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4 big questions to watch for as the Utah Jazz enter a season full of unknowns

Are fans really ready to embrace a rebuild? We’re about to find out.

While calling the upcoming campaign a “season of discovery” is probably the optimistic way of looking at things for the Utah Jazz — there is a nugget of truth to that.

To be sure, the Jazz’s most important goal of this season is setting themselves up to get star-level talent in the future, likely through the NBA draft. That means losing. But the team will also benefit from that future star having a quality roster around him, and this season can be really useful in creating that.

So what are the biggest things we can learn from this upcoming season?

Here are four things to watch over the next seven months:

1. How good are the young guys?

The team’s front office has repeatedly referred to seven players — all under the age of 23 — as their top priority this season: Walker Kessler, Keyonte George, Taylor Hendricks, Brice Sensabaugh, Cody Williams, Isaiah Collier, and Kyle Filipowski.

The question is basically: How good are those seven players? The history of the NBA draft would tell you that only three or four of them will be long-term NBA players. Will the Jazz beat that rate? Which of the seven will make the cut?

(Rick Egan | The Salt Lake Tribune) Utah Jazz guard Collin Sexton (2) and Utah Jazz guard Keyonte George (3) go for the ball along with Houston Rockets forward Amen Thompson (1), in NBA preseason action between the Utah Jazz and the Houston Rockets, at the Delta Center, on Monday, Oct. 7, 2024.

But of course, the hope isn’t just that they’ll be NBA contributors, but that one or two of those players become real building blocks. Is Keyonte George the point guard of the future? Can Cody Williams or Taylor Hendricks make a consistent impact rather than just show flashes? Can Walker Kessler become the long-term starter at center? Their performances through 82 games will reveal a lot about their Jazz futures.

2. What do they do with the veterans?

This is a team prioritizing youth development, but four veterans are still earning major minutes in preseason: Lauri Markkanen, Collin Sexton, John Collins, and Jordan Clarkson.

Markkanen, the team says, is part of the future core — and they put their money where their mouth was, with a near-maximum extension that keeps him under contract through 2029. It also prevents him from being traded this season.

(Rick Egan | The Salt Lake Tribune) Utah Jazz guard Jordan Clarkson (00) forward Lauri Markkanen (23) and forward John Collins (20) react as the Jazz take their first lead of the game, in NBA preseason action between the Utah Jazz and the Houston Rockets, at the Delta Center, on Monday, Oct. 7, 2024.

The other three, though, have been frequently mentioned in trade talks. All three have two seasons left on their contracts, including 2024-25. Sexton is paid about $19 million per season, Collins $26 million per season, and Clarkson $14 million per season — and, so far, the trade market has balked at those prices. Right now, Sexton is the best player of the three, but all three are probably ideally bench players on a title-competing roster.

If they’re not traded, how much will they play? The Jazz showed a willingness to sit players at the end of last season even when they were healthy enough to play — could that start earlier this season? And if they do dress for games, the coaching staff will have to make choices: Brice Sensabaugh or Clarkson? Kyle Filipowski or Collins?

3. Can they avoid winning 30 games again?

A record with about 30 wins is the NBA’s version of purgatory: too bad to sniff playoff contention, too good to get a difference maker in the draft. Right now, draft experts typically see the top five of this draft as having significant All-Star chances; finishing with the No. 9 pick (as the Jazz did in 2023) or the No. 10 pick (as they did in 2024) would be a real missed opportunity.

(Rick Egan | The Salt Lake Tribune) Utah Jazz head coach Will Hardy chats with Jazz owner Ryan Smith,in NBA preseason action between the Utah Jazz and the Houston Rockets, at the Delta Center, on Monday, Oct. 7, 2024.

But right now, the Jazz are projected to win 28.5 games by Las Vegas oddsmakers, more than five other NBA teams. That sixth slot would give them just a 37% chance at one of those All-Star-level prospects.

Perhaps the most likely outcome is that the Jazz push themselves below that bar, through ineptitude true or forced. There is, though, the chance that one or two of the young players pop, the team stays healthy all year, they win more than they should at home due to the Jazz’s altitude advantage, and all of a sudden, they’re back in purgatory. A third straight season without a top draft pick and without a playoff berth would be a virtually wasted year.

4. Will the fans stay invested?

Jazz fans are about as diehard as they come. Through a rebuilding period in the mid-2000s, and another in the mid-2010s, a significant base of fans remained. Attendance at the Delta Center remained relatively high, though short of sellouts, and TV ratings were still above average compared to other NBA markets.

But there’s also more going on in the Utah sports scene now: The arrival of the Utah Hockey Club gives fans another sport to watch, radio and TV personalities another sport to discuss. BYU and Utah football are both interesting to begin the year as well, and BYU basketball at least looks to be competitive or better in the Big 12.

(Francisco Kjolseth | The Salt Lake Tribune) Utah Jazz fans dance during an NBA basketball game between the Utah Jazz and the Atlanta Hawks on Friday, March 15, 2024, in Salt Lake City.

Demographic pointers can be read positively or negatively. On one hand, there are a lot more Utahns than there used to be! On the other hand, the percentage of Utah’s population that was born out of state has increased, and those folks may not be as invested in the Jazz as those born in Utah. Some former season ticket holders have been displaced by high ticket prices at the Delta Center, but the team has been able to fill those seats so far with other interested folks.

Will Utahns stay engaged with the Jazz in 2024 if they struggle? Or will attention turn elsewhere? The true test will be the season’s doldrums in February, March, and April.