None of the Jazz players would come right out and say one way or the other on this, but with just five games remaining on their regular-season schedule and playoff positioning coming to a critical point, the questions emerge: Who would the Jazz prefer to play in the postseason’s first round? Who do they want to avoid? Who should they want to avoid? Should they want to avoid anyone?
A healthy outlook and attitude for the Jazz themselves is … whoever, whatever, whenever. Worrying about playoff matchups, or trying to actually lose a game down the stretch to position themselves for a more favorable matchup is weak, and could lead to competitive atrophy, a pitiable condition. If you’re going to be the best, you can’t wish away the best, you’ve got beat them, sooner or later, so why sweat it?
Here’s why … because the Jazz would struggle mightily to oust a team like the Rockets. Let’s make it more plain: If the Jazz face the Rockets in the first round, they’re going to lose.
Their chance wouldn’t be quite as thin or fat against the Blazers or, in a much less likely scenario, the Clippers. Barring weirdness, or fortunate losses, it’s probably going to be Houston or Portland.
If the Jazz finish fifth in the West, they would face the fourth-place team, and vice-versa. As of this writing, they are in the fifth slot, Portland and Houston are tied at the third-fourth, two games ahead of Utah. The Clips are in sixth, a half-game behind the Jazz.
It’s obviously not always an accurate forecast or blueprint, but the Jazz tied with the Blazers and the Rockets during the regular season, 2-2, and defeated the Clippers twice, with one more game to play. The Jazz downed Portland and Houston in the first games and the Blazers and Rockets won the last two.
Athletic scoring guards have hurt the Jazz on more than a few occasions this season, and there aren’t many better than Damian Lillard, a player basketball observers in Utah have been more than aware of for years now, since his days at Weber State. In fact, many Jazz fans wish Lillard would one day team up with Donovan Mitchell in Utah’s backcourt, forming what would be the most exciting guard tandem in the NBA.
As a Blazer, though, he could kill them. That’s less likely with the awful injury to Jusuf Nurkic, a frontline player with whom Portland has excelled. His absence now would free up Jazz bigs to cover for their perimeter teammates, who could crowd Lillard and CJ McCollum, if he’s healthy, from deep, and if they get beat, Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors would be available to interrupt their flow closer to the basket.
On the other hand, the Blazers have now won 10 of their last 12 games, even without Nurkic. And with that guard line, they are difficult for any opponent. Just not as difficult for the Jazz as the Rockets.
Houston is a Jazz nightmare.
As aggravating as some in and around the Jazz find James Harden’s style of play, with constant whistles and a seemingly never-ending traipsing to the foul line, he is darn near impossible for them to defend. As strong as they are at that end, the Jazz can’t slow Harden. He has his way, averaging 34 points against them.
Throw in the contributions of Chris Paul and Clint Capela, and it’s easy to see why the Jazz would prefer to go another way. Everyone remembers how Houston booted the Jazz from the playoffs last postseason. That series was … difficult.
An encore shot would serve this one purpose: It would show how much progress the Jazz have really made this time around. The Rockets are not the same team as they were a year ago, but they remain a major challenge.
One of the problems for the Jazz if they finish in either the fourth or fifth spots, and they beat the Blazers (or the Rockets) in that first round, barring a huge upset, they would get the Warriors in the second round (unless Denver somehow passes them). All the hurdles the Rockets present the Jazz, the Warriors put up all of that and more.
If Utah finishes sixth, and Houston drops to fourth, and the Jazz go on to play their best basketball, they could avoid Golden State, if it indeed finishes first, until the Western Conference finals. For a still-emerging team, that would be a head trip.
On the other hand, if the Jazz continue to live by Quin Snyder’s mantra — improve every game and give nothing back — they could fight straight through to facing Houston in the first round, and if, by some miracle, they were to beat the Rockets, meet up with Golden State in the second.
Whew.
Maybe losing a game or two down the stretch isn’t so bad after all. Maybe a little timely, pitiable competitive atrophy could help them, could be their friend, as long as it doesn't snuggle up too long, too close.
GORDON MONSON hosts “The Big Show” with Jake Scott weekdays from 3-7 p.m. on 97.5 FM and 1280 AM The Zone.
