Donovan Mitchell has always relied on his leaping ability, but he’ll need to keep his dribble alive to get where he wants to go

For most of his basketball career, Donovan Mitchell’s vertical has gotten him to where he wants to go.

When he played in AAU, what were the odds that both his man could keep up with Mitchell, and he’d find a defender rotating over in time to stop him from getting to the rim? When he encountered an ACC big man in the paint, what were the odds Mitchell couldn’t, in his words, “jump through, around, or over” him?

And even when he came into the NBA, the athleticism more than sufficed. He jumped in to the starting lineup in his first month. He jumped past DeMarcus Cousins in New Orleans for his breakout 41-point night. And of course, his leaping ability won him a Slam Dunk title on All-Star Weekend, a shoe deal, and instant fame.

Only now, in his third season, are the stakes higher. Yes, Mitchell successfully captivated everyone’s attention, but now the pressure is on to win at the highest levels. As the franchise has developed, so too have the expectations.

And so has Mitchell. He’s scoring more efficiently than ever before, with fewer turnovers than ever before. He’s become a useful weapon on the defensive end, more solid in year three than years one and two.

Yet, he wants more. Why?

Let’s get nerdy for a second. As pointed out by Twitter Jazz fan McCadeP8, Donovan Mitchell is a great example of a statistician’s familiar paradox — Simpson’s Paradox. We’ll let Wikipedia explain: Simpson’s Paradox is “a phenomenon in probability and statistics, in which a trend appears in several different groups of data but disappears or reverses when these groups are combined.”

Mitchell’s Paradox is this: The Jazz guard is either more efficient than the rest of the league or just as good as the rest of the league from everywhere, and yet when you look at the overall picture of his scoring, it is below league average in terms of efficiency.

At the rim, he shoots 65% — league average. Between 3 feet and 10 feet, he shoots 39% — league average. Between 10-16 feet, Mitchell shoots a remarkable 51%, much higher than league average at 41%. Ditto with his shooting between 16 feet and the 3-point line: Mitchell shoots 51% there too, and league average drops to 40%. From distance, Mitchell shoots 35%: league average. He’s a very good free throw shooter, making 84% — league average is 77%.

And yet because he takes fewer of his shots from at the rim and beyond the 3-point line than most, Mitchell makes a lower percentage of his overall shots than league average. Mitchell’s effective field goal percentage is 51%, league average is 52%. Now, being able to score at one percent less than NBA average at Mitchell’s volume is wildly impressive — you can count the number of humans alive capable of this on your hands and toes — but again, Mitchell isn’t happy with that.

In particular, all of those shots from 3-10 feet lower Mitchell’s overall efficiency a great deal. Mitchell knows why he takes so many shots from there, too: when faced with an impending defender, he jumps. It’s his career’s go-to move. And now, with NBA strength and length, and more teams playing drop-big defense than ever before, his go-to move isn’t as effective as he’d like.

So what’s next?

“Just not have to jump every time, just keeping the dribble alive,” Mitchell said. “With me having jumped so much in my first two years of the league, everyone’s expecting that, so you never know what opens up if you keep your dribble alive.”

Getting just one or two more dribbles makes Mitchell’s life a lot easier. Take perhaps the game’s most important play against Atlanta, in which Mitchell kept his dribble alive as he was being well defended on his path to the rim. He didn’t fumble it, as the commentator said, just took one more dribble than expected. Once Mitchell exited the paint, Royce O’Neale was open for the three, as the entire Hawks defense was focused on the drive. Of course they were — Mitchell usually jumps.

That search dribble can set up teammates in Steve Nash-ian fashion, but it can also make his scoring easier as well. Mitchell can get all the way under the basket and finish with an easy layup, rather than with a tough floater.

"That was my favorite play of the game. It was exciting to see my work finally come to fruition,” Mitchell said about the reverse layup he scored in Atlanta.

Not relying on the leap can have other benefits, too. Mitchell pointed out that learning how to score in other ways could make him more efficient into his 30s, and make his career last longer. It can reduce the stress on his body now, and potentially reduce the chance of injury. Nobody’s telling Mitchell to never jump — and he’d never agree — but diversifying his portfolio of moves can give him more counters to the NBA’s stringent defenses.

Or, as Mitchell said, “It helps to make the shots easier rather than trying to jump through and around and over people.”

That’s the irony. By not jumping, Mitchell can take a leap forward in his career — up the league’s list of efficient scorers.