Lawmakers and leaders of the Our Schools Now initiative are nearing a deal that could steer a couple hundred million dollars to schools and avert or at least drastically alter the pro-education group’s ballot effort. They’d better hurry — the session ends Thursday.
If a deal is struck, it will disappoint many who wanted to see the Our Schools Now effort, which would provide a major cash infusion to schools through a $715 million income and sales tax hike, be decided by voters.
I even wrote at the beginning of the session that lawmakers shouldn’t monkey with the initiative efforts and let voters have their say in November.
But the reality is that tax increases like the one proposed by Our Schools Now are uniquely difficult to pass and organizers like Gail Miller, owner of the Larry H. Miller Group, and Scott Anderson, president of Zions Bank, are smart enough to recognize that. They would be wise to strike a compromise that would get them at least part of what they want.
We saw the tax hike struggles in 2015, when the Utah Transit Authority sought voter approval for a sales tax hike to expand transit service. It was beaten back by an effective campaign by the Koch brothers-funded Americans For Prosperity and failed in seven of the 17 counties, including the big ones — Salt Lake and Utah.
Two years ago, Oregon residents were asked to increase a corporate sales tax to generate a whopping $3 billion for schools. Proponents spent more than $15 million promoting the measure, which suffered a 20-point beating on Election Day.
The same year, education advocates in Oklahoma wanted a 1 percent sales tax increase to help boost teacher salaries. They outspent opponents by more than $6 million and polls showed the measure appeared headed for an easy win, but it went into a nosedive in the weeks before the election and was voted down by nearly 20 points.
There are similar case studies in Colorado, Mississippi, Arizona, South Dakota and Idaho.
Here at home, a January poll by The Salt Lake Tribune and Hinckley Institute of Politics showed 56 percent supporting the Our Schools Now proposal, but nearly 60 percent of those who were backing it were only “somewhat” supportive.
That’s even before Americans For Prosperity started attacking the measure. AFP and the Libertas Institute, a Libertarian-leaning think tank, commissioned a poll that showed that 70 percent of voters are less likely to support the measure when they are told it would increase their taxes by $900, based on an estimate from legislative analysts.
The point is, that message is simple and effective and could easily wipe out the very narrow margin of support the initiative has.
And then what? Defeat at the ballot box would be devastating. The people would have spoken and legislators could easily argue that they aren’t on board with tax increases to fund schools.
That realization and, I suspect, internal polling tells Our Schools Now the same story: They would have to spend millions on a campaign that, in the end, may very well fail.
So that has brought them to the negotiating table. Legislative leaders — chiefly House Majority Leader Brad Wilson and Senate Majority Whip Stuart Adams — are trying to pull together an acceptable package with just four days remaining in the session.
Right now, sources say, the proposal on the table would include a gas tax increase in the neighborhood of 10 cents a gallon. That money would go to roads, and sales tax money that has been funding road construction and maintenance for years could then be used to bolster school funding. Other pieces that are still being worked out would increase the overall package to a few hundred million, according to those familiar with the discussions.
That would be a significant victory and, combined with the billion dollars lawmakers have put into public education since 2011, would move the state in the right direction.
There’s one caveat: Because conservative House members may not want to vote to raise taxes in an election year, one option being discussed is putting the tax package on the ballot for voter approval.
That would mean backers would still have to mount a campaign with no guarantee the compromise would pass. The upside would be that they would presumably have the governor and at least some legislative leaders in their corner.
It’s not ideal, but it probably would give them better odds than trying to ram the current proposal through with the governor and others on the other side.
If lawmakers can put together a reasonable tax plan, Our Schools Now would be wise to make a deal, call it what it is — a win for Utah students — then go back to the fight.
