As opposed to 2020-21, when the regular season went just about as well as possible, this year’s slate has been more of a struggle for the Utah Jazz. They find themselves in the No. 4 position in the West, dealing with the absence of one longtime key piece (Joe Ingles) and a difficult COVID and injury-laden 4-12 January.
But that means there’s more to accomplish and more to watch for in this season’s final 20 games. To break it down, we enlisted the Tribune’s Jazz beat writers of Andy Larsen and Eric Walden, along with the contributions of Salt City Hoops’ Tyler Crandall, Clark Schmutz, David J. Smith, and Zarin Ficklin, to answer five critical questions about the rest of the regular season for the Jazz.
What is the biggest thing you want to see from the Jazz over the rest of the regular season?
Eric Walden, Salt Lake Tribune: The additional commitment to defense that they demonstrated in the first two post-All-Star break games — against Dallas and Phoenix — would be ideal. Ideally, it would arrive primarily in the form of more effort and intelligence at the point of attack on the perimeter. Otherwise, this is a team that’s in for the same playoff fate it’s had the past several seasons.
Andy Larsen, Salt Lake Tribune: Perimeter defense. That has been the thing that has kept them from advancing further in the past two postseasons, and while there certainly were extenuating circumstances in the Clippers series, it’s simply a weak spot for this team that will require a higher level of play.
Tyler Crandall, Salt City Hoops: Consistency. Consistency in their effort level on defense and consistency in how they involve each other on offense. I would also like to see them avoid being passive on both ends of the floor. They should be aggressive at the point of attack, closing out to shooters, and dealing with screens. They should also be aggressive on offense. Shots don’t have to come early in the clock, but they do need to take the best shot available when it’s available.
Clark Schmutz, Salt City Hoops: I would like them to strategically rest and aim for a more favorable playoff matchup. Seeking out a specific opponent hasn’t been the MO of the Jazz lately, but I wish they would do so this season.
Zarin Ficklin, Salt City Hoops: Process over wins. The Jazz need to be healthy above all else. They need to continue showing defensive effort in transition and the point of attack. They need consistency from their mercurial bench players. Will Rudy Gay look a little sprier? Will Hassan Whiteside look more engaged? Can Danuel House continue his pitch-perfect start? Can Jordan Clarkson get his shot right and contribute in other facets? We’ll see in the remaining games.
David J. Smith, Salt City Hoops: Consistency in effort, focus and urgency. It is more understandable when consistent execution differs some from game-to-game, often in response to opponents’ schemes and personnel. It is much less so when it comes to these three attributes. It would be a very positive development for the Jazz to continue to cultivate the consistency they have shown over the past nine outings.
How important is seeding to the Jazz? Should they, for example, play Mike Conley more minutes and in back-to-backs?
Walden: The way this team has treated the regular season to this point could be construed as an answer. An almost laissez-faire mentality throughout portions of the schedule would seem to indicate that seeding matters far less than being healthy for the postseason. So I can’t see them pushing Conley. That said, yielding home-court advantage in the first round would seem to go a step too far.
Larsen: I think it’s pretty important — not least of which for narrative reasons. If the Jazz face the juggernaut Phoenix Suns in the second round and lose, it’s hard to argue they’ve made significant progress this season. If they make it to the Western Conference finals and do the same, they can sell to Donovan Mitchell, Rudy Gobert, and any free agents looking for the mid-level exception that they’ve made progress.
Crandall: The Suns are the 1 seed, so it’s really a question of do the Jazz need to fight through to a 2 or a 3 seed to have a chance at the championship. It doesn’t matter as much as you’d think. The path is equally difficult for Phoenix as it is for Utah, Golden State, or Memphis. What really matters are the matchups.
Schmutz: The playoffs are almost completely about favorable matchups, so the Jazz should prioritize their seeding over almost anything else. Getting the third seed and avoiding the Suns second round is ideal. But getting the sixth seed and drawing Memphis first round is probably the second best option if the conference finals are the goal.
Ficklin: Vegas odds point toward a first-round collision with either the Mavericks or Nuggets. Let’s say that scenario holds. Health is a bigger priority than engineering a preferred opponent and having home-court advantage. Even if there’s an opportunity to chase the third seed, it could still mean facing the same first round opponent and then the Warriors instead of the Suns in the following round. Is that really worth overexerting for?
Smith: Compared to Phoenix and Golden State, Utah’s postseason success is more dependent on the matchups, which is not great for a conference contender. Subsequently, seeding is important. Even so, the past few postseasons have illustrated how vital health is to this Jazz squad. The main focus should be on making it into mid-April at full strength, particularly as it relates to Conley and the other frontliners.
How do you think Quin Snyder will redistribute or should redistribute the minutes that would have gone to Joe Ingles in the playoffs?
Walden: Giving the majority of them — if not outright all of them — to Danuel House is probably the right answer. Quin Snyder clearly doesn’t trust Nickeil Alexander-Walker yet, and I’m not sure I believe that Trent Forrest is postseason-playable, given how opponents will scheme against his unwillingness to take/inability to make 3-pointers. Donovan Mitchell, Mike Conley, and Jordan Clarkson will have more ballhandling responsibilities; House can do all the other Ingles minutes stuff.
Larsen: You’ll see a lot of Danuel House, I think. To me, it will be extremely interesting to what degree Trent Forrest can play in the playoffs, especially in the latter stages of series. He’s currently often the first player off the Jazz’s bench, but when shooting is at a premium, Forrest can’t play.
Crandall: Right now, those minutes are going to Trent Forrest and Danuel House. I think we’ll see a little less of Forrest (but still some), and more House. It may also mean a few extra possessions of Rudy Gay, depending on the game.
Schmutz: Coach Snyder needs to replace about 28 minutes per game in the playoffs. I think he should plan to play House 20-25 minutes a game with Rudy Gay and maybe even Eric Paschall a few extra minutes, too. Forrest should be the next option if House or Clarkson are struggling.
Ficklin: The first question is whether Quin Snyder will use eight or nine players in his playoff rotation. He’s traditionally liked eight, but how much of that was due to injuries and shaky depth? I see backcourt minutes going to Jordan Clarkson and Danuel House, with frontcourt minutes going to Rudy Gay and Hassan Whiteside. How those minutes are distributed depends on matchups and performance.
Smith: Snyder has handled Ingles’ absence — along with Rudy Gay’s — by inserting Danuel House and Trent Forrest into the regular-season rotation (Eric Paschall to a lesser degree). The playoffs are different, of course, but it makes sense for House to continue in his role. His defensive prowess and 3-point shooting have been very welcome. Forrest has been good, but his shooting is a deterrent. Mitchell and Conley will also understandably play more in the postseason.
Which first-round opponent scares you more: Dallas or Denver? Why?
Walden: Denver, with the asterisk of Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. playing. In the event that those guys at all resemble their usual selves, the Nuggets present the Jazz with serious matchup problems. No one needs a reminder of what Murray did two years ago. The Mavs’ defensive improvement of late is impressive, but offensively, Luka Doncic’s supporting cast is simply not consistent enough.
Larsen: Denver, by a pretty significant margin. With word out of Denver that the Nuggets are confident in the return of Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr., the healthy Nuggets have the reigning league MVP, a difficult to stop scoring guard that has torched the Jazz, and a tough-shot-maker that the Jazz don’t have the length to bother. Pretty rough.
Crandall: We’ve already seen how a worse version of this Jazz team fares against Denver in the playoffs. They could have and should have won the series in six games, but ultimately collapsed. Jamal Murray will not be his old self come first-round and MPJ still can’t defend. Jazz beat a healthy Nuggets team in five this season. I’m much more nervous about the five-out Mavs and Luka.
Schmutz: Dallas scares me more, but only because I don’t expect Michael Porter Jr. or Jamal Murray to be right physically in time for the playoffs. Denver might be favorites next season, but they don’t play defense and Murray and Porter will be liabilities in April.
Ficklin: A healthy Nuggets team certainly feels more intimidating, but maybe not as much as it appears:
We don’t know what Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. will look like upon return from injury.
Without Gary Harris, who can slow down Donovan Mitchell?
The Jazz should have a healthy Bojan Bogdanovic and a deeper bench. Remember how the Jazz were killed in Tony Bradley minutes?
Defeating the Nuggets would exorcize demons and bring confidence into the next round.
Smith: Both the Nuggets and the Mavs would arguably boast the best player in the series, which makes both very dangerous. The one with the reigning MVP gets the edge here. Nikola Jokic is simply phenomenal, and he tends to amazingly boost his game in the postseason. With news that Michael Porter Jr. and Jamal Murray could be back before season’s end, the Nuggets’ depth and size make them more imposing to Utah.
Over the last 20 games, what would constitute a good record for the Jazz given their remaining schedule?
Walden: Honestly, with what they’ve got remaining, 12-8 probably would be a little disappointing but perhaps not unrealistic. Mavs twice, Clippers twice, Suns, Warriors, Grizz, Bucks, Bulls, Celtics, Nets … that’s gonna be an incredibly difficult stretch run.
Larsen: 14-6 would be good to me, especially given the two lengthy road trips in March. Those games at the end of those trips can be taxing, especially against quality opposition.
Crandall: No more than five losses; 15-5. Take your pick: @Boston, @Dallas, Phoenix, Milwaukee, Golden State, Memphis. We could drop all of those, but probably win a few.
Schmutz: I honestly don’t care about their record as long as they are healthy, well rested and avoid the play-in games.
Ficklin: 538 projects the Jazz to finish 52–30. The Jazz have three more back-to-backs, and may elect to rest starters in games they’d otherwise be favored in. I’d be happy with a 50-win season if health is prioritized. Whatever happens in the playoffs will far overshadow any regular-season record anyway.
Smith: This end stretch will be difficult for the Jazz. 13-7 over the last 20 would be show a lot, placing them in the 52 to 53-win realm. Unfortunately for them, however, that will probably keep them fourth in the Western Conference.
