Gordon Monson: In this NBA draft, the Utah Jazz wish upon a star, and wish they had one (or two)

It’s always been a crapshoot, this drafting deal, especially at the slots from where the Utah Jazz typically do their selecting. And it was no different in the draft’s first round on Wednesday night, a round that was particularly shrouded.

After all the reports about scrambling some or all of their picks, Danny Ainge and Justin Zanik went ahead and used what was originally theirs at 10 and 29. And now, everyone’s supposed to read and react to what they’ve done. The problem there is, nobody has much of a clue — not Ainge, not Zanik, not Will Hardy, not any so-called expert, not anyone who has studied the prospects, not anyone who has casually observed, not you, not me. Nobody. Not really.

What are we left with, then? We can do what the Jazz just did. We can guess. And if you’re a fan, you can hope they’ll get lucky. I talked with a highly-respected longtime NBA coach, a man who was once named the league’s coach of the year, the other night, and he used a hand grenade of a word to describe and define Wednesday night’s process: luck.

“You have to be lucky,” he said.

This was a coach, an evaluator and organizer of basketball talent, who had worked in that realm for longer than most of the folks who read this have been alive. A smart, hard-working individual who put his mind and heart and soul and the worn tread on his high-mileage Converse Chuck Taylors into getting talent judgments right. He studied the numbers and every other sort of data, watched the film, analyzed the speed and skill, measured the physical and mental and attitudinal aspects of a thousand or more top-flight players, and his conclusion now is that the better part of success in it comes down to good fortune?

“Exactly,” he said.

So … how did the Jazz do in the 2024 draft’s first round?

Beats me. And it may or may not beat them.

Essentially, they picked and prayed.

Success rates of the past give some hope that clever choices were made via the Jazz’s selection of forward Cody Williams, a player who slid a bit because he needs body work and otherwise holds promise on account of his skills and his defense having real upside, and guard Isaiah Collier, a player who once, in his youth, was thought to be an absolute premier talent, but who had since been downgraded, nearly slipping out of the first round. Both selections are risks that could be rewarded. Another scenario is that they won’t launch a club that’s now losing more often than it wins, not in any significant way. Unless, Lady Luck has swooped in and smiled on the Jazz. It’s possible. Not probable.

Jazz fans can always look back on the picks of John Stockton (16th) and Karl Malone (13th), and, more recently, Donovan Mitchell (13th) and Rudy Gobert (27th). And if they want to reach into the ridiculous, they can remember what the Nuggets did with the 41st selection of the 2014 draft, when they reeled in the best player on the planet in Nikola Jokic. Think about that for a minute: The best basketball minds on God’s green earth, fistfuls of them, thought 40 players were better, in better position to help them that year than Jokic was.

Mind boggling.

Nailing the longest of shots happens. It just doesn’t happen all that frequently. And echoing what Frank Layden said when the Jazz took the future Hall of Famer Stockton at 16, the Nuggets would have to admit that if they really knew Jokic was going to be what he turned out to be, they wouldn’t have sat on that pick so long before making it.

How invested is the good Lady in what the Jazz pulled off here will be manifested to them in the days, months, years ahead, not today. It will take what it always takes: time. Hints may arrive quickly, ahead of determinations, but probably only in small increments.

I would say “good luck” to Williams and Collier, but that’s not the way this works. If they are so blessed, they’ll bring the luck with them — by way of their unsheathed talent and diligence.

Meantime, everyone around here, including the Jazz themselves, will break these guys down and, in some cases, promote them, pretending to know with certainty whether Utah was wise in its decision-making. They’ll assign grades and make proclamations, but in all but the rarest of circumstances, knowledge will be vapor and sometimes a mirage, at least for the time being.

Members of the Jazz staff likely worked their tails to get these picks right. They did their jobs as best they could, same as when they drafted themselves dry with Enes (Kanter) Freedom and Trey Burke. But effort and assiduity notwithstanding, just like all the fans who root for them to nail these suckers, they’ll bow down now and heavily rely on the Mistress of the Draft, on what the old coach acknowledged with such sagacity.

Luck.

They’ll simultaneously wish upon a star and wish they had one (or two).

Editor’s note • This story is available to Salt Lake Tribune subscribers only. Thank you for supporting local journalism.