This is part of a series of forward-looking predictions for 2025. Read more.
Eight centuries ago, a megadrought drove early inhabitants of Utah from their homes, leaving dwellings, artwork and other incredible artifacts as the Ancestral Puebloans moved to find water.
Utahns now face a similar period of decades-long drought, highlighted by a shrinking Great Salt Lake. A dry lakebed will not only result in the loss of a critical ecosystem on the western flyway, but also a valley filled with dust. Will modern Utahns be forced to abandon their homes too? Will the Wasatch Front become uninhabitable?
Like the ancestors of the Hopi, Zuni and Rio Grande Puebloans, we cannot control the cyclical megadrought. When researchers study ancient tree-rings and evidence of soil moisture, a reoccurring pattern suggests these lengthy dry periods occur naturally. What’s more, human-caused climate change, resulting in higher temperatures, appears to be exacerbating the current megadrought. This doesn’t bode well for maintaining the elevation of Great Salt Lake.
Because we cannot act quickly to alter global warming, and because the megadrought conditions are out of our control, we have only one lever left to pull: We must decrease our use of water for development, industry and agriculture. The consumptive use of water is the biggest threat to the natural flow of water into the lake.
As we turn the page to a new year, the elevation of Great Salt Lake has dropped to an elevation similar to 2021, when many lake researchers were sounding alarm bells about the crisis we were witnessing. Indeed, that trajectory led the lake to a historic low set the next year. Mother Nature bought us some time with the snowpack from 2023, but La Niña conditions this year predict a warmer and drier winter.
Great Salt Lake is shallow, and a higher rate of evaporation due to warmer temperatures coupled with less precipitation could result in a rapid demise of the system. The shrinking lake poses two problems. One is the drop in elevation that will expose the photosynthetic mats on the bottom of the lake that power the food chains and will create airborne dust laden with toxins. The second problem is a rise in salinity which makes the water too salty for water birds and the shrimp and flies they depend on. Warmer temperatures and megadrought conditions will be difficult forces for us to combat to keep the lake ecosystem flourishing and to protect human health.
But it’s not all bad news: The combined forces of Utahns over the past few years demonstrates commitment and progress. Utah has recently passed bills to support the ecosystem, including limiting water use by industry, allowing farmers to lease their water rights for the lake and installing meters in rural communities, all of which could benefit Great Salt Lake and the humans that live in the northern Utah cities and towns. One piece of legislation created a Great Salt Lake Commissioner whose job it is to provide strategies and reports to the governor, and his office has made great inroads in connecting all entities in the watershed who control water use.
The federal government has also supported the lake through contributions of infrastructure dollars, the Saline Lake Ecosystems Act and the Inflation Reduction Act. The state agencies and advising committees have worked diligently to make use of the railroad causeway that bisects the lake, altering the breach to better control salinity, which protects the part of the lake that feeds millions of birds. Artists, poets, activists, advocates and scientists have dedicated time to public performances, lectures and installations to raise awareness. The local media, through the Great Salt Lake Collaborative, have educated the public on both the problems and the potential solutions. All of these efforts result in a powerful boost to protect the lake from the looming crisis.
The problem is the timeline and the dire scenario we face. A shallow lake subjected to the megadrought-climate-change combo means we have to work extra hard on creating more inflows to Great Salt Lake, and we have to move quickly. The next decade promises to be dry and warm, and we will have to be courageous stewards of the lake to create the inflows of water needed to sustain it. Otherwise, eight centuries from now, tourists may visit the ruins of northern Utah, reading the interpretive signs about the megadrought that caused the once vibrant civilization to evacuate. The remains of our houses will be covered in dust.
(Bonnie K. Baxter) Bonnie K. Baxter, Ph.D., is a professor of biology and Director of Great Salt Lake Institute at Westminster University.
Bonnie K. Baxter, Ph.D., is a professor of biology and Director of Great Salt Lake Institute at Westminster University. She has published dozens of scientific articles on the lake’s extreme biology, the first academic book on the biology of Great Salt Lake and the first children’s book about this lake. Dedicated to public speaking, she has become a spokescientist, explaining the water crisis at the lake to government representatives, the media and the community.
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