Jazz opening the playoffs vs. the Rockets isn’t ideal, but they’ve got no choice but to deal with it

The NBA’s final regular-season standings and playoff seedings may say the Houston Rockets are the fourth-best team in the Western Conference, but not many people seem to actually believe that.

Sure, the Rockets’ 53-29 final record was a 14-game drop-off from a season ago, but there were myriad factors that played into that.

First off, there was a brutally lethargic 11-14 start over the first two months, born out of not yet having gotten over last season’s conference finals meltdown vs. the Warriors; the struggles in reconstructing the defense after losing Trevor Ariza to free agency, and assistant coach Jeff Bzdelik — widely considered the architect of their successful scheme — to temporary retirement; plus the subtraction-by-addition Carmelo Anthony experiment that quickly went wrong.

Beyond that, Houston wound up playing without future first-ballot Hall of Famer Chris Paul for 24 games this year, and was missing emerging center Clint Capela for 15 more.

So, given that the Rockets closed the season on a 42-15 run (including a league-best 20-5 after the All-Star break), which featured a transcendent offensive performance from reigning MVP James Harden, it’s no stretch to suggest that the opponent the Utah Jazz are getting in their 4-vs.-5 seed first-round playoff matchup may legitimately be considered the second-best group in the West behind two-time defending champion Golden State.

“They played better than anybody in the league the second half of the season. They fought through some injuries. What can you say? They’re a terrific team,” Jazz coach Quin Snyder said. “We know how difficult the series will be, and we’ll prepare and compete, and that’s all we can do.”

Yeah, Utah knows all too well how good Houston is. The Rockets, after all, did boot the Jazz from the 2018 postseason, winning their second-round series 4-1.

The teams split four games this season, and each won once on the other’s home court, suggesting they might be more evenly matched this time around.

There are caveats, asterisks, whatever you want to call them, to that, if you’re willing to look for them, however. In their Oct. 24 matchup, the Jazz won in Houston, 100-89, but the Rockets were without Paul, and Harden exited late with an injury. Meanwhile, the Rockets wound up winning the final two meetings, and the last of them — a 125-98 demolition at Vivint Smart Home Arena — came without both Paul and Capela.

No one is suggesting that means Utah has no chance. But there are also plenty who are not shy in pointing out that the Jazz’s two victories this season came when the Rockets were not optimally configured just yet.

So, can they hang with a rolling Rockets squad now?

In the immediate aftermath of Wednesday’s regular-season-closing overtime loss to the Clippers, in which the Jazz rested most of their rotation regulars, no one was yet ready to dive into the X’s and O’s of their upcoming postseason matchup.

Snyder, asked if he’d yet given any thought on how to reverse his team’s postseason fortunes against the Rockets, quipped, “The whole game I was sitting on the bench tonight, I was thinking about that! We’re gonna try to win, how’s that?”

Still, Houston couldn’t help but be on some players’ minds.

“We’re excited — whenever you get an opportunity to play postseason basketball, you’re excited. But obviously, we’re even more excited ’cause they knocked us out of the playoffs last year,” said forward Georges Niang. “It’s gonna be a fun series for sure.”

But will it be a successful one?

While it’s true that, to ultimately be successful, you eventually have to play the best teams, that doesn’t mean it’s ideal to face such a strong contender in the first round.

Many Jazz fans were openly rooting for a series with Portland, considering the Blazers are without physical center and most-improved candidate Jusuf Nurkic, have only recently seen high-scoring guard CJ McCollum return form injury, and, of course, the fact that, as the No. 3 seed in the playoffs a year ago, they were shockingly swept in the opening round by the Pelicans.

Still, none of the myriad results over the season’s final two days that could have resulted in such a pairing — a Rockets victory over the Thunder, a Lakers win against the Blazers, a Wolves win vs. the Nuggets, or the Kings prevailing against Portland (despite the Blazers seemingly doing all they could to tank the game) — wound up coming to fruition.

The Jazz themselves probably could have helped avoid a Rockets matchup if they’d simply allowed themselves to lose to the Nuggets in their second-to-last game. They decided not to. They weren’t going to duck anyone or chase any particular matchup. And so they’re willing to live with the consequences.

Many pundits, in assessing Utah’s playoff potential before the field was officially set, noted that the Jazz would be a “tough out” for the true contenders. If the Jazz want to be more than that against the Rockets, they know they must do more.

“We know what to expect, and they know what to expect from us,” Snyder said. “But we’re always looking for ways to be better and do better, and we’ll take a look at that, and prepare, and our guys will do the same thing. Whatever adjustments we can make.”