Three thoughts on the Utah Jazz’s 136-100 win over the Miami Heat from Salt Lake Tribune Jazz beat writer Andy Larsen.
1. How good are the healthy Jazz?
The Jazz are bad, that’s clear from their record. The healthy Jazz? Not so bad.
That was on display as the Jazz absolutely throttled the Heat on Saturday night. Yes, the Heat are in disarray in the wake of Jimmy Butler’s trade demand and resulting suspension. But they also had a 17-15 record coming in, including a 5-5 record without Butler. They weren’t usually pushovers.
Still, the Jazz kicked them while they were down in Miami. From the second quarter of this game forward, the Jazz absolutely played the Heat off the court, passing around them on offense for easy threes and layups on offense, and making them look foolish on defense.
It also added to some building evidence that the Jazz are improving, and actually a pretty decent team if they have their pieces.
Their starting lineup tonight — and, I think it’s fair to say, their preferred starting lineup at this point — has also been pretty good on the season. Keyonte George, Collin Sexton, Lauri Markkanen, John Collins, and Walker Kessler lined up together are outscoring opponents by 2.9 points per 100 possessions.
Take a look at those players. I think it’s fair to say Keyonte George is still finding his place in the league. But the others are pretty solid, established, you-know-what-you’re-gonna-get NBA players. All are in that 15 to 20 PER range, all of them are getting $15 million or more per year if they were on the open free agent market. Markkanen’s the best of them, but Collins and Sexton are playing really well, and Walker Kessler has made himself into one of the NBA’s best interior-specialist centers in the NBA.
Someone asked on Twitter if this team could be a play-in team if they wanted to be. The answer is yes, perhaps — in the Eastern Conference. In the Western Conference, no shot, with the more-talented Kings and Suns currently in the 11 and 12 seeds.
But we also know the Jazz don’t want to be a decent team. I do suspect that the Jazz make some sort of move in the injury report or in the trade market soon to prevent this lineup playing together for much longer.
2. Brice Sensabaugh’s career-high 34 points
We called his 20-point night against the Sixers three games ago perhaps the best night of his career — so suffice it to say that a 34-point, 12-18 FG game is definitely the best night of his career.
The biggest positive point is the shot. Sensabaugh referenced it in his post-game interview: it’s not that he’s forcing these high-scoring games to come. Instead, he’s spacing the floor, re-spacing well, and then generally taking advantage of spot-up opportunities or driving chances that come off of them. The 7-11 from three performance was responsible for the majority of his points tonight.
But him being able to knock those down at a great rate is absolutely huge for his career. Last year, he shot 29% from deep. This year? Tonight’s performance pushes him up to 40.5% for the season. And, frankly, the evidence from his G-League career (where he shot 39%) and his collegiate career (where he shot 40%) would tell you that last year’s NBA performance was the outlier, while this one is more real.
It’ll be interesting to see if teams start to react to that improvement, and start staying more attached to him on the perimeter. If they do, though, that plays into the future Jazz’s hands as well, creating more space for the Kessler lobs, Markkanen coming off screens, and so on.
If the Jazz do make moves to hamper their starting lineup, I’d like to see Sensabaugh as the replacement in it. In the last five, the Jazz started either Svi Mykhailiuk or Johnny Juzang in that role with Collins out, but Sensabaugh is younger and more promising than either player — and I do just want to see what he looks like next to other good players more often.
3. HEAT Culture
I think there are basically two NBA franchises that have a recognizable positive culture that has been part of their identity for more than a couple seasons: the San Antonio Spurs and Miami Heat. It’s no coincidence that those teams also feature the two longest-tenured coaches in the NBA.
(Who else? OKC’s culture is incredible right now, but was rough two seasons ago. Boston’s certainly has had their share or more of capitulations under pressure. Denver’s culture is actually pretty ugly right now. Houston’s tough right now, but was the softest team in the NBA two seasons ago too.)
The Heat’s culture was always about work. They prided themselves on working harder than their opponents, being more detailed, being more prepared, being more physical. Jimmy Butler was one of the tentpoles of that culture, and let’s be clear, work worked: it got them two long-shot NBA Finals appearances nobody expected.
By now, though, Butler had become frustrated the team around him wasn’t better. That’s because the Heat were victims of their own success: they paid middling players like Duncan Robinson and Terry Rozier, Butler himself is probably overpaid now, and the team used most of its draft picks on past additions now gone. There was no realistic way for them to compete in the trade market for stars, their packages were near-garbage, though Heat fans never acknowledged this. It’s the NBA’s contention cycle at work.
Even a culture as well established and as embraced as Miami’s — they print it in the center of their court, on their jerseys, in their hallways, and their announcers scream it from the rooftops — is exceedingly fragile.
For the Jazz, trying to establish their own culture... it’s important to understand that what is being built now will have only a minor impact on what’s to come. In the end, the primary two factors to a team’s culture are its win-loss record and its best player, and the Jazz have neither right now.
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