AJ Dybantsa is a Cougar. BYU fans can reasonably go wild.
You know by now that Dybantsa is the No. 1 high prospect in the country, as ranked by all four of the big four recruiting ranking sites: ESPN, Rivals, 247sports, and On3. But why? What makes him considered to be a better prospect than, say, either of Carlos Boozer’s twin sons, Cameron and Cayden? What makes him better than any other player in high school right now?
Let’s break down the 17-year-old’s on-court talents.
One-on-one brilliance
There’s a trendy term in the basketball scouting community right now: “advantage creation.” Players who are good at the skill can create advantages for their offense by driving the paint, forcing the defense to rotate or risk giving up scoring opportunities.
The phrase is the least fun way of describing the following idea: There are some dudes you just can’t guard.
AJ Dybantsa is one of those dudes. He’s consistently excellent at using crossovers, hesitations, jabs, head fakes — you name it, he’s got it — to get his defender just slightly off balance, then blowing by them with an explosive first step in either direction to start driving downhill.
But what makes Dybantsa special is that his aforementioned quickness is emphasized by his physical traits. He’s been measured at this year’s Nike Hoop Summit at a legitimate 6-9, with a 6-11 wingspan and an 8-11 standing reach. And he’s vertically explosive, too, with some huge dunks around the rim.
So the typical Dybantsa highlight features him virtually pantsing a defender with a crossover or three and that first step, gliding through to the rim with relative ease thanks to his size, and finishing way over his defender thanks to his leaping ability. It’s fun to watch.
He currently leads all of high school basketball in one-on-one scoring and overall dunks, according to Synergy Sports.
All of this together in one package doesn’t come around often. Legitimately, there’s a good case that Dybantsa is the best drive-to-score prospect we’ve seen in the last five years.
Shooting and passing
A lot of players with elite skills in breaking the paint and finishing struggle when going to the next level, though, as they find longer help and more help waiting for them at the rim. Their shooting or passing games don’t measure up.
Dybantsa’s different; he’s well-rounded enough to be a threat elsewhere. He takes a lot of pull-up threes, and makes a decent chunk of them, rising over nearly all of his contests. There’s a huge stepback he’s flashed as well, which makes the shot pretty impossible to defend.
Look at how big of a step he takes here:
He shoots 38% on catch-and-shoots, a good sign too. His form looks clean, and he’s regularly taking deep ones beyond the high school line.
He’s also not a selfish player, he’s clearly willing to make the open pass when it’s there. Being 6-9 and having his length and athleticism really helps get passes off other players couldn’t make. He also has good vision.
This is a nice find for example:
One place for potential improvement — I think he could get his passes off a little bit more quickly. It’s a beautiful pass, but the shooter was open a dribble earlier, too, and the only real reason it still works is that the defender, No. 22, is lollygagging.
I would say Dybantsa has good but not great feel as a passer; he’s not going to be confused with Luka Doncic out there. But there’s a lot of potential there, in a way that kind of reminds me of Jayson Tatum. Tatum, 6-8, long, and a primarily iso scorer, like Dybantsa averaged just two assists per game in college. He’s averaging 5.7 per game now in the NBA as he’s learned to read the floor.
Last August, Dybantsa called Tatum his “favorite player” — though on “First Take” Tuesday, Dybantsa said it is currently Kevin Durant. Regardless, Dybantsa’s more similar to the former than the latter.
Defense
Right now, Dybantsa’s a promising defender who, when he focuses, looks really, really good. For stretches, he defends full court, moves his feet well, shifts side to side to stay in front.
There are also stretches where he clearly turns off the proverbial switch. He admitted so on ESPN today, noting that his “Effort’s gotta improve, weak-side defense has gotta improve,” when asked about it by Stephen A. Smith. It’s good that he knows this.
The length and athleticism are major tools, though. Right now, they allow him to make up for his mistakes. Watch this play, for example: you can see him almost surprised when his man catches the ball, and even jog through the screen. Then he switches on and somehow blocks this pull-up midrange shot. The switch may go on and off, but when it turns on, the highlights are bright.
He won’t be able to get away with that consistently against top college opposition and nearly ever in the NBA. Keeping Dybantsa in position to be able to use his athleticism defensively more consistently is a key.
I’m very curious to watch where Dybantsa goes defensively at the next level — and how BYU coach Kevin Young gets the best from him next season.
Overall
Look, Dybantsa’s still 17. There are innumerable ways for his career to go wrong. They may happen.
But Dybantsa has a remarkable package already — if the NBA allowed 17-year-olds to play at the top level, like European leagues do, he’d already be playing against the pros. He’s got the size of an NBA player, the athleticism of an NBA player, and even the skill of an NBA player already.
(Francisco Kjolseth | The Salt Lake Tribune) Utah Prep Academy’s AJ Dybantsa, a star basketball player and potential BYU commit, celebrates a teammates basket as he plays in the 5 for the Fight National Hoopfest in Pleasant Grove on Tuesday, Nov. 26, 2024.
There are certainly things for Dybantsa to improve on, whether it be the speed of his reads or his possession-by-possession defensive effort... but what we already have seen on the basketball court limits his downside. The worst case, barring catastrophic injury or on-court issues, is probably something like Andrew Wiggins' college and NBA career.
The upside is through the roof. Dybantsa compared himself to Tracy McGrady and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on Tuesday. Honestly? I think the former is a pretty apt comparison. Usually high school players are out of their gourds when comparing themselves to Hall of Famers — but Dybantsa has the skill to back it up. He may even lead the NBA in scoring one day, like McGrady did.
It’s worth noting that top recruits don’t always carry their teams to greatness; just ask Anthony Edwards' 16-16 Georgia squad in 2020. BYU hasn’t won the national title, the Big 12, or even an NCAA tournament appearance as the result of Tuesday’s announcement.
But if you’re a BYU fan — heck, if you’re a fan of basketball in our state — you have to be pretty excited about the prospect of watching a player this gifted up close for a year. Jazz CEO Danny Ainge might hope he stays longer.
