Just like everyone else, Arizona State head coach Kenny Dillingham is trying to figure out the Big 12’s suddenly crowded title chase.
“If we win and someone else loses, and ranch dressing falls on a wing ... I don’t really know,” he joked about all the possible tiebreaker scenarios heading into the final two weeks of the season.
Here’s what BYU fans should know: Saturday’s meeting with the Sun Devils could be a make-or-break moment for the Cougars' dream season.
BYU can clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game this week if it beats ASU and Utah beats Iowa State.
The Colorado Buffaloes, who have just one conference loss heading into this weekend, could clinch a spot in the title game with a win over Kansas and wins by BYU and Utah.
But if the Cougars stumble this weekend, it might take a prayer and that wing after all.
The reason: A two-loss Big 12 team will not get an at-large bid to the playoff in all likelihood.
Just playing the odds, if BYU goes 10-2 and does not make the Big 12 title game, it has only a 5% chance of making the playoff, according to ESPN’s bracket predictor. Even if it goes 11-2 and loses the title game, the odds are just 34%.
The Cougars need to win the Big 12 if they don’t want to gamble like that.
And in order to make the championship game, it has to beat Arizona State this week to control its destiny.
That’s fine by Kalani Sitake.
“There was a little bit of that feeling when we lost [the season was over]. Like when you lost to Coastal Carolina [in 2020], or when you lose a game early [as an Independent] and you are out of the mix for a New Year’s Six bowl,” the BYU head coach said on Monday.
“Now we are in a conference and we are still sitting at the top of the conference. ... We are focused on the next one.”
Arizona State is favored by 3.5 points heading into that next one on Saturday night in Tempe. ESPN’s analytics give the Cougars a 44% chance of pulling off the win.
Depending on what happens with the Colorado Buffaloes, who also have just one conference loss heading into the weekend, BYU would need lots of help in the final week of the regular season if it loses to Arizona State.
That’s because both ASU and BYU would have two conference losses going into Week 12 — and ASU would own the tiebreaker over the Cougars.
So BYU would need to beat Houston to end the regular season and hope for Arizona State to lose. The Sun Devils are playing Arizona, which sits at 4-6, on the season’s final weekend.
And even if that happened, BYU wouldn’t be completely out of the woods. There is another two-loss team in the mix, Iowa State. The Cyclones could win out and create a scenario where both BYU and ISU have the same record.
In that case, the deciding factor would be the win percentage against all common conference opponents. For BYU and Iowa State, that would mean BYU would be 5-1. Iowa State (if it wins out to get to this scenario) would also be 5-1.
The next step would be each team’s win percentage against the next highest-place common opponent in the standings. If that doesn’t work, it would go by strength of record.
BYU can simplify everything by just winning this weekend.
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