The Salt Lake Tribune had an article recently on increasing FrontRunner service with hundreds of millions of dollars in state funding to match potential federal funds. The goal is to provide a train every 15 minutes. But before even suggesting borrowing and committing to spending hundreds of millions of local taxpayer dollars, there should be a vigorous cost-benefit study.
During discussion on the future of FrontRunner in the Interim Transportation Committee, it was pointed out that weekday ridership is 4,401 (as of Nov. 11) and may not return to pre-pandemic ridership for as long as decade. If the cost of the suggested improvements were amortized over 30 years compared to expanding the freeway and roads, the cost of roads and subsidy per rider may be significantly less than rail. In the evenings, FrontRunner per rider subsidy may be hundreds of dollars. The Wasatch Front Regional Council was asked to do an analysis of the costs to provide a better decision.
Although the present cost for double-tracking FrontRunner may be half a billion dollars, the suggested plans include electrification of FrontRunner at a cost approaching almost $2 billion. A couple of years ago, there was a study and analysis of the effect of spending over $10 billion on rail projects in the Los Angeles Basin. If found that ridership was almost the same, partly due to a large decrease in bus service and the significant increase in car and personal vehicle use.
Building expensive rail projects in a pandemic is not a wise and fiscally responsible way to spend taxpayer dollars. It may be cheaper to buy every potential rider a semi-used vehicle instead of double-tracking FrontRunner. Utah should recognize that personal vehicles make our families, our economy and our country more efficient. There is no mass transit substitute for taking a family’s children to school, sports and other activities. There is no mass transit substitute for trucks delivering products door to door or transporting products in and out of plants.
Legislators are also pushing for bus rapid transit (BRT) projects at about $100 million each with the Ogden BRT and 4800 South Mid-Valley Connector closest to operation. The predicted ridership is 2,000 to 3,000 per day. But a road lane can carry 5,000 to 10,000 vehicles a day! The 4800 South corridor is already congested and committing two lanes to a BRT should be expected to increase congestion and pollution. The Ogden BRT is following a similar bus route with only a five-minute time saving. A vigorous cost-benefit could provide a better use of the $100 million in taxpayer money.
Although high-use mass transit can arguably decrease pollution, personal vehicles are reducing pollution every year due to better anti-pollution technology and gasoline, and they can carry a full family very efficiently. Roads and vehicles are available 24 hours a day while transit, especially FrontRunner and TRAX, is not. Roads are used by 90% of citizens while transit is now used by less than 2%. Roads are more effective at encouraging economic development than rail with very few exceptions.
A more reasonable plan would start with bus and consider projects only if ridership develops. Government should not look for excuses to spend money.
George Chapman
George Chapman is a former candidate for Salt Lake City mayor and writes a blog at georgechapman.net.
