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Hi, folks. Robert Gehrke here again, back for Part II: Is Utah Trumpland or Mittsburgh? No surprise, based on all of this, that Donald Trump won Utah, but he did so with the two worst showings — 57% in 2020 and 45% in a three-way race in 2016. The last two Republicans to do that poorly were Bob Dole with 55% in 1996 and George Bush with 43% in 1992 (both elections also included Ross Perot). Richard Nixon got 56% in 1968 without a major third-party challenger.

So the relationship status is “complicated.”

There are counties like Piute, where Trump won by an average of 79% in his two campaigns, Duchesne (75%) and Sevier and Emery (73%), where Trump was popular. In a handful of places where, despite Romney’s hometown and religious cachet, Trump outperformed Mitt — in Emery he was 3% better, Beaver 4% and Carbon 9%.

Then there were also places where Trump did MUCH worse than Romney. In Salt Lake and Cache counties, Trump performed 31% worse than Romney. In Davis County, Romney was 34% better, and — this one kind of surprised me — in Utah County Trump’s margin was 37% lower than Romney’s 2012 showing. He was even 18 points worse than John McCain’s showing in 2008.

I don’t think this necessarily shows Utah County is going soft on its conservatism, rather that, despite party allegiances, candidates can still make a difference.

Is Utah the reddest state?

That was probably a lot to digest. At the end, here’s the question that gets debated nationally: Is there anywhere as conservative as Utah?

The answer kind of depends on how you measure it. In the last election, Wyoming gave Trump his largest victory, with nearly 70% of the vote.

A study by the University of Virginia actually identified West Virginia as the most Republican, based on how rural and White the state is, plus the low percentage of people with college degrees. But I don’t like this ranking because most of Utah’s population lives in urban areas and has a lot of people with degrees, so Utah finishes 29th most-conservative, which would make it more liberal than most of the country and less conservative than places like New Mexico and Minnesota. Patently wrong.

In 2021, the political website Fivethirtyeight.com calculated Utah’s partisan “lean” to be nearly 27% in favor of Republicans — probably understated because of McMullin’s involvement in 2016. That’s still well behind a number of states like Wyoming (49.7%), North Dakota and Oklahoma (both 37.2%).

So, no. There are places more conservative and more Republican than Utah. But not many.

What will it take to change?

I addressed this issue in a column a few years back, but I think it’s still true today. Here are the factors that could move Utah to the left:

1. Migration: Utah is the fastest growing state, and a part of that is thanks to people moving here from other states. Those people tend to be younger and more diverse — traits of voters who tend to be more progressive. Over time, if the trend continues, it could dilute the dominance of the LDS voting bloc and the Republican advantage.

2. Growth pressures: Limited government and letting the market rule is fine until your air is polluted, the water is drying up, schools are overcrowded, and you can’t afford a home because prices are too high and wages are too low. There is room here for Democrats to make progress, but what we’ve seen are Republicans evolving to address these issues, to an extent.

3. Populism: In 2018, Utah voters approved three ballot initiatives: legalizing medical marijuana, expanding Medicaid and creating a redistricting commission — issues legislators had rejected. It proved the state is more progressive than their elected officials on those populist issues. If Democrats can find a message that taps into that — especially among young LDS voters — and if Republicans keep moving to the right, there may be daylight to grow. But the national party’s platform doesn’t fly in Utah and is a liability.

4. Unicorn candidates: One winner does not a movement make, but until Utah Democrats can snap the losing streak, it’s hard to consider the state competitive. It will take candidates with crossover appeal who can win independents and LDS voters. Former congressman Ben McAdams, with moderate politics and LDS cred, is the closest the party currently has — and potentially Salt Lake County Councilmember Suzanne Harrison.

5. Time and resilience: Any change of this magnitude will be gradual — years if not decades and coming after many, many defeats. But looking to our neighbors in Colorado, New Mexico and most recently Arizona, it can be done. Maybe.