Three thoughts on the Utah Jazz’s 112-111 loss to the Indiana Pacers from Salt Lake Tribune Jazz beat writer Andy Larsen.
1. Was Lauri’s gamble a good idea?
The Jazz held a 12-point lead with six minutes left in this one, but lost it through some pretty garden variety turnovers, iffy defense, and some made shots from the Pacers.
I could break down the run possession-by-possession — and that’s what the Jazz will do tomorrow in film. But I suspect there’s not a ton of interest in that given that the Jazz aren’t really trying to win anyway. In many ways, this was a good loss for the Jazz, and they’re now within just three wins of the Wizards for the worst record in the league.
But I do think it’s interesting from a conceptual point of view to break down one decision: Lauri Markkanen’s attempted free-throw miss with 18 seconds to go. Down 2, Markkanen was sent to the line, but he missed the first free throw. A subsequent make would have meant the Jazz were still down one, without the ball.
So Will Hardy decided to have Markkanen miss the free throw, try to get the rebound, and get a basket that way. It didn’t work — Markkanen was called for a lane violation.
Is that a good move? It’s interesting to do the math. We’ll rely on Inpredictable’s Win Probability calculator to figure this out.
• If the Jazz had been successful in getting the rebound, then scored a two for a tie game, it would have been Pacers ball with 18 seconds left. That would have meant the Jazz had a 38% chance to win.
• If the Jazz had been successful in getting the rebound, then kicked it out for three and made that, it would have meant a 61% chance of the Jazz winning.
• If Markkanen had made the free throw, the Jazz down one with 18 seconds left and no ball would have given them a 18% chance of winning.
• Finally, the situation that did occur: if Markkanen misses, and the Jazz don’t get the rebound, they’re now down two without the ball. There’s just an 8% chance of winning.
So by missing, the Jazz are risking a 10% drop in win probability, in order to chase either a 20% gain by making a two or a 43% chance gain by making a three.
In the two-point case, the Jazz need a 33% chance of getting the rebound and making the putback in order to succeed. Doing both is difficult — generally, teams have just a 14% chance of getting an offensive rebound off free throws. But if Markkanen misses it well, and the Jazz have a height advantage... maybe there’s a case.
The three-point case is friendlier, if things work out: the Jazz just need an 18% chance of getting a rebound and making a three. But given that the Jazz’s odds of making any given three are about 35%, they’d need to be able to get the free-throw rebound more than half the time... hard to do.
In other words, I think having Markkanen miss that is probably the wrong thing to do. There are things I’m not considering in this analysis (What if a foul occurs on a rebound, or on the putback? How different are the odds of getting a rebound if Markkanen tries to make vs. tries to miss? And so on). But ultimately, I think I’d rather Markkanen tries to make it and play the foul game after.
Unless, of course, you’re trying to lose. Then, it’s the right call, in my opinion.
2. Keyonte George’s passes
Keyonte George had 11 assists tonight, tying a career high.
Most of those assists were pretty perfunctory, when you watch them. But there were a couple, both to Jordan Clarkson, that show off some pretty good ability to read pick and roll.
The passes are pretty off target, but Clarkson is pretty great at finishing off-target passes. That second one in particular is a really nice read to get so early in the pick and roll. George says he’s worked on those longer passes: “I feel like the lead guards in this league can make all those passes,” he said. He’s right.
And then there are times where it gets ugly. He had six turnovers tonight — a couple of miscommunications, and a couple of puzzling passes, including this one.
I think George desperately wants to be a good player. He watches a ton of film, he loves the game. But like a lot of young players, he’s sometimes confused on how best to make his mark: is it through pull-up shooting? Distributing? Defense? (Okay, with George, it’s not that last one.)
That process of figuring out his strengths and weaknesses at the NBA level is a significant one, and it’s going to take a while to complete it.
3. Reactions to the Luka trade
It’s interesting: in the NBA, the biggest trades feel like just as big of moments as the Finals games — or maybe even bigger. I can tell you where I was when the Clippers signed Kawhi Leonard and traded for Paul George, or even where I was when the Suns traded for Kevin Durant. The night the Mavs missed out on getting DeAndre Jordan? Legendary.
The Luka Doncic trade was definitely one of those moments. Heck, in my mind, it set a new high water mark. The move itself would have been shocking even if it made sense, with zero warning. That it made no sense at all, that the Mavs were essentially setting their franchise’s future alight, made it even more indelible.
That’s how it felt for us writers, us fans. But it also felt that way for players and executives. In the last couple of days, I’ve talked to a lot of those folks, and they were all absolutely stunned.
Another common emotion? Anger. Many teams — not just the Jazz, but definitely the Jazz — had set themselves up with piles of assets just for this moment, just in case one of the league’s stars was randomly moved. And then the one elite franchise player who is moved is done in the dead of night, with no warning, talking to only one team? Are you serious? And that it was the freaking Los Angeles Lakers? It’s insult to injury.
That didn’t come up in the on the record conversations. Will Hardy largely declined to comment on the deal (He said “that has nothing to do with our team.” When pressed — his team was in the deal! — he said “the part that you’re asking about had nothing to do with our team,” which, fair.)
Markkanen said his sleep was interrupted: “I’m about to go to bed, and right before I’m actually going to bed, I just hear my phone starting beeping — that was our group chat. So that’s how I found out. And obviously I didn’t go to bed, and I’m into social media after that,” he said. Markkanen is one of us.
But George’s reaction was perhaps the most interesting. He’s from the Dallas area. He grew up a Mavs fan.
“I got all type of calls from my friends, family. They were all asking me if it was real,” he said. “I did think he (Shams) was hacked.”
“That low key spooked me. I honestly never thought I would ever see him leave, you know. But no, I barely could go to sleep,” George continued. “And honestly, this time of year is crazy. It actually really makes you sit down and think.”
It does indeed, Keyonte. Two days until the deadline.
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