The country’s top-rated basketball recruit is headed to BYU and will be paid handsomely for it.
AJ Dybantsa will reportedly make about $6 million next season to play college basketball in Provo. By some distance, that figure will make him the highest-paid player to ever play college basketball, (though, admittedly, players haven’t been eligible to be paid for very long).
It’s a number that’s drawing significant attention — and significant criticism.
Kansas coach Bill Self, for example, said that he was opting out of the Dybantsa pursuit in favor of spreading that money around to other recruits. At Deadspin, Adam Zielonka opined that Dybantsa’s payment showed that “NIL was out of control in college sports.” And I’m going to bet that you’ve heard the following phrase at the water cooler, church, or anywhere out in public: “That’s too much money for a 17-year-old kid.”
Perhaps you’ve even been the one to say it.
But I’m here to opine that, in fact, that’s a reasonable amount for this particular 17-year-old kid. Indeed, if you look at the totality of the situation, AJ Dybantsa might even be underpaid. And that’s saying something. Here’s why I think so.
All basketball players are overpaid
OK, let’s establish this first: From a societal benefit standpoint, all basketball players are overpaid. Any dollar number that has seven figures in it for a person who primarily puts a bouncy ball through a tall ring is ludicrous — unless you believe in the free market and its role in establishing salaries.
If you want to establish a new proposal where we assign salaries in some other way, I’m all ears. If you want to overthrow the whole of everything, I’m sympathetic.
But a free market world is the one we actually live in. So let’s restrict our conversation to that world.
NCAA revenue dwarfs player salaries
In 2022-23, the last year for which we have data, the NCAA as an institution made $1.3 billion dollars. About $900 million of that came from the NCAA selling the TV rights to the NCAA Tournament.
As the nation’s best prospect, Dybantsa will play a significant role in drawing eyeballs to the tournament. Take No. 1 prospect Zion Williamson’s 2019 run: His presence pushed TV ratings by an estimated 38% over the same time slot in the NCAA Tournament in a matchup that didn’t feature Zion. Dybantsa, though, will make about .6% of the amount CBS and partners are paying for those games.
Dybantsa’s rookie-year NBA salary
Dybantsa’s NIL payment also pales in comparison to what he’ll make as a 19-year-old in his first year in the NBA.
Right now, Dybantsa’s the projected No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft. If that holds, he would make approximately $15.2 million in his rookie season under the NBA’s collective bargaining agreement in that first season — more than double what he’ll make in college. Obviously, it’s not a guarantee that he’s the No. 1 pick, but odds are pretty good that he’s at least in the top five, where he’d make in the $10 million range per year to start his career.
Those figures also might represent underpays. Before 1995, rookie salaries were freely negotiated between player and team, and rookies held out for what would be fair to receive in a free market. The freely negotiated salaries were sometimes 2-4 times higher than what the rookie scale would ultimately prescribe once put in place.
If Utah Jazz CEO Danny Ainge and team owner Ryan Smith could freely pay AJ Dybantsa to come play for the Jazz today, you’d likely see a 5-year, $100 million deal, perhaps more. That’s just the reality of the situation.
The weight of the basketball industrial complex
What’s the basketball industrial complex? Well, it’s a catch-all term used to describe the huge numbers of hangers-on to talented players. Coaches, scouts, trainers, media, photographers, even groupies — they’re all part of the traveling circus that surrounds sports nowadays.
Those people all travel. And for one year, they’ll be headed to Provo, Utah, to watch the No. 1 prospect, to try to get their hands on him, to cover him, to use even just his aura for their benefit. It’s a bit depressing for this to happen with someone who’s just about to turn 18.
But there’s no doubt it’ll also be a source of huge profit to BYU’s community. The NBA reported Salt Lake City gained $38 million in direct hotel, food, shopping, transportation when the NBA hosted its All-Star game here in 2023. Dybantsa’s BYU games won’t be quite the spectacle All-Star Weekend was — but there will also be far more of them.
BYU’s not paying it all
CBSSports reported that BYU isn’t footing the whole bill for Dybantsa. Nike and Red Bull will also sponsor Dybantsa during his freshman year at BYU, with the two big sports brands betting (relatively) big on Dybantsa’s athleticism and scoring bringing fans to their businesses.
But again, there’s also significant evidence that this also pales in comparison to what Dybantsa could make on the free market. To use the comparison with Zion Williamson again, Jordan Brand signed the athletic scoring forward to a 5-year, $75 million deal as soon as he departed Duke, giving the rookie $15 million per year outside of his NBA contract. Dybantsa’s highlight-laden game also figures to play well with a similar audience as Zion.
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