Should 2012 Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney be elected senator from Utah this November, he’ll be the first major-party presidential nominee to be subsequently elected to a lower office since former Vice President/1968 Democratic nominee Hubert Humphrey, D-Minn., returned to the Senate in 1970.
Romney’s prophetic foreign policy predictions during his presidential run give him the ability to have an impact far greater than your typical freshman senator on vital international issues. Unlike Humphrey, who failed to obtain a slot on the Foreign Relations Committee upon his return to the Senate, in part because of his party’s dovish turn on the Vietnam war, Democrats and Republicans alike have lauded Romney for calling out Russia as a major geopolitical threat before the annexation of Crimea and interference in U.S. elections. Mocked at the time by then-President Barack Obama, Romney has been proven right.
Moreover, Romney’s warning about withdrawing completely from Iraq seems prescient in light of the temporary-but-bloody success of ISIS and Iran’s increased influence in Iraq. His critique of the Obama administration’s failure to enforce his own red line in Syria, thus letting the situation metastasize, also rings true. His criticism of Obama’s START treaty with Russia, which limits American missile defense efforts, seems especially forward-thinking in light of Iran and North Korea’s recent missile activity.
There will be difficulties going forward. Romney has openly questioned President Donald Trump’s trade battles and been critical of Trump’s handling of sensitive immigration issues, even while largely agreeing with the problems of Chinese economic misbehavior and with the dangers of illegal immigration. Moreover, his willingness to critique Trump’s news conference with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Helsinki demonstrates that party loyalty will not decide his positions on foreign affairs.
Nonetheless, Trump (who previously considered nominating Romney for secretary of state) endorsed Romney’s bid for Senate. Romney clearly does not intend on being an anti-Trump Republican like outgoing Sens. Jeff Flake of Arizona and Bob Corker of Tennessee, who at times seem to oppose the president out of spite. Indeed, in a recent commentary, “Where I stand on the Trump agenda,” Romney reiterated that, while he has differences with Trump, he intends to support his initiatives most of the time.
Romney’s success in spite of his complicated relationship with the president is partly due to the fact that Utah is the most Trump-skeptical of any heavily Republican state, and Romney, the first Mormon major party nominee, maintains enormous goodwill in Utah. Conversely, while he still won, Trump received only 46 percent of the vote in 2016 in Utah, far less than Romney’s 72 percent in 2012. Of course, this cannot solely be attributed to Utah’s peculiarities. Romney’s 47.2 percent of the national popular vote in 2012 is greater than Trump ‘s 46.1 percent in 2016. Romney still has a nationwide following.
However, the nuts-and-bolts of affecting foreign policy from the Senate is different from being a president or a secretary of state. Romney will have to navigate how he wishes to focus his influence. In the past, Senate giants like Henry “Scoop” Jackson, D-Wash., and Dick Luger, R-Ind., had significant impact on foreign policy on issues ranging from nuclear strategy to human rights. More recently, now Director of National Intelligence and former Sen. Dan Coats, R-Ind., went out of his way to put forward intelligent proposals for real problems, specifically Russia, and the views of Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., on Latin America, particularly the Venezuelan crisis, are having an outsized impact on the Trump administration. The focused opposition of Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., to the Obama administration’s Iran deal certainly helped lead to Trump’s decision to jettison the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.
Romney’s businessman instincts will undoubtedly cause him to scope out unfilled needs as he decides where to focus his foreign policy efforts. How elections play out, and what the unorthodox Trump administration chooses to do, will also play a role.
But, to quote T.E. Lawrence, “Nothing is written.” Romney will enter office with experience, a national microphone and the ability to forge his own path. I believe he’ll be an assertive voice for sober American engagement with the world that will command attention at home and abroad. America will be better off for it.
Cliff Smith is a lawyer and former congressional staffer who works in foreign and national security related affairs. He was part of the Evangelicals for Mitt movement and was the founder and chairman of Hill Staffers and Politicos for Romney in 2012. He lives in Washington, D.C.
