In the fog of the presidential election, I have not seen an evaluation of prospects for the two major parties in Utah as demonstrated in the primary elections on March 5 of this year. There are several reasons that primary votes may not be representative, but they provide concrete evidence in that they represent actual votes. Based on votes received by Joe Biden in the Democratic election and by Donald Trump and Nikki Haley respectively in the Republican election, a picture emerges that is different from polls or most publicized expectations.
Joe Biden received 59,235 votes in the Democratic primary. There were also 3,562 votes and 3,065 votes cast for Marianne Williamson and Dean Phillips in the Democratic primary. Donald Trump and Niki Haley received 48,350 and 36,621 votes, respectively, in the Republican primary. Thus, there were 150,833 total votes cast, 56.3% for Republicans and 43.7% for Democrats.
The key question in the final election is what happens to the Haley votes, assuming the Democratic votes hold for Harris Walz. If Trump gets 2/3 of them, he loses to Harris 48.2% to 51.8%. If Harris gets 2/3 of the Haley votes, she wins Utah 59.9% to 40.1%. The magic number of Haley votes that Harris needs to win Utah assuming she also gets the Williamson and Phillips votes is 9,555 of the 36.621 votes cast for Haley — 26.1% of the votes she received in Utah. Trump’s magic number is 27,067 Haley votes, 73.9% of them.
What, then, did the Haley votes in February represent? This is indeed the question, as Democrats hold a decided numeric advantage in winning them over.
Kenneth Tingey, Logan
