NBA free agency opens at 10:01 p.m. MDT Saturday. Here’s a look at the most important story lines to follow.
Summer of LeBron
Even at 33, James remains the dominant force in the game, and his free agency will again be the league’s No. 1 topic of conversation. The difference this time around is that his options aren’t great. After opting out of the final year of his deal Friday, he’ll likely either stay with the Cleveland Cavaliers or join the Los Angeles Lakers. As constituted, neither can be a true championship contender next season, leaving him with a complicated decision.
Whither Kawhi Leonard?
The curious case of Leonard’s battle with the San Antonio Spurs hung over the team, and the league, for most of the season. After the draft, General Manager R.C. Buford said the Spurs want to keep Leonard, but if they have to trade him, they won’t give him away. Adding to the intrigue is the possibility of the Lakers pairing him and James, which would instantly return the Lakers to being an NBA power and form another credible challenger to the two-time defending champion Golden State Warriors.
Paul George, power-shifter?
While there understandably has been so much attention paid to James, George has an equally big decision. The past few days have seen the winds shift in the direction of him remaining with the Oklahoma City Thunder - which would be a coup for a small-market team that swung for the fences by trading for him with a year left on his deal last summer. If he leaves, though, he’ll likely go to the Lakers or Philadelphia 76ers, which could shift the balance of power in either half of the league.
Unlucky restricted free agents
Because of the severe lack of salary cap space around the league - a hangover from teams’ drunken spending sprees in 2016 - this year’s restricted free agent class could be in for a rude awakening. Players including Jabari Parker, Aaron Gordon, Dante Exum, Marcus Smart, Julius Randle, Zach LaVine and Jusuf Nurkic could find themselves without a realistic suitor, leading to protracted holdouts with their current teams. In some cases, taking a one-year qualifying offer might be the only option available.
Will the Sixers land a big fish?
In Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid, Philadelphia arguably has the best one-two punch of young talent in the NBA. Now, armed with max cap space, the Sixers enter free agency hoping to add an established star like James or George. It’s far from a failure if they don’t - presuming health, the window for contention here is wide open for some time. But if they do, the Sixers will have a credible case to win the Eastern Conference next season.
A Lakers return to relevance?
It has been a long five years in Los Angeles, where the days of the Lakers lording over the NBA feels like a lifetime ago. But with a burgeoning core of young players, coupled with a front office of Rob Pelinka and Magic Johnson that has begun to turn things around, this could finally be the summer that changes.
What’s the market for Boogie?
DeMarcus Cousins is one of the league’s most talented players, a 7-footer who can do everything offensively and turn it on defensively when he’s engaged. He also has a mercurial personality so combustible that some teams won’t touch him, and he’s coming off an Achilles’ tear in January - the most devastating injury an NBA player can suffer. It seems most likely that he re-signs in New Orleans. But if the Pelicans go in another direction, where will he land? Dallas is one possibility. The Lakers are another. But if those teams aren’t interested, it’s not clear where Cousins, despite his talent, will be playing.
Will any team blow it up?
Given the amount of cap space tied up around the league, for many of its 30 teams there are limited avenues for improving the roster. For some teams at inflection points - the Portland Trail Blazers, Toronto Raptors and Washington Wizards, to name a few - that could lead to a difficult choice: Run it back with what you have now, or make a franchise-altering decision by dealing a top player?
What happens to the glut of big men?
As teams continue to look for more wing players, that leaves less playing time - and fewer roster spots - for big men. Not only will that make it tougher for them to find jobs, but for the ones who do find jobs, it’ll be tough to get paid the way they expect. It’s not a new trend, but the lack of cap space will only speed up the process.
What of the luxury tax implications?
The cap spike two summers ago led to a massive amount of money coming into the system - money that teams spent all at once. With the cap flattening out since, a glut of teams are facing luxury-tax bills next season. Will contending tax teams be willing to use their mid-level exceptions to improve the roster? Will bottom feeders with cap space such as the Atlanta Hawks and Chicago Bulls be able to extract exorbitant prices to take undesirable deals off those teams’ hands? Financial decisions, for many teams, will be as crucial as talent decisions this July.
