It’s finally here.
After weeks of rumors and subterfuge and misdirection, the NBA draft takes place Thursday night at 6 p.m. MT, broadcast on ABC and ESPN. At long last, the suspense of which players go where — following the inevitable selection of French phenom Victor Wembanyama at No. 1 — will be revealed.
The Utah Jazz, presently set to pick at Nos. 9, 16, and 28, will take major steps in shaping their future. Will they trade up higher in the top 10? Perhaps package their two latter picks to get another lottery selection. They’ve got a ton of possibilities.
We’ve analyzed the prospects at the top, middle, and end of the first round. We’ve taken a couple stabs at predicting who they might take — the first one a month ago, the second two weeks ago.
Here’s one last shot at seeing how things might go.
1. San Antonio Spurs: Victor Wembanyama, Metropolitans 92 (France)
Look, Wemby is not a perfect prospect — his much-ballyhooed outside shooting is actually quite inefficient (27% during the French League season), and he had more turnovers than assists. Doesn’t matter — if there’s a guy with the potential to be Kevin Durant offense meets Rudy Gobert defense, you take him. Period.
2. Charlotte Hornets: Scoot Henderson, G League Ignite
The star guard or the two-way wing? Henderson or Brandon Miller? There’s no consensus with this pick, though most people seem to favor the latter. I get it — these Hornets lack wings. I just feel that Henderson is definitively the second-best prospect in this draft, and can be a good complement to LaMelo Ball.
3. Portland Trail Blazers: Brandon Miller, Alabama
The Blazers are reportedly trying to trade out of this spot to give Damian Lillard some vet help, but if they don’t Miller would be an excellent addition to their roster. He’s a multipositional defender, he’s an excellent playmaker — even if he’s not consistently making baskets, he will find ways to contribute.
4. Houston Rockets: Amen Thompson, City Reapers (Overtime Elite)
Thompson or Whitmore, Thompson or Whitmore. There’s so much alleged momentum for Whitmore to be the pick, and I get it. But if a James Harden reunion isn’t a sure thing, you need to find another way to upgrade from Kevin Porter Jr. as your lead ball-handler and play-maker. Thompson is unquestionably that.
5. Detroit Pistons: Cam Whitmore, Villanova
There’s growing speculation that Detroit really likes Jarace Walker. There is a lot to like. But given that they already have and also like Jalen Duren and Isaiah Stewart, and also have James Wiseman and Marvin Bagley, it makes sense to me take Whitmore as a young, high-upside wing. If he can improve his playmaking …
6. Orlando Magic: Anthony Black, Arkansas
The Magic also reportedly like Walker. And Ausar Thompson. And they really need 3-point shooting. From those perspectives, Black might not make much sense. But Orlando really loves tall, long-armed athletes, and Black would be a better PG than Markelle Fultz and Cole Anthony, and would boost a terrible defense.
7. Indiana Pacers: Taylor Hendricks, Central Florida
Indy reportedly wants to deal this pick for a high-end wing. Failing that, they need some forwards on the roster. Walker, once again, is a popular pick. However, Hendricks just feels like he has more upside: four-position defensive versatility, 39% from 3. He just needs to get better at putting the ball on the floor.
8. Washington Wizards: Ausar Thompson, City Reapers (Overtime Elite)
The Wiz just kicked off their rebuild with the Bradley Beal trade, so they literally can go in any direction. The other Thompson twin probably has the most star potential of anyone remaining. He’s a better shooter and better defender than his brother, though the former still isn’t great right now.
9. Utah Jazz: Jarace Walker, Houston
Don’t be shocked if the Jazz move up a few spots to get their guy. But if the board falls this way, they will happily make Wallace part of their frontcourt of the future. He’s intelligent on both sides of the ball, a strong defender, an emerging shooter (albeit on low volume), and an excellent passer for a power forward.
10. Dallas Mavericks: Kobe Bufkin, Michigan
The Mavs, like the Blazers, Pistons, Magic, and Pacers, reportedly have interest in trading their pick. Whether it’s Dallas or someone else picking here, the rapidly-rising Bufkin could make sense. His play-making, shooting, and scoring all got a boost late in the season, and he’s reportedly been killing it in workouts.
11. Orlando Magic: Dereck Lively II, Duke
Everyone seems to have Gradey Dick going to Orlando, and as a shooting-deficient squad, it’d make sense. But Lively perhaps has a bit more overall upside, and as a 7-1, athletic, shot-blocker extraordinaire, he could — when paired with Black — also give the Magic something they desperately need: an upgraded defense.
12. Oklahoma City Thunder: Gradey Dick, Kansas
While some have the Jayhawk sliding a bit, considering that he doesn’t offer a ton more than shooting, it’s hard to see OKC passing on him if he’s available. Like the Magic, they’re also pretty outside shooting-deficient, and the freshman wing is unquestionably the best shooter in this draft class.
13. Toronto Raptors: Cason Wallace, Kentucky
Many have Toronto going for a taller backcourt pick, given the franchise’s recent obsession with long-armed, oversized athletes. But if they’re worried about losing Fred VanVleet, Wallace has the most playmaking skill of anyone left, and you don’t need to worry about him being 6-2, as he’s a perimeter defense ace.
14. New Orleans Pelicans: Bilal Coulibaly, Metropolitans 92 (France)
Wemby’s teammate has a reported lottery promise (Could it be the Jazz? Danny Ainge went to see him play in Monaco.), and the Pels would make sense. They’ve got a ton of offense on their roster, but other than Herb Jones, not enough defenders. Coulibaly’s 7-3 wingspan can make him playable even as his shot progresses.
15. Atlanta Hawks: Jalen Hood-Schifino, Indiana
Quin Snyder’s new team could go in so many directions here, as he shapes the roster more to his liking. Atlanta could use more backcourt depth. A combo guard most of the year, the 6-5 JHS showed point guard promise as the season went on. He’s a good defender, great midrange scorer, and getting better from 3.
16. Utah Jazz: Keyonte George, Baylor
There’s a ton of guard/wing depth in this range, so Utah could bolster its backcourt here. They’ve been tied to George for weeks. He’s been turnover-prone as a play-maker, and inefficient as a shooter. Most of the other guys they could go for here, though, don’t have his shot-making creativity and ball-in-hand juice.
17. Los Angeles Lakers: Jett Howard, Michigan
During the Lakers’ surprising run to the Western Conference finals, their inconsistent beyond-the-arc shooting proved an impediment time and again. Actually, it’s been a weakness for several years. At his best, Howard is a high-IQ floor spacer with excellent size for a wing. Can he provide anything on the other end?
18. Miami Heat: Nick Smith Jr., Arkansas
Many scouts believe you have to throw out the admittedly-bad tape from his one year with the Razorbacks, owing to a knee injury he perhaps came back too early from. If he can clean up his shot selection and get more efficient, he provides tantalizing upside as a unique shot-creator, which the Heat could use.
19. Golden State Warriors: Kris Murray, Iowa
There’s a school of thought that, with GSW facing huge salary penalties under the new CBA, they’ll need young, cheap talent ready to contribute right away. Murray is that. He’s not quite the athlete twin brother Keegan is for the Kings, but he’s a smart combo forward who can knocks down 3s and compete defensively.
20. Houston Rockets: Jordan Hawkins, Connecticut
I would love to give them someone who can provide some semblance of defensive acumen, but it appears that most of their focus right now is on diversifying the offense. They could definitely stand to hit more 3s. Hawkins might be the second-best outside shooter in this draft, a threat both spotting up and pulling up.
21. Brooklyn Nets: Leonard Miller, G League Ignite
Miller is a tantalizing prospect, in that he’s 6-10 with some legit guard skills, in the form of ball-handling and play-making. He’s idiosyncratic with his offensive movements, but he’s a great rebounder, and he’s excellent attacking the rim in transition. His shot mechanics, however, figure to be a multi-year work in progress.
22. Brooklyn Nets: Dariq Whitehead, Duke
If Brooklyn can’t package its picks to move up, Whitehead would be another intriguing high-upside play. A fractured foot wrecked much of his freshman season, and a recent second surgery set him back again. But when he’s right physically, he’s a sniper offensively, with enough athleticism to be a switchable defender.
23. Portland Trail Blazers: Noah Clowney, Alabama
If the Blazers are, as rumored, trying to acquire high-level vets to give Dame one more title run in Portland, you’d figure they’d go for an experienced college vet. Except their recent draft history is very tilted toward young, upside guys. Clowney is 18 years old, with an impressive frame, and a defensive motor.
24. Sacramento Kings: Olivier-Maxence Prosper, Marquette
After their first playoff appearance in forever, the Kings came away realizing they could use some extra 3-and-D wings. O-Max has been lighting up the post-combine workout scene with his impressive athleticism and defensive doggedness. If he is consistent with the outside shooting, he’ll be a great addition.
25. Boston Celtics: Ben Sheppard, Belmont
Boston might be looking for an experienced, well-rounded guy, and Sheppard — another late riser — is that. He was an all-conference defender who fights over screens. Offensively, he’s been compared to Rip Hamilton for his near-constant movement. He also shot 3s really well — but only as a senior, which is concerning.
26. Indiana Pacers: G.G. Jackson, South Carolina
With several late picks, Indy’s in a position to gamble on upside, and the youngest player in this draft class has that. He needs a ton of work in some areas — notably bad shot selection and too-frequent turnovers — but he was a good scorer with nice handles. And he can be good defensively when he feels like it.
27. Charlotte Hornets: Brandin Podziemski, Santa Clara
Despite being an absolute zero defensively (if not an outright negative), Podziemski has perhaps been gaining traction as a first-round prospect thanks to his offensive skill set. He’s a knockdown shooter off the catch, a crafty scorer in the midrange, and a surprisingly good playmaker.
28. Utah Jazz: Brice Sensabaugh, Ohio State
Danny Ainge said just after the season ended that the collegiate guys who have scoring talent definitely stand out. Sensabaugh absolutely stands out as a three-level scorer, thanks to his array of midrange moves, plus hitting at a 40.5% clip from deep. He’s a subpar athlete, a bad passer, and an indifferent defender.
29. Denver Nuggets: Rayan Rupert, New Zealand Breakers
The Frenchman has been all over the place, draft stock-wise, on account of being an extremely streaky shooter. It’s hard to see him dropping out of Round 1, though, as he’s 6-6 with a 7-2 wingspan, and has the skills and motor to be a lockdown defender from Day 1. He can perhaps be some Bruce Brown insurance.
30. Los Angeles Clippers: Jaime Jaquez Jr., UCLA
If he were a little bit better of an athlete, and more consistent as a shooter, he’d go much higher, because he does pretty much everything else. He was a highly productive college vet as a four-year glue guy for the Bruins. He’s a defensive tone-setter and secondary playmaker. If the shooting comes around, he’s a steal.
New to mock draft 3.0: Ben Sheppard, Belmont.
Out from mock draft 2.0: Colby Jones, Xavier; Bobi Klintman, Wake Forest.
Back from mock draft 1.0: Jaime Jaquez Jr., UCLA.
Others who just missed: James Nnaji, Barcelona; Maxwell Lewis, Pepperdine; Andre Jackson Jr., Connecticut; Trayce Jackson-Davis, Indiana; Sidy Cissoko, G League Ignite.
Biggest risers from 2.0: Kobe Bufkin +9; Jett Howard +9; Cason Wallace +7.
Steepest declines from 2.0: Brandin Podziemski -5; Rayan Rupert -5; Olivier-Maxence Prosper -4.
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