Walker Kessler’s breakout potential, pressure on Rudy Gobert and the rise of Chet Holmgren

There’s no shortage of interesting storylines within the Northwest Division.

Can the Denver Nuggets defend their NBA title? Will the Minnesota Timberwolves regain the momentum they lost last season? The Oklahoma City Thunder, Portland Trail Blazers and Utah Jazz are conducting three of the league’s most interesting roster resets, so how will their intriguing construction strategies play out in the season ahead? We know Nikola Jokić is a franchise cornerstone, but how far will Anthony Edwards, Scoot Henderson, Chet Holmgren and Walker Kessler, among others, rise?

To break down the Northwest’s offseason and look ahead to the 2023-24 regular season, The Athletic has assembled three of its writers: Tony Jones, Jason Quick and Josh Robbins.

What was the best offseason move — a trade, a free-agent signing, firing or hiring — within the division?

Tony Jones: I’m going to use the word “matriculation” if we are talking about the biggest impact. So, not a signing, hiring or firing, if you will, but Chet Holmgren in Oklahoma City is going to be the biggest offseason addition in the Northwest Division. He’s exactly what the Thunder need on both ends of the floor. He’s an elite rim protector, and when you look at what he does offensively, it’s easy to see why so many people are high on OKC as a unit. He’s my pick for Rookie of the Year, and as a player, he’s the closest reminder for me to what Kevin Garnett was at the same age.

Jason Quick: Portland getting Deandre Ayton in a trade with Phoenix. Not only is Ayton an upgrade at center over Jusuf Nurkić, but also he allows Portland to fully embrace the up-tempo pace it intends to push with Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe and Anfernee Simons. Portland is going to be fast, and Ayton is one of the best big men in getting up and down the court. I almost picked Utah getting John Collins as the best move, but I think Ayton makes a bigger — and more immediate — impact.

Josh Robbins: I side with Tony on this one: Holmgren has the potential to change Oklahoma City’s world, and that’s saying something considering how the team already has All-Star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, several promising youngsters and an almost ridiculous amount of draft capital.

But since I cannot improve on what Tony said, I’ll go with the Minnesota Timberwolves and Anthony Edwards agreeing to a five-year max contract extension that ultimately could be worth up to $260 million. That move may have been expected, but just because it was expected doesn’t take away its importance. The hardest thing to do in the NBA, particularly if you’re not a so-called “glamor” team, is to find a legit superstar, and Edwards is on that path, as his star turn for Team USA this summer demonstrated.

Which Northwest Division offseason move has the strongest potential to backfire?

Jones: In my opinion, the Portland Trail Blazers have to trade Malcolm Brogdon. The issue for me is that he’s good enough a player to demand 30 minutes a night, but if I were Portland I would almost never put him in a game because I want Scoot Henderson to develop that badly, and when Scoot isn’t in the game, I want to stagger Anfernee Simons at the point guard spot.

So, that almost squeezes Brogdon out of a role, because when Simons is at the point, I want to stagger Shaedon Sharpe into shooting guard minutes. Veterans who are good enough to demand 30 minutes a night, and yet are garnering half that, typically become locker-room issues. And I need as clean a locker room as possible if I’m the Portland Trail Blazers.

Quick: Denver losing Bruce Brown in free agency. The Nuggets had their hands tied financially, but losing Brown to Indiana will be felt beyond the 11.5 points, 4.1 rebounds and 3.4 assists he averaged last season. Brown’s defense and versatility was a great luxury for coach Michael Malone, and whether the Nuggets have a replacement, let alone an adequate bench, will be one of the huge questions hovering over Denver as the season begins.

Robbins: I’m on board with Jason here. I agree that Denver losing Brown, a quintessential glue guy who enhances his teammates’ games through the nature of how he plays, will be a serious loss. And I’ll take it a step further: The additional departure of Jeff Green hurts, too. With Brown and Green leaving, Denver is minus the guys who compiled the third- and eighth-most total regular-season minutes last season. Don’t misunderstand me: The Nuggets are still in good shape, but even the reigning league champs will miss the depth Green provided.

By the way, Tony and I go way back, all the way back to our days two decades ago as very young reporters in Central Florida, but I gotta say I disagree with him about Brogdon in Portland. If I were a Blazers executive, I would want at least several steady veterans who can still contribute on my exceedingly young roster. Brogdon is an ideal veteran to help mentor Henderson, Sharpe and Simons.

Which player in the division is most likely to have a breakout season?

Jones: We can pretty much just look up and down Oklahoma City’s roster for the answer here. But, I’m going to go with Utah Jazz center Walker Kessler. I think he’s already one of the best rim protectors in basketball, and he’s even a much better all-around defender than that. Kessler averaging a double-double would shock nobody. He’s one of the bright up-and-coming centers in the league.

Quick: Holmgren in Oklahoma City. After missing all of last season with a right foot injury, the No. 2 pick in the 2022 draft is oozing with potential. Now healed, the 7-foot-1 Holmgren, in five summer-league games, showed what a dynamic and versatile player he can be, posting averages of 14 points, 8.4 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 2.0 steals and 2.8 blocks. He shot 50 percent from the field and 42 percent from 3-point range.

Robbins: I look forward to seeing how Holmgren performs, and whether he’ll remain healthy; I mean, he can be elite, but I’m eager to see how he withstands an 82-game season. But my runner-up choice as the Northwest’s breakout player will be Denver’s Christian Braun, who’s in his second NBA season. I don’t think it’s realistic so early in his career to expect him to do all of the things that Brown did, let alone do them as well as Brown did. But a few people will have to take on larger roles in Denver, and I expect Braun’s minutes and production to increase.

My No. 3 choice here is Minnesota’s Jaden McDaniels, who has the potential to become one of the league’s top defenders (and already is on the verge of an All-Defense nod). If McDaniels matches or exceeds what he shot from beyond the arc last season — 39.8 percent on 3.4 attempts per game — he’ll cement his place as one of the game’s rising young players.

Heading into the season, which player, coach or executive in the division has the most to prove?

Jones: Rudy Gobert, by a mile. Simply put, he had his worst year since the beginning seasons of his career. I did think he had a good playoff series against the Denver Nuggets. His numbers were down almost across the board. He didn’t look good in the World Cup this summer, and right now I think he has to prove that he’s not on the verge of falling off a cliff, as athletic centers in his age range sometimes do.

Minnesota has a lot of potential this season. To reach that ceiling, the Wolves need the prime Gobert they thought they were trading for. If he is indeed on a downward career spiral, this trade borders on disaster for him, because the Wolves are devoid of assets to improve, other than becoming a trade team.

Quick: Gobert in Minnesota. The franchise mortgaged its future to acquire Gobert, and his most memorable moment was getting sent home at halftime in the regular season finale after scuffling with teammate Kyle Anderson. It summed up Gobert’s frustrating and awkward first season in Minnesota. Gobert has played for two teams (Utah and Minnesota) and in both places, he has encountered friction with teammates. So the question this season becomes not only if Gobert can return to being one of the game’s dominant defensive factors, or whether he can complement Anthony Edwards’ rise, but also whether he is a positive piece to a team.

Robbins: Yeah, it’s Gobert, for all the reasons Tony and Jason said.

I’m going to go with Collins here. It’s fair to say his career has lost some momentum after he was the constant target of trade speculation in recent years and posted career lows last season in rebounding (6.5 per game), field-goal percentage (50.8) and 3-point percentage (29.2). But he’s just turned 26 and he should have many, many years of strong production remaining.

Which teams will finish first, second, third, fourth and fifth in the regular-season Northwest Division standings?

Jones: Denver, Minnesota, Oklahoma City, Utah, Portland.

Quick: Denver, Oklahoma City, Minnesota, Utah, Portland.

Robbins: Denver, Minnesota, Oklahoma City, Utah and Portland. I’m excited to see who’ll finish as the regular-season runner-up — and whether the Thunder make a significant leap. It’s not out of the question that Utah could approach the .500 mark if Kessler builds on his outstanding rookie season, Collins returns to form and Lauri Markkanen duplicates his performance from last season.

— This article originally appeared in The Athletic.