With less than three weeks to the election, Republican Spencer Cox leads Democrat Brian King by a two-to-one margin in the race to be Utah’s governor for the next four years, according to a poll released Wednesday.
In a head-to-head matchup among likely voters, the poll by Noble Predictive Insights, a non-partisan polling firm, found that Cox led King 54% to 26%. Around 20% said they were still unsure.
When the options for respondents included failed Republican primary candidate Phil Lyman — who is now running a write-in campaign — and other gubernatorial hopefuls who will appear on the ballot, Lyman received 5% of the vote. Voters will not see Lyman’s name on their ballots.
Cox and King’s number dipped to 49% and 23%, respectively, once the other candidates were added.
David Byler, chief of research at NPI, said as Election Day nears voters who support a third-party or write-in candidate typically realize the choice is really between the top two candidates and abandon their favorite.
“Some Republicans like Lyman more than Cox — but they don’t want to help a Democrat win,” Byler said. “It would be surprising to see Lyman siphon enough votes to thwart Cox,” Byler said.
Cox leads King among both men and women and holds a 69%-13% advantage among voters who are members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.
The survey of 539 likely voters, conducted between Oct. 2-7, has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 4.22%.
The NPI poll comes a week after the King campaign released its own internal polling that had Cox at 35%, King at 24% and Lyman at 19%. King’s campaign saw it as a positive sign that Cox’s lead was dwindling rapidly.
The last Democrat to finish within 30 points of his Republican challenger was Scott Matheson Jr., who lost to Jon Huntsman Jr. in 2004. The last Democrat to win the governor’s race was Matheson’s father, who won reelection in 1980.
(Francisco Kjolseth | The Salt Lake Tribune) Democratic challenger state Rep. Brian King gets ready to answer questions from news outlets following his debate with Republican Utah Gov. Spencer Cox, who is running for reelection, and Libertarian opponent Robert Latham at Salt Lake Community College on Wednesday, Sept. 11, 2024.
On Tuesday, NPI released a poll on the state of the presidential race in Utah that showed Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump leading Democratic nominee Kamala Harris 54% to 39%. King’s internal poll had the same results.
Ballots will arrive in voters’ mailboxes this week — if they have not already — and must be postmarked by Nov. 4, the day before Election Day.
