Utah Republicans have maintained a veto-proof supermajority in the Legislature for over two decades. While the GOP has made significant investments this election cycle toward growing its legislative dominance, early ballot returns Wednesday suggest Democrats stand a chance to flip some red districts.
And a handful of unaffiliated candidates and Democrats ran races against Republicans that could break into that supermajority. But even in a best-case scenario for candidates challenging GOP power at the Utah Capitol, the party is expected to hold onto more than two-thirds of both bodies.
The GOP currently comprises about 80% of both chambers, and Republican lawmakers have spent hundreds of thousands of dollars this year in an effort to increase their majority.
In the only district represented by a Democrat outside Salt Lake County — House District 10, in Ogden — the Republican Party and legislators have donated over $117,000. And in the competition for the House Distrct 35 seat held by a retiring Democrat, the Republican Party and legislative leaders have given the GOP candidate over $53,000.
A shadowy PAC attacking Democratic lawmakers for voting against transgender restrictions has also emerged in races Democrats will likely win, or have a shot at winning. Despite sending extensive mailers and texts to voters, Preserving Utah Values PAC has not reported its contributions or expenditures, and has seemingly concealed the individuals behind the committee.
There are multiple seats from San Juan County to Cache County left open by Republicans that Democrats and unaffiliated candidates are targeting, though most competitive races are concentrated in Salt Lake County.
Once Utahns’ ballots are completely counted, it may also show voters have elected the state’s most diverse Legislature yet. Despite being in the bottom fifth of states for women’s representation among lawmakers, according to the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University, the Beehive State is on a trajectory to continue to expand the proportion of legislators who are women.
As the only continental state with more than 1% of its population identifying as Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander, Utah’s voters could send three Pacific Islander candidates to the Capitol next session. And while the state has elected just one Black woman to the Legislature, multiple Black women are on ballots in legislative contests in Salt Lake and Weber counties.
Utah has in recent years seen consistent gains in racial diversity, according to the most recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau. A diversifying Legislature comes as the body voted to ban diversity, equity and inclusion measures in state institutions.
The dozens of legislative elections come as state lawmakers have growing power over policy, both in Utah and nationwide. Among the issues at stake are the future of abortion policy, the rights of LGBTQ+ people and how states will respond to a crisis around housing affordability and the cost of living.
Races on flip watch
Percentages are current as of 2:20 p.m. Wednesday.
John Johnson (R), incumbent: 57.37%
Stacy Bernal (D): 42.63%
Todd Weiler (R), incumbent: 48.19%
Alisa Van Langeveld (unaffiliated): 16.88%
Aaron Wiley (D): 31.75%
Laren Livingston (Constitution): 3.18%
Wayne Harper (R), incumbent: 56.47%
Monnical Manuel (unaffiliated): 43.53%
House District 3: Open after Republican Rep. Dan Johnson’s retirement.
Jason Thompson (R): 55.23%
Patrick Belmont (unaffiliated): 44.77%
House District 10
Rosemary Lesser (D) incumbent: 51.38%
Jill Koford (R): 48.62%
Matt MacPherson (R) incumbent: 52.62%
Jeanetta Williams (D): 47.38%
Anthony Loubet (R), incumbent: 53.82%
Dawn Stevenson (D): 46.18%
House District 30: Open after Republican Rep. Judy Weeks-Rohner opted to run for Senate District 12.
Fred Cox (R): 47.34%
Jake Fitisemanu (D): 52.66%
House District 35: Open after Democratic Rep. Mark Wheatley decided to retire.
Rosalba Dominguez (D): 52.96%
Mike Bird (R): 47.04%
Ken Ivory (R), incumbent: 53.63%
Jessica Wignall (unaffiliated): 46.37%
House District 42: Open after Republican Rep. Robert Spendlove decided to leave the Legislature.
Clint Okerlund (R): 52.88%
Travis Smith (D): 47.12%
House District 45: Open after Republican Rep. Susan Pulsipher chose to retire.
Tracy Miller (R): 65.89%
Sara Cimmers (D): 34.11%
House District 69: Open after Republican Rep. Phil Lyman opted to pursue a gubernatorial campaign.
Logan Monson (R): 63.43%
Davina Smith (D): 36.57%
