Can BYU really win the Big 12 title? Here’s what the numbers say

Provo • BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff called the Cougars’ game-winning an “out-of-body” experience.

He referenced the spiritual and the magical.

But what about the mathematical?

When BYU’s quarterback began the drive — 75 yards in a 1:03 — the Cougars had just a 3.1% chance to beat Oklahoma State, according to ESPN’s win probability metrics. At one point on that drive, the Cowboys had a 98.3% chance of leaving Provo with the W.

Yet, Retzlaff and the Cougars came out with a win.

Now the numbers are starting to look better for BYU.

What was once a juggernaut of a schedule now looks quite manageable. BYU will be favored to win four of its last five games, with this weekend’s matchup at UCF the lone exception, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index.

ESPN gives the Cougars a 3.6% chance of winning out, including claiming the Big 12 title.

Even if BYU does finish 4-1, or even 3-2 down the stretch, history shows it can get to the Big 12 title game without perfection.

For the last four years, the Big 12 has had at least one representative in the title game with multiple conference losses. Oklahoma State in 2023, Kansas State in 2022, Baylor in 2021 and Oklahoma in 2020 all dropped two conference games and still got in. Three of those teams (Baylor, OU, and K-State) even won the title game outright over the higher seed.

So BYU has wiggle room to make it to Arlington.

And this current Big 12 title race is setting up nicely for the Cougars. Only one other team in the league, Iowa State, is unbeaten. Of the one-loss teams, Kansas State is the most likely to win out, according to ESPN’s FPI.

BYU owns the tiebreaker with K-State. So if it comes down to a one-loss BYU team and a one-loss K-State team, BYU would be the one playing for a title in December.

Plus, Iowa State plays a much more difficult schedule down the stretch than BYU. It has Kansas State and two more one-loss teams still lying ahead.

The roads are opening up for the Cougars.

When BYU players started talking about a spot in the college football playoff last week, it was almost shocking to hear. Rarely have Kalani Sitake-coached teams talked about such lofty goals.

“We want to go to the playoff and a national championship,” wideout Parker Kingston said. “I think that’s what we are looking for.”

For what it’s worth, ESPN is giving the Cougars a 41.5% shot at making the College Football Playoff, and a 2% chance of reaching the title game.

If such dreams were to come true, the Cougars would become just the second Big 12 team to play for a national championship in the past decade. In 2022, the TCU Horned Frogs had a perfect regular season, punched their ticket to the Big 12 title game, and made it to the College Football Playoff.

But TCU and quarterback Max Duggan were never backed into a corner quite like Retzlaff and the Cougars were on Friday. The worst odds Duggan can say he faced was a 7% chance to beat Oklahoma State with six minutes to play before he pulled a Houdini to win in double overtime. Even in his iconic Baylor win — where TCU kicked a game-winning field goal at the buzzer — Duggan had a 12% chance before the final drive.

Then again, the Cougars have made a habit of beating the odds en route to their 7-0 start.

• There was the SMU game, where BYU weathered three turnovers en route to an 18-15 win.

• There was Kansas State, where the Cougars piled on 28 points in six minutes to blowout the then-No. 13 team in the country.

• There was Baylor, when Crew Wakley had a game-sealing interception with a minute to play.

• And now add Oklahoma State to the unlikely ledger — a 75-yard drive to come back with 10 seconds to go.

What will come next?

With five games remaining in the regular season, the pathway is clear for the Cougars to get to the Big 12 title game. And given the probabilities ahead, a postseason run is on the table for BYU.