report for the Jazz in that game as they try to lose it.
The difference between third and fourth is big for the Jazz — third provides them the best-possible odds for the top picks, while fourth lowers them and makes it quite likely they end up with the fifth, sixth, or even seventh overall selection.
3. Mike Conley’s career
Mike Conley had three points and six assists tonight.
It’s been a rough year for the 37-year-old. He’s shooting just 37% from the field, including just 34% from two-point range — the 3-point shot is still there, but he can’t get too many off anymore. Everything else is largely still there, with assists, turnovers, and rebounds all within career norms, but averaging just eight points per game reflects a significant decrease in offensive threat.
The optimistic view is that hand injuries are the reason behind the downturn — that was Minnesota coach Chris Finch’s opinion when asked about Conley’s season before the game. And that would make some sense; after all, a sprained finger might impact a player’s touch around the basket.
But also... 37 years of age is a pretty reasonable time to see a downturn in a career. It might be that, too. It probably is.
If it is that, Conley held on longer than many thought he would. Truth be told, the Jazz thought he was nearly washed in 2022, when he struggled in the Jazz’s playoff series against Dallas. They weren’t worried about him being the team’s starting point guard in what was supposed to be a tank year after trading away Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert.
They were wrong: Conley still had another two years left. His leadership played a huge part in the Jazz exceeding expectations to begin 2022-23, and his on-court play was pretty scintillating too — he had the best passing season of his career that year. The Jazz eventually forced a trade at the deadline, getting just a protected first-round pick back for Conley, Malik Beasley, Jarred Vanderbilt, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and two second-round picks. It’s probably the worst trade of the Ainge era from a Jazz point of view.
Conley played a big role for Minnesota in their run last year, too, though it was cut short in the conference finals.
That’s been a major theme during Conley’s career: proving doubters wrong. Matt Moore’s rant hating on Conley’s first contract extension is legendary, one of the earliest moments where Twitter’s format really allowed folks to speak their mind about a piece of news so clearly and quickly. Most thought Conley was a bad player — and instead, he significantly outperformed that deal and became a Memphis legend. Heck, he also played up to the max contract he got next, which, at the time, was the largest deal in NBA history.
So maybe he’s still got one more turn left. Minnesota’s certainly hoping so, as he’s under contract for about $10 million in 2025-26.
I’d love to see it. Conley’s role as one of the NBA’s nicest guys is well documented, something I certainly experienced when he was in Utah. Maybe 38 will be great for Minnesota Mike.
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