We are just over a month away from Selection Sunday on March 16. And the state of Utah could see a handful of teams go dancing.

Last year, BYU and Utah State punched their ticket to the men’s tournament. BYU was bounced by Duquesne. But the Aggies rode a bit of Danny Sprinkle magic to a first-round upset over TCU — before getting upended by No. 1 seed Purdue.

Both programs changed coaches soon after their tournament exit. But even with the turnover, they are in a prime position to again play in March.

Here’s a look at what each contender needs to do to have a stress-free watch party — or have one at all.

Utah State

How Utah State keeps churning out contenders is anybody’s best guess.

This is the third straight season where Utah State has a different head coach. And it’s the third straight year where the Aggies should be comfortably in the field.

This level of winning in Logan is nearly unheard of. In Sprinkle’s lone season, he went 19-2 out of the gate and ended up with 28 wins. It was the best start in program history. But somehow, this group has matched it.

Jerrod Calhoun also had his group at a 19-2 start before suffering a home loss to New Mexico. If the season ended today, they’d be the automatic qualifier out of the Mountain West and likely the 9-seed (same as last year).

Now, if USU doesn’t end up winning the regular-season title (like it did in 2024) or the conference championship, things could get a little bit more uncomfortable in terms of seeding.

At the moment, the Mountain West is projected to be a three-bid league. Both of the league’s other contenders, New Mexico and San Diego State, are on the bubble right now. Statistically this is the worst SDSU team since 2019.

The Mountain West had a renaissance last year, getting six teams in. That won’t happen again, so USU still needs to keep winning to be comfortable.

The good news, the schedule is relatively easy the rest of the way. USU only has two Quad 1 games left in the regular season, road dates with New Mexico and Boise. It has five Quad 3 games or lower. Taking care of the bottom feeders, plus finding one or two more wins, should put the Aggies in the dance.

BYU

After the loss to Utah, things looked dicey for new head coach Kevin Young. The Cougars didn’t have a Quad 1 win and seemed to be destined for a letdown campaign.

But since then, BYU has turned it around. It has won four straight games in the Big 12 for the first time in program history. Two of those were Quad 1 wins against Baylor and UCF.

Beating the Knights was critical for tournament positioning. UCF was a fellow bubble team — likely in the field — going into the weekend. But after BYU knocked it off in Orlando, it is BYU with the inside track and UCF on the outside looking in.

This recent surge has been largely due to Richie Saunders playing like an All-Big 12 player. And projected lottery pick Egor Demin has been much better of late — handling the physicality of the league.

BYU’s schedule is still a gauntlet to close out the season, but it gives the Cougars plenty of chances to get signature wins for the committee.

Arizona is coming to Provo, so is Kansas. It has seven Quad 1 games remaining. If BYU can steal a few of those, it should be in the field comfortably.

Utah

The Utes were predicted to be the worst team in the Big 12 this year. And while they have risen above that bar, they are still struggling.

Since beating BYU, they have dropped three games and barely squeaked past a dismal Cincinnati team. The most recent blow was falling to Oklahoma State, a team with only two conference wins coming into the night.

All the metrics are down on the Utes right now. They are 89th in KenPom and 80th in the NET. They are 0-7 in Quad 1 games. The OSU blunder gives them a Quad 3 loss, too, a backbreaker for a tournament resume.

At the moment, any path to the tournament feels far-fetched in Salt Lake City. With six Quad 1 games left, it could get worse before it gets better for Craig Smith’s squad.

Utah Valley

Is this the year Utah Valley finally breaks through?

It comes down to the Wolverines winning the conference tournament in March. But it isn’t out of the question.

UVU is 15-7 and has lost just once since Dec. 15. It had the nation’s fourth-longest winning streak going into last week.

This isn’t the same team that Mark Pope had his final year in Orem, or even the Wolverines coached by Mark Madsen, but Todd Phillips has a group that could get hot at the right time.