Even with Lauri Markkanen locked up — signed to a new $238 million extension that will make it impossible to trade him next season — oddsmakers are still skeptical about the Utah Jazz’s chances.
The sportsbooks have made their expectations clear: The Jazz will still be mediocre or worse next season. FanDuel allows people to bet on if the Jazz will win more or fewer than 27.5 games next season, while Caesars holds the line at 29.5.
A win total in that range is absolute NBA purgatory. It’s too bad to even sniff the playoffs, even with 20 teams now making the postseason in one way or another. But it’s too good to have likely odds at a top-four pick, where the draft holds the franchise-changing prospects — winning 27-30 games would put the Jazz as the sixth- to ninth-worst team in the projected NBA.
It would be, in the eyes of some, another wasted season, after one or two of those already since the Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert trades.
So how do the Jazz avoid that? Let’s put you in the shoes of Danny Ainge and company as they decide the Jazz’s path forward.
Path 1: Get good
This would be the most straightforward path. If you want to get better at winning basketball games, why not just add good basketball players immediately?
They could go this way. The Jazz do have lots of draft assets available to trade, though most of them look like end-of-round picks at the moment. Still, they could trade for a star on the distressed market with those picks, someone like Zach LaVine or Brandon Ingram. Heck, you could even trade for both. On the free agent market, you could give the remaining cap space to Isaac Okoro, a young, helpful defender.
Doing all of that would make the Jazz significantly better, maybe even 15 wins better. Their lineup would include three quite good but sub-MVP-level stars — the closest comparison is probably the 2021 Chicago Bulls or the 2024 New Orleans Pelicans. Those teams won 46 and 49 games, respectively, and made the playoffs.
The problem is that it’s hard to then create a path forward to becoming a 60-win team, or a true NBA contender. Jazz General Manager Justin Zanik wrapped up the problem succinctly in April: “We’re not trying to say, ‘Hey, Lauri, we’ll make you happy because you’ve never made the playoffs, so we’re going to burn all our picks and get some marginal improvement from an overpaid player so that maybe we’ll be a seven seed.’”
While Zanik criticized that path above, the Jazz did chase it to some degree this summer anyway when they explored possible deals for Mikal Bridges and Paul George. It may still well be the Jazz’s strategy.
Path 2: Status quo, try to win
Sure, on paper, this group may not be a playoff contender. But the games aren’t played on paper. What if you gave them a real shot?
John Collins has had better seasons than he had last year, maybe he could rehabilitate his value? The same is true for Jordan Clarkson, and even Drew Eubanks. Maybe they can figure it out, giving the Jazz a solid squad?
And what about the young players? Keyonte George could take an unexpected leap to become a top guard in the West. Maybe Taylor Hendricks could put together his prodigious athletic talents. Could Cody Williams be an impact player right away, like his brother was? Is Kyle Filipowski ready to be Kelly Olynyk? Can Collin Sexton’s upward trajectory continue? Maybe!
All of a sudden, if most of that happens, the Jazz have a very deep team, well situated for the rigors of the NBA season. They’re not real contenders, but could surprise with a Play-In tournament spot. That could be a baseline for future growth. It could also simply mean missed opportunities to improve in this year’s draft, and there’s no guarantee that improvements seen next season would carry over to the future, either.
Path 3: Status quo, try to lose
Or you could keep this roster together, and not-so-sneakily try to lose?
Oh, Markkanen, is your shoulder still in distress? You know how important to our franchise’s future you are, please sit. ... Sexton, we know how difficult hamstring injuries, darn it, maybe it would be best for you to rest. ... Jordan Clarkson, it’s time to work on your golf game. Bryce Sensabaugh, it appears your defense is still not up to snuff? Maybe you need 50 games of starting NBA minutes to see if you can improve? ... Isaiah Collier, let’s see if your struggles at USC last year can be improved against NBA competition.
Jazz fans know from the last two seasons: When this team wants to lose, it is highly capable of doing so. They had the worst record in the NBA over the season’s final two months in 2023-24, and the games were no more positive. The Jazz’s playbook is clear: Sit your best players some of the time, play the young guys who simply don’t excel at the game’s finer points yet. Turnovers will ensue, as will defeats.
This is a pretty rough developmental environment, though. The “no free minutes” philosophy from head coach Will Hardy gets pushed aside when the bad play is coming fast. Young players like George even regressed by the end of the year.
You probably can’t just sit the veterans all 82 games, either. So at some point, they’ll need to take at least some playing time away from youth. Having your veterans sit out at all when they can play also isn’t a great way for them to stay engaged for the future, either. Grumblings happen, culture may suffer.
But you would likely get a high draft pick in the 2025 NBA draft. Maybe Cooper Flagg.
Path 4: The fire sale culture reset
The reporting shows there simply isn’t interest in the NBA trade market for Collins, Clarkson, and maybe even Sexton at this moment in time.
But that’s as the Jazz have been looking to get value back in return for them. What if the Jazz added value going out, incentivizing other teams to take on the contracts? You could trade, for example, Clarkson, Collins and a first-round pick for Ben Simmons’ expiring contract, for example, then waive Simmons in the same way they’ve done with Russell Westbrook twice now.
Then, you’d be a truly rebuilding team for the first time, with only Markkanen a sure-fire veteran and leader. The young players would get maximum playing time and developmental resources. The youth could play both starter and backup minutes, unbothered by even the risk of losing time to a veteran. You could probably even play Markkanen in this construct, getting him and the younger players valuable chemistry that might pay dividends later.
And in 2025, you’d hope to use that cap space on either a good player or more assets in return. Of course, this is the most sure-fire plan to earn the best possible draft pick in 2025.
But you’d be giving up a future first-round pick (or whatever value used to lose the veteran contracts) for only those softer reasons. The team would also be bereft of veteran leadership beyond Markkanen, who tends to be pretty quiet. Finally, the rebuilding road ahead would be long and uncertain.
So ... which path would you choose?
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