Three thoughts on the Utah Jazz’s 132-127 overtime win against the Houston Rockets from Salt Lake Tribune Jazz beat writer Andy Larsen.
1. Jazz can’t get a stop when it matters
Let’s talk about the Rockets.
The Rockets have the worst record in the NBA. They’ve lost 10 games in a row. They’re missing their most consistent defender and two of their most dangerous offensive players in Eric Gordon and Dennis Schroder.
So I’m fine with basically waltzing into Houston, going at 80%, and getting a win. And honestly, the Jazz were very on pace to do that: a 10-point lead going into the 3rd quarter, despite their opponents shooting hot from the 3-point line.
But they continued to play around. When it came down to the fourth quarter, and had the opportunity stops that they needed, they weren’t able to get them. At times, it was the same formula that the Clippers used against the Rockets: put Rudy Gobert’s man in the corner, and attack everyone else.
I don’t love this. Martin’s a 35% career 3-point shooter, he’s not bad from deep.
So what can the Jazz do better here? Well, Quin Snyder addressed it after the game:
• The perimeter defender (in this case, Donovan Mitchell) can contain his man a little better. He does stay in front, but he’s definitely near the rim, so you understand why Rudy Gobert came over to help.
• But if Rudy Gobert is going to come over to help, he needs to be more impactful in the play. If he comes from the right angle, or pushes closer to the ballhandler a little better, it’s a more difficult pass to the corner.
• If he does help, then Jordan Clarkson, or the nearby defender, could stand to help more. Or Gobert, if he can go more aggressive on the closeout, then Clarkson or someone else can help underneath.
The problem is that the Jazz are doing it all at partial effort, and that includes Gobert — he deserves some blame here too.
Here’s the second-most important defensive play of the game:
Royce O’Neale needs to be more impactful here. He’s playing defense like he has five fouls... back, back, backing up until Porter Jr. gets the easy layup. Do something! On a game-tying possession, the Jazz let them score so easily they guaranteed that the Rockets would get the ball back. That turned out to be a big deal.
2. Fouling up three, and counting on Danuel House late
With the Jazz having a 3-point lead and eight seconds left, Snyder told the Jazz to foul to force the Rockets to go to the free-throw line. After all, with no timeouts, they’d find it extremely difficult to score three points in those eight seconds without making a 3-point shot.
And it turns out that’s the right decision, statistically. This paper analyzed the last seconds of NBA games between 2011 and 2015 to create a win-expectancy model to help coaches with that decision, and found that fouling up three with anything less than nine seconds on the clock was the right move. According to my mathematical training (pushes glasses bridge up nose), 8.3 is less than nine.
But, uh, the Jazz didn’t foul. Snyder, Conley, Mitchell, and Gobert all confirmed postgame, the plan was to foul. They just didn’t.
Gobert, after the game, said he made contact with Porter’s arm. But it’s certainly pretty soft, if the contact did happen. Meanwhile, Danuel House is guarding the ball the whole possession... and just leaves his arms way, way up, making as clear as possible that he’s not fouling.
So, here’s the thing: I’m rooting for House, as the Jazz’s best perimeter defender, to be able to finish games. The Jazz need his defensive ability pretty darn clearly — see how O’Neale gave up the bad bucket above.
But if he’s not going to know what kind of defense the Jazz are playing? If he can’t reliably do as simple a thing as foul? Then the Jazz are going to have all sorts of confusion-based defensive breakdowns. And frankly, then they’re doubly in trouble.
So here’s a really big question: can House be trusted? He’ll either earn that trust over the next 20 games, or he won’t. But after tonight, he may have to earn it back.
3. Donovan Mitchell since coming back
Donovan Mitchell’s been so good since coming back from his concussion. Here’s his statline:
Shooting well from three, yes, but not crazily so. He’s scoring efficiently from inside and outside the arc. He’s averaging six assists per game, and nearly two steals. And it’s not an accident that the Jazz have won all but one of those games — and of all people, I’m not putting the Lakers loss on Mitchell, who was great in that game until the Lakers started to double-team him.
This is tough, but it’s wildly impressive: left-handed, while being fouled, while falling to the floor, and he makes it anyway. It was the key basket in overtime that ended the Rockets’ good stretch.
As much as Donovan’s scoring can make fans salivate, I’m still more amazed by his passes. Look at this.
Okay, I guess it’s a little off target, but my goodness, what a find. Magic.
I was also intrigued to see how much Mitchell guarded Porter Jr. down the stretch, when that might usually be O’Neale’s or Conley’s man — though they also had their own matchups to worry about. It meant Mitchell was more engaged on-ball than he usually is, and while there were mixed results, I’m glad he had the opportunity to do it.
Mitchell’s essentially the last thing I’m worried about in the playoffs. We’ve just seen him too consistently be the ringleader of really terrific offenses. But it’s still pretty remarkable to watch at times, including tonight.
