Three thoughts on the Utah Jazz’s 120-116 overtime loss to the Los Angeles Clippers from Utah Jazz beat writer Andy Larsen.
1. Kyle Filipowski’s career night
Kyle Filipowski got the start tonight in lieu of Walker Kessler, who sat out of the game with a thumb sprain. Filipowski responded with the best game of his career: 20 points on 8-of-12 shooting, adding 10 rebounds in 37 minutes before fouling out in overtime.
This was his toughest basket of the night, and it’s a nice move for the big man:
The most Filipowski-centric part of the game came to open the second half. Clearly, the Jazz spotted the Clippers' defensive approach to the rookie big man, and decided to take advantage. L.A. didn’t consider him an offensive threat, so the Jazz put the ball in his hands at the top of the arc, and let him cook. He scored on three straight possessions, all easy baskets.
To be sure: if he continues to do this, defenses will change how they guard him, including by, you know, actually guarding him. But having Filipowski being able to capably maneuver and shoot from the perimeter allows the Jazz to play five-out ball, which gives them a lot of flexibility in a potential playoff series in the future.
The Clippers are the masters of the five-out look; I’m not sure any coach in the league goes to five perimeter players more than Ty Lue, but Ivica Zubac also gives them a traditional big. I think Lue’s flexibility on the matter has won them playoff series they shouldn’t have, and to have Filipowski look like a future capable option at doing the same is really valuable, especially for a second-round pick.
2. Two more Lauri Markkanen facts
If you haven’t seen it already, check out the other article published today about Lauri Markkanen’s numbers.
Yes, they’re down this year, but no one around the team seems at all worried about it — because they’ve intentionally made life harder for him this year. In short, they’re experimenting with his game to see if they can get more out of it. Truthfully, the answer right now is “not yet.” But it’s probably worth giving the full season and maybe an offseason before giving up and reverting back to Markkanen’s plan from the last two seasons.
But here’s a couple of other Markkanen stats:
First, did you know he leads the league in catch-and-shoot shots at 8.1 per game? Brandon Miller, Malik Beasley, Victor Wembanyama, and Klay Thompson round out the rest of the list — and all of those guys have much, much better set-up men playing next to him than Markkanen does. (LaMelo, Cade Cunningham, CP3, and formerly Luka, respectively.) I think that goes a long way to show how difficult of shots Markkanen is taking.
Second, the Jazz are so much better in transition when he’s on the floor. When the Jazz get a steal, the Jazz are 11% more likely to turn that into a fast break with Markkanen on the floor than when he’s not. On those possessions, they have a +18 point higher net rating when he’s out there.
That gives significant credence to the idea that he’s knocking down the open ones, which do frequently come in transition. It also shows what a unique player he is, being able to move at his size and create more efficient scoring opportunities for his team.
Anyway. Lauri Markkanen: still very good.
3. How should the Jazz decide who to sit?
The Jazz almost won this game, and probably intended to lose it more comfortably. They likely hoped the absence of Walker Kessler and Collin Sexton would be enough to push them to a loss, and they ended up being right — by the skin of their teeth.
While the Jazz were nine-point underdogs after the injury report came out, the game was pushed to overtime, a virtual tie. Should they have done more to push towards losing? Should they have sat more players as they chase those lotto balls?
Right now, DunksAndThrees and Basketball Reference predict the Jazz will finish with 23-59 and 22-60 records, respectively. In both cases, those projections push them to finish third, which is enough to give them maximum odds at Cooper Flagg, et al.
But what if you wanted to push it further? What if you wanted to ensure that the team won fewer than 20 games? That would mean a 21% win percentage the rest of the year (the team currently has a 24% win percentage).
In order to do that, you’d need to sit more players. Take tonight’s game as the most relevant example. When the game began, they were considered a nine-point underdog and had a 28% chance of winning it given the injury report, per DunksAndThrees.com. It would take pushing the spread to 12 points to have a 21% chance of winning.
What if you had sat Markkanen, too? He’s about a +2.9 player per 100 possessions (per EPM), and you’d replace his minutes with Micah Potter, who’s about a -2.9 player. Markkanen usually plays about 62 possessions per night, so sitting him and playing Potter would be worth about an expected 3.5 points per game. Hey, that’s would mean a 12.5-point spread — that’s the 20% mark right there!
You can imagine, somewhere in a dark room in the hallways of the Jazz’s offices, someone making this cold calculation. The Jazz’s first game out of the break is against OKC, and they’re currently expected to lose by 15. They have an 17% chance to win. No sitting needed. The second game is against the Rockets, where they’re only a five point underdog and have a 35% chance to win. They need six points: it’s time to sit Markkanen, Kessler, and Collins!
The analytics revolution has already transformed the game, leading the league’s best teams to NBA Finals wins. It can also help the NBA’s worst teams lose more. Insert a smiling devil emoji here.
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