Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. vs. Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy: Which CFP quarterback will be the better pro?

The only thing missing from Monday’s matchup for college football supremacy is the pristine Rose Bowl venue.

No. 1 Michigan and No. 2 Washington have met four times in what legendary announcer Keith Jackson coined “the granddaddy of them all,” with each winning two. This year, they will play in Houston, not picturesque Pasadena, but it will still be must-watch TV. NFL scouts and front-office executives who can’t be there in person will be focused intently from the couch, especially on the quarterbacks.

I love the matchup. Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. and Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy are both so talented, and yet, they could not be more different. One thing is for sure, though: They are both likely to play on Sundays, only adding to the high stakes for the College Football Playoff final.

Granted, McCarthy has not announced his intentions yet and has until Jan. 15 to do so, but for the sake of this discussion, let’s assume he’s going to enter the 2024 NFL Draft. Here’s how I see the two QBs entering the biggest game of their careers.

Michael Penix Jr. (6-foot-3, 212 pounds)

Penix operates very comfortably from the pocket. He can buy time with subtle movements or even tuck the ball and run for a first down. He seldom seems to panic and is often effective late in the down. He has the arm strength to make all the throws, and he’s had the best deep ball in college football this year. He has a natural feel for the correct trajectory and touch on most throws. That is hard to coach. He also has the arm strength and confidence to fit balls into tight windows from either college hash and can be surgical with his accuracy and ball placement.

An underrated trait is his ability to alter his arm angle and get the ball out quickly. Watching left-handed quarterbacks can sometimes play tricks on even the best evaluators because they don’t see a lot of releases from that side. To me, one question Penix answered recently is his ability to throw without having his feet set or under him. Some see his delivery as being a little long, but I think it can be sped up, and at times, he shows he can really get the ball out of his hand quickly.

Penix has excellent vision downfield in identifying targets and reading coverage. His decision-making is solid, and because of his patience, he can let plays develop before he pulls the trigger. His anticipation and trust in his receivers and the system allow him to make some throws that are impossible to defend. You rarely see this at the college level. The word that best describes Penix for me is polished.

J.J. McCarthy (6-3, 202)

McCarthy has an advantage in this comparison with his legs. He can make things happen on scrambles and designed QB runs in a more explosive way than Penix. He can elude pressure, but at times, he seems hurried and will bolt too quickly.

He has a really strong arm, even by NFL standards. Tight-window throws and confidence are not an issue. Sometimes, McCarthy will take an unneeded risk because he thinks he can make any throw, but I get it. He has an easy throwing motion; the ball comes off his hand smoothly, and I definitely consider him a passer as opposed to a thrower (there is a difference). He has a feel for touch on shorter routes and throws a catchable ball for the most part. He does not have many targets with top-level NFL ball skills, so some incompletions will become completions at the next level.

McCarthy has good vision downfield from the pocket, but a lot of his throws have come off of play-action or on RPOs where targets are predetermined. That means there is slightly less on his shoulders to determine who to throw to. The play call often decides where the ball is going, and he knows this before he leaves the huddle. He has natural instincts and feel in the pocket, vision downfield and the ability to anticipate receivers coming open, so I have no doubt about him in a timing-based offensive scheme, especially once he has more experience.

Factoring schemes and responsibilities

Penix is a sixth-year player who spent his first four seasons at Indiana, all of which ended with injuries (which will affect his status with some NFL teams), before following Kalen DeBoer — the former Hoosiers offensive coordinator who is now the Huskies’ head coach — to Washington via the transfer portal. Sometimes, the NFL frowns on players who spend an extra year in college, but in my opinion, it has helped Penix in so many ways. He has clearly mastered this offensive scheme, and it took time to build the confidence and poise he now shows.

At Indiana, these results were not possible. Penix lacked the pocket presence and the ability to process information like he will need to at the next level. But now, he has reached the top tier of the learning curve. He might be the most polished of all quarterbacks in this draft class — at least from the pocket — and that includes everyone’s presumed No. 1 choice, Caleb Williams from USC. Penix has proved he can operate from the pocket, whether clean or muddy, at a different level.

McCarthy’s path here has been much different. He is just three years removed from high school and 20 years old. His tools — off-the-charts arm strength and athleticism to extend plays and produce on designed runs — are his calling card. He has less than half as many pass attempts (695) as Penix (1,634), so naturally his processing speed is a bit behind the Huskies QB.

Here is the other side of that coin, though: NFL evaluators can identify McCarthy’s traits, and his lack of reps might give him a higher ceiling once he masters his trade. Where would he be in Year 6 of his development? It makes for a fascinating comparison that will no doubt lead to hours of discussion within NFL buildings if McCarthy does enter the draft this year.

Some scouts struggle with the lack of sophistication of the Wolverines’ passing game, especially compared to Washington’s and what Penix is asked to do. I think McCarthy has been asked to do less when it comes to pre-snap administration of the offense. Penix runs a master class managing the Huskies’ offense before the snap, overseeing varied alignments, motions and shifts, and gathering pass protection intel. I have no doubt McCarthy can do the same — it just requires a leap of faith because it’s not as evident at this point.

Put another way, Penix runs a system that accentuates his skills perfectly and has a proven track record of production to go with his talent. As we saw in the semifinal game, he is playing at a very high level. Meanwhile, McCarthy runs a system that might not be perfect for his talent or skill set, which will require more projection when assessing him at the next level in a more complicated system.

Assessing intangibles

NFL scouts are much further along in gathering intangible information on Penix. He has been listed with all other senior prospects all year long. This means scouts have been able to ask Washington coaches and staffers questions — about Penix’s background information, leadership, work habits, medical information, etc. — freely on school visits throughout the fall.

That information is very tricky to gather on players who might be returning for another year, like McCarthy, especially at a place like Michigan, which has been known to not always be open with its information to visiting scouts. Gathering character and background information on McCarthy is a much different process for scouts than it was for Penix.

Off-field information is a big part of the evaluation process. Those of us on the outside are not as plugged in as scouts and NFL executives, and for quarterbacks, this part of their file might be even more important than their arm strength. If these things check out, I could see either of these guys being top-10 picks, maybe even higher, in April.

Comparisons

NFL decision-makers usually like their scouts to give some type of reference or comparison to another player at the same position with a similar style of game. For example, I used John Elway as a comparison for Josh Allen when he was coming out. That didn’t mean I saw Allen as another Elway. It meant that Allen’s size, style and skill set were similar to Elway’s. Dolphins defensive coordinator Vic Fangio made the same comparison this week in preparing for their game against the Bills.

For McCarthy, I see the upside of a Jim Kelly, if he were to be inserted into the K-Gun system of yesteryear’s Buffalo Bills. For younger readers, he’s a less polished C.J. Stroud, with major upside.

As for Penix, I’m dating myself again, but he reminds me of another Huskies great: He is a left-handed Warren Moon with an uncanny ability to throw the deep ball and instincts and touch that can’t be coached.

Bottom line

Trying to predict how Penix and McCarthy will be picked without a complete evaluation is really difficult. Their talent tells me they are worthy of being top-10 picks, but that will be affected by the quality of the draft at other positions as well.

With certainty though, a college game of this magnitude will carry more weight than almost any other in the eyes of coaches and scouts. Bright lights are a big part of any evaluation. Teams will decide who is the best fit for their systems. One player might be more polished, but the other might have more upside.

The order of QB1 through QB5 in this class is about to get interesting in draft rooms across the NFL. Get your popcorn ready.

— This article originally appeared in The Athletic.