The final weekend of college football before the College Football Playoff selection committee weighs in with its first rankings of the season had five teams in the AP Top 25 lose to unranked teams and three fall from the ranks of the unbeaten.
We learned in Week 10 that the number of contenders can shrink quickly.
Big 12 upsets
One of the most interesting questions heading into the first rankings is: How will the committee treat contenders from the Big 12 and ACC relative to the Big Ten and SEC? Does the committee see a divide among Power 4 teams after realignment seems to have created some separation between the top two and the next two?
The concern in the Big 12 is amplified because the perception is that the league has great balance but maybe not high-ceiling teams able to pull away from the pack.
Heading into the final month of the season, No. 9 BYU and No. 11 Iowa State were both undefeated overall, No. 17 Kansas State had just one loss to the Cougars, and No. 23 Colorado had one conference loss and was still a factor in the title game race. It was a nice four-team race with a chance to produce multiple double-digit victory teams and Playoff contenders.
Or maybe not.
Iowa State and Kansas State both were knocked off by unranked opponents on Saturday. The Cyclones lost at home to Texas Tech, which was on a two-game losing streak. The Wildcats fell to Houston (4-5, 3-3) in a rainstorm.
Conference commissioners and coaches are about to ramp up public politicking. The Big 12 will be aggressively pushing out the message that it is a multi-bid league. But Saturday was a good reminder that parity is not necessarily a plus for Playoff positioning.
So while BYU should be favored in all four of its remaining games, starting with the Holy War against Utah next week, getting to the Big 12 title game unblemished won’t be easy. Nor will getting two teams into the CFP for the Big 12. As of the latest update, Austin Mock’s projections model has only one Big 12 team, BYU, in the field, with a 51 percent chance.
Clemsoning
Clemson has not been in the College Football Playoff since 2020. Expansion to a 12-team field seemed like a good way to rectify that and soften the Tigers’ fall from the nation’s elite programs.
After Louisville went into Death Valley and beat Clemson for the first time ever, the field might still not be big enough to include the Tigers.
Clemson quietly had gone about the business of building back its CFP credentials since getting thumped by Georgia to start the season. The competition has not been great, but the Tigers have shown signs of being a little more like vintage Clemson: explosive on offense and obliterating lesser opponents. A visit to Death Valley by Louisville was a chance to validate the progress.
Instead, Louisville jumped out to a big lead, ran for 210 yards and put Clemson’s hopes for an at-large berth in peril.
“It’s coaching when people can run the ball on you like that,” Clemson coach Dabo Swinney told reporters. “That’s on the head coach. That’s been my whole life in the game of football.”
The Tigers (6-2, 5-1) are still in contention for an ACC championship and Playoff entry through that path, but Mock’s projections have the Tigers out of the field with a 29 percent chance to make it.
They’ll need help with both No. 5 Miami and No. 20 SMU still rolling.
Cam Ward and the Hurricanes did what they do, falling behind early before racing away from Duke to deny former Miami coach Manny Diaz an opportunity at revenge.
Meanwhile, SMU’s first year in the ACC has a chance to be historic — if it isn’t already. The Mustangs smashed No. 18 Pitt, handing the Panthers their first loss. The Panthers play Clemson, and the winner could still be heard from in the ACC, but the Mustangs and Canes are going to be tough to catch.
SMU (8-1, 5-0) finishes with Boston College, at Virginia and Cal. Miami has a trickier path to bringing a taking record to Charlotte for the title game with two road games (Georgia Tech and Syracuse) sandwiched around a home game against Wake Forest.
Reminder: SMU’s only loss is to BYU. That feels relevant.
Going nowhere
The game of the day, the fourth top-five matchup of the season, didn’t move the Playoff needle.
Ohio State beat Penn State for the eighth straight year, and the Nittany Lions’ chances to make the Playoff went from 89 percent to … 88 percent, per Mock’s model.
“I understand the frustration. Guys in the locker room are just as frustrated, if not more, but college football has changed,” Penn State coach James Franklin said.
It was obvious the Buckeyes, already with one loss, needed this victory more. Penn State fans frustrated with Franklin’s inability to get past the Buckeyes aren’t as forgiving as Mock’s model. Still, the Nittany Lions just have to avoid an upset at the hands of Washington, Minnesota or Maryland to end the season 11-1 and have a pretty good shot at hosting a Playoff game in December.
Meanwhile, the Buckeyes have one more big hurdle to clear, and it’s unbeaten Indiana — who would have thought? — in three weeks.
The Hoosiers have not been close to Ohio State in the AP rankings. Maybe they’ll crack the top 10 on Sunday. The selection committee’s rankings often have differed from the AP Top 25, but usually, those differences aren’t that dramatic.
Indiana ultimately will get to prove it on the field, but another item we’ll have an eye on come Tuesday is how much respect the committee has for the Hoosiers, who have not played a ranked team but are beating their opponents by 33 points per game.
Trap games in the SEC
The SEC has no more teams unbeaten in conference play after No. 10 Texas A&M was ambushed at South Carolina.
The Aggies (7-2, 5-1) were coming off an impressive victory against LSU that had A&M fans dreaming big about what could be in Mike Elko’s first season as head coach. Some big prizes are still in play, especially with a visit from No. 6 Texas on tap for Thanksgiving weekend.
“It feels like it is because it is. We are still tied for first,” Elko said.
A&M and Georgia are both 5-1 in the SEC, but it’s harder to take the Aggies seriously after they were held scoreless in the second half by the Gamecocks and gave up 530 yards of offense to LaNorris Sellers and company.
No. 2 Georgia and No. 7 Tennessee avoided similar trap games against Florida and Kentucky, respectively.
The SEC still looks well-positioned to get up to four teams in the field. No. 14 Alabama (6-2, 3-2) and No. 16 LSU (6-2, 3-1) are set to play what looks a lot like an elimination game on Saturday in Baton Rouge.
No. 19 Mississippi (7-2, 3-2) said “Hey, don’t forget about us!” by dropping 65 points on Arkansas. The Rebels’ last stand comes next week when Georgia heads to Oxford. Georgia also plays Tennessee later this month. Enough of the SEC’s contenders play each other to whittle the field down — or make it more cluttered.
Are there any more upsets lurking? Auburn plays both Texas A&M and Alabama. Doesn’t look like these Tigers are up for playing spoiler.
Florida gets Texas next week, but the Gators are likely down to their third-string quarterback. The Longhorns also visit old SEC rival Arkansas.
Here’s one: Vanderbilt, which has victories against Alabama and Auburn in the same season for the first time since 1955, hosts Tennessee in the regular-season finale.
Add Louisiana of the Sun Belt to the list of Group of 5 contenders, although the Ragin’ Cajuns (7-1, 4-0) are, without question, a long shot.
Louisiana’s only loss is to Tulane, which is going to be tough to overlook in head-to-head comparison with whomever the AAC champion turns out to be. The Cajuns’ only Power 5 game was a victory against Wake Forest (4-4). Not particularly notable.
The list of G5 contenders starts with No. 15 Boise State, which has a 61 percent chance to make the Playoff, per Mock’s model. Unbeaten Army will be an interesting ranking for the committee. The 21st-ranked Black Knights have played the softest schedule of any team that would be in consideration and have a 19 percent chance to make the field. And, of course, both Tulane (6 percent) and UNLV (16 percent) are viable options even with two losses if they win their conferences.
Louisiana would seem to be the break-glass-in-case-of-emergency fifth-highest-ranked conference champion if both the Mountain West or AAC produce upset champs such as Colorado State or Memphis.
