The first two weeks of Shohei Ohtani’s free agency have generated breathless intrigue, rampant speculation and a growing list of suitors preparing to bid for his services. What this fortnight has not done is solve the central mystery. The paradigm remains the same: Everyone wants him. And no one is quite sure what he wants.
Ohtani is a two-time American League MVP still in his 20s who has demonstrated excellence both at the plate and on the mound. He also is coming off major elbow surgery and figures to spend at least 2024 as primarily a designated hitter. The range of outcomes for his next contract has captivated the industry.
Players are itching to learn the identity of Ohtani’s destination and the absurdity of his salary. So are league executives, agents and most everyone with even tangential interest in a baseball team.
“I have no idea,” said one National League general manager. “No idea. It’s going to be fascinating, though, isn’t it?”
The rest of the market may not move significantly until Ohtani decides. Such is life when the list of potential suitors includes the Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets, New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Texas Rangers, Atlanta Braves, San Francisco Giants, Seattle Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays. Even a reunion with the Los Angeles Angels remains possible.
Yet this chase is not the ordinary, annual marquee free agent sizing up the best offers from the league’s big spenders. There’s always a comparison for every pitcher or hitter on the open market, a reference point that teams and agents can use to dictate new terms. Not in this case, where so little remains known about the whims and desires of the central character. Ohtani has not addressed the media since Aug. 9, more than a month before he underwent elbow surgery. After Ohtani captured his second American League MVP award last week, his scheduled session with reporters was canceled. Everyone is clamoring for an answer about what Ohtani desires — how long he intends to pitch, what kind of contract structure he’d accept, his willingness to play other positions down the road — and he remains a black box, at least publicly.
The lack of clarity and the outsized intrigue about his future has created an unprecedented situation, as revealed in interviews with players and executives, some of whom requested anonymity to speak freely about a free agent.
“He’s a unicorn,” said White Sox GM Chris Getz.
(Paul Sancya | AP) Los Angeles Angels pitcher Shohei Ohtani throws against the Detroit Tigers in the fourth inning during the first baseball game of a doubleheader, Thursday, July 27, 2023, in Detroit.
So how much is a unicorn worth to a baseball team?
Now that the postseason has ended, now that the managerial carousel has almost slowed to a stop, now that award season has come and gone, Ohtani can once more occupy the attention of the industry. He will dominate conversations at the Winter Meetings in two weeks. This will be a free-agent pursuit unlike any other.
“I’m fascinated,” said an AL executive. “Where is he going to end up? What’s the role going to be? How will this role in 2024 affect the probability that he returns as a dominant starter in ’25? How do you price that? Where does he end up? What market? How does he change the balance of the division race both in ‘24 and ‘25? Because, it’s very different, right? It’s like you’re adding an impact bat for ‘24 and you’re adding an impact bat and an impact starter for ‘25. It’s fascinating.”
Those are the questions people in the game are asking, the questions necessary to contemplate for any organization considering an investment that will likely cost more than a half-billion dollars. It’s not just executives of the Dodgers or Giants or Cubs or Yankees or Mets or Blue Jays or Rangers or Red Sox attempting to determine what contract will ultimately be required. It’s players. It’s former teammates. It’s those who know him best — yet still have no idea what he wants or what he deserves.
“It’s a player going into free agency like we’ve never seen before,” said Kole Calhoun, Ohtani’s teammate with the Angels in 2018 and ‘19. “Both sides of the ball, in today’s game? Let’s see what that’s worth.”
The Athletic’s Tim Britton projected Ohtani would sign a 12-year deal totaling $520 million, which would be the heftiest contract in MLB history, topping the 12-year, $426.5 million extension Ohtani’s longtime co-star, Mike Trout, signed with the Angels. The projected contract would match Max Scherzer’s record for average annual value, $43.3 million per season. Granted, Scherzer signed for three years. Ohtani could sign for a decade.
Or, Ohtani could opt for a shorter contract, one that still features a record-setting average annual value, but also would allow him to reset his market if he can return to being a two-way force.
Ohtani underwent elbow surgery in September after tearing his ulnar collateral ligament. Neither the Angels nor Ohtani’s agent, Nez Balelo, provided a formal description of the procedure performed by Dodgers team physician Dr. Neal ElAttrache; the Los Angeles Times has reported the procedure was Ohtani’s second Tommy John surgery. Either way, Ohtani won’t pitch in 2024. Balelo has expressed hope Ohtani can return to the mound in 2025. The uncertainty only clouds his market further. What if there were no doubts about his ability to both power home runs into the outfield and record a Cy Young Award-caliber ERA, as has been the case the past few years?
As one NL executive said: “I don’t have a great feel for it. Obviously, it’s changed, knowing that he’s not going to pitch next year. But I don’t know how much it has changed, and I don’t have a great sense of what he’ll be asking for.”
Ohtani has voiced his desire to win, but would he accept a more modest salary to anchor a better roster? Does he have geographical preferences? Is the length of the contract a sticking point? Will teams be so desperate to land him that he’ll have the ability to dictate exactly what he wants?
“From everything I’ve heard, he isn’t driven by cash,” another NL executive said. “He turned down a lot of money [in Japan] to come here in the first place. So it’ll just be about where he feels is the best fit.”
Six years ago, every team crafted a playbook intended to convince Ohtani to join their franchise. No one knew of his preferences then, either. He narrowed the field to seven finalists: the Angels, Mariners, Rangers, Cubs, Dodgers, Giants and Padres. The Angels won out … and haven’t won anything since, which is why one AL executive suggested there was little chance he would re-sign with them unless the Angels bid $100 million more than the next team.
(Mark J. Terrill | AP) Los Angeles Angels' Shohei Ohtani celebrates as he rounds first after hitting a two-run home run during the seventh inning of a baseball game against the New York Yankees Monday, July 17, 2023, in Anaheim, Calif.
Since he arrived in the majors, Ohtani has soared past expectations and rewired the baseball brain to understand how a modern player can thrive in both phases of such a specialized sport. He’s the first player ever to unanimously win multiple MVP awards. He’s the reigning AL home run king who also hits for average, draws walks and steals bases. When healthy, he has lurked in the shadows of the Cy Young Award race, with worthwhile rate stats but an innings total that falls a bit short because, well, he’s a little too busy to be logging seven innings every five days.
“He’s become the face of baseball,” Calhoun said. “When he’s on the mound or he’s in the box, people stop and watch. Everybody.”
On the heels of a 62-homer campaign, Aaron Judge landed a free-agent record $360 million deal with the Yankees last winter. He hasn’t pitched since his senior year at Linden (Calif.) High, though.
“This is on another level,” Calhoun said. “It’s like if Judge went out and was a 20-game winner as well.”
That prices Ohtani out of the plans for many teams. One executive, for instance, shared he wouldn’t even bother to consider a sales pitch to present to the franchise’s owner, given how much Ohtani’s salary would inflate the club’s payroll. There won’t be 30 Ohtani playbooks this time.
For teams in pursuit, though, what’s the ceiling? If they’re willing to offer Ohtani $500 million, why stop there if a bidding war pushes his price past that number? His skill set makes him the league’s greatest spectacle, a dream for anyone working in the marketing, corporate sponsorships or ticket sales departments for the team that lands him. One executive suggested that teams may be able to offset a significant chunk, if not all, of Ohtani’s salary through sponsorships. The marketing potential for Ohtani’s next team, with global reach, is infinite.
“A guy like that,” Calhoun said, “can change the shape of your organization’s future.”
Calhoun said he has texted Ohtani’s interpreter, Ippei Mizuhara, seeking a scoop on Ohtani’s plans, but to no avail. He said Ohtani is a private guy. He has hidden in plain sight. What do we know about him?
“My sense is that he wants to be the best ever, but I don’t think he would ever publicly say that,” said Cardinals outfielder Lars Nootbaar, who played with Ohtani in the World Baseball Classic. “Just by watching him and how he works, how he carries himself, he’s a super humble guy. He’s a crazy competitor, maybe a little bit more quiet than other guys, but I think he wants to be the best ever.”
Whatever Ohtani signs for, Calhoun predicts no player’s contract will rival the terms of his deal “for a long, long time.”
“What’s his comp, Babe Ruth?” Calhoun asked. “That’s your only comp.”
Free agency, of course, didn’t exist when the Red Sox shipped Ruth to the Yankees in 1920 for $100,000 in cash used to finance a Broadway show.
No one else has these measurements, these credentials, this potential to leave his mark on the record books, a pennant chase, an organization, a city. Ohtani is as appointment-viewing as it gets in baseball, and his free agency showcase should be no different.
“I can’t wait to see what happens with him,” Calhoun said. “A guy who can hit the ball 500 feet and throw the ball 100 mph — now he’s going to be a free agent. It’s going to be insane.”
The Athletic’s Katie Woo contributed to this report.
— This article originally appeared in The Athletic.
