Utah Jazz fans, let’s have a conversation.
In 2016-17, Gordon Hayward had what was by far the best season of his career. The Jazz, with Hayward as the best player on the roster, were one of the better teams in the league, made the playoffs, won a series and advanced to the Western Conference semifinals. It was an All-Star season for Hayward, who was one of the best small forwards in the NBA. He played at an All-NBA level, although he wasn’t bestowed the honor.
He averaged almost 22 points that season with 5.4 rebounds and 3.5 assists a night. He shot 47 percent from the field and 39.8 percent from 3-point range. He was in the mid-80s from the free-throw line. He was probably the best perimeter defender on the team as well. It was the season Hayward finally put it all together. It was the season Jazz fans had been waiting for since Hayward was drafted in 2009.
It also was a season that Hayward would never have again.
In my time covering the Jazz, I always thought it was the best two-way season that I’ve seen from a Jazz player. Of course, Donovan Mitchell would have better seasons on offense. And of course, Rudy Gobert would have better seasons on defense. But, I don’t think I’ve seen a season where a guy put on a masterclass on both ends of the floor as Hayward did in 2016-17. He was special. That’s why what happened in July 2017 is still heartbreaking for Jazz fans. Hayward’s defection in unrestricted free agency to the Boston Celtics will remain one of the darkest moments in Jazz franchise history.
Hayward was good enough that I hold that season in high regard. When Lauri Markkanen started hot last season and Jazz fans began this conversation, I was like, “Yo, let’s just pump the breaks.” Jazz fans will never like Hayward again. They have good reasons for that. So, I understand that Jazz fans would love to see a small forward or a combination forward come in and be better than what Hayward was in his All-Star season.
But I do think the question is fair as to whether Markkanen has equaled Hayward’s 2016 level of play or if he’s eclipsed it. Markkanen was an All-Star last season. He’s been just as good this season and under more adverse circumstances. It’s fair to consider that Markkanen has gotten to a point where we can compare the two. And it’s fair to consider whether Markkanen is capable of pushing past the level Hayward reached in 2016.
If he can, the Utah Jazz will be in very good hands. So, let’s compare, shall we?
Markkanen vs. Hayward: Offense
Hayward and Markkanen are different and go about their business in different ways. Hayward was a lot more ball-in-hand that season, initiating a ton of offense through pick and rolls and creating a lot through isolation. Hayward was a three-level monster as he reached the apex of his physical strength that season. Between that and his ball skills off the dribble, he was able to get to the basket with ease.
Hayward also developed a floater and a midrange jumper that he used when he couldn’t get into the paint. He stretched his game to 3-point range as well. What stood out was his economy. Hayward had very little wasted movement. The game had truly slowed down for him that season, and there wasn’t much defenders could do with him. At 6 foot 8, his scoring finally caught up with his playmaking, his rebounding and the other things he did that made him so enticing as a small forward prospect.
Markkanen is different than Hayward. He’s not anywhere near as ball-in-hand. But he’s an awesome offensive player who can hurt opponents in many ways. Markkanen and Hayward are both 40 percent shooters from 3-point range. But Markkanen does it on eight 3s a night, while Hayward topped out at five 3s a night. Markkanen provides more volume.
Looking deeper, Markkanen is averaging 24 points and almost nine rebounds per night. He’s shooting 50 percent from the field and almost 85 percent from the free-throw line. The gap in the statistics can be attributed in part to the jump in pace even in the last seven years, and that the Jazz in 2023 have more possessions per game than the Jazz in 2016. But Markkanen just does what he does without needing the basketball, and that’s just such a massive advantage for his level of production.
Markkanen is a movement shooter as a 7-footer. He can catch and shoot. His size allows him to play three positions, depending on the matchup. He moves well without the basketball for his size. And he’s more vertical than Hayward was in 2016, making him a better finisher at the rim.
This is what gives Markkanen the edge offensively. He and 2016 Hayward are/were both the No. 2 guys on championship-level teams. It’s easier to get a No. 1 guy to pair with Markkanen than with Hayward because by definition No. 1 options are ball-in-hand. When Hayward got healthy from his horrific foot injury and joined the Celtics, it took a long time for him and Kyrie Irving to figure it out, and by the time they did Jayson Tatum was established at the top of the rotation.
Let’s put it this way. Markkanen would have paired a lot better with Mitchell than Hayward because Markkanen would have been able to figure it out without taking touches away from Mitchell.
Edge: Markkanen
Markkanen vs. Hayward: Defense
Hayward was terrific on that side of the ball that season as he was one of Utah’s best on-ball defenders that season. He guarded multiple positions. His defense was one of the reasons the Jazz were one of the best teams in the league defensively.
It shows how conditioned Hayward was that season. He played at a high usage on offense and yet found the time to take defensive assignments that he knew would put him in the action defensively. It’s one of the reasons why I thought he deserved to make an All-NBA team that season. He was truly a two-way force and it propelled the Jazz to heights not previously attained in the Quin Snyder era.
Markkanen is passable defensively. He works at it, tries hard and is an excellent rebounder. But there’s a real gap between his defense and what Hayward’s defense was that season. Markkanen’s strength defensively is that he’s a 7-footer and can play on the perimeter. His size allows the Jazz to shrink the floor when there is similar size on the floor with him.
It’s why I would love to see him, Walker Kessler and Taylor Hendricks on the floor at the same time with some size in the backcourt. It would give the Jazz real size and mobility defensively which would be difficult to deal with from an offensive perspective.
But Hayward in 2016 is the clear winner here.
Edge: Hayward
Markkanen vs. Hayward: Intangibles
I thought Hayward was good in the locker room that season, but he wasn’t the leader of that roster. That was one of the strongest locker rooms I’ve ever covered by a long shot. That team had Joe Johnson, one of the best OG’s the league has seen. That man used to have half the roster in hot yoga with him at 6 a.m. That team had Boris Diaw, Joe Ingles, George Hill, Derrick Favors and Alec Burks. There wasn’t a lot of room for immaturity on that roster, and that meant Hayward could just go out there and hoop. That contributed to the kind of year he had.
Markkanen isn’t a natural leader either. But he has to be one of the leaders of this group. There are veterans on this team, but there are so many different personalities, so much youth and guys who have something to prove. It’s harder for Markkanen than it was for Hayward.
But here’s where Hayward isn’t going to measure up to Markkanen. All signs point to Markkanen wanting to be in Utah for a long time. And if he isn’t, let’s say he leaves in free agency. He’s never going to blow up the bridge in the manner that Hayward left the Jazz. Hayward’s exit for Boston was an all-timer that can’t be easily duplicated. Markkanen’s not going to do that. When Mitchell left, (the Jazz wanted to keep him until they realized they had to trade him), he was professional enough to let the process play itself out, which gave the Jazz the chance to get fair value for him.
Markkanen recently told The Athletic that he strongly believes in what the Jazz are building. Behind the scenes, the organization is confident Markkanen will be with the franchise for a long time.
And if Markkanen remains with the Jazz through his prime seasons, he may find himself creeping up the franchise’s all-time list.
He’s off to a great start.
