Value of Utah State Prison land in Draper depends on what replaces it

State lawmakers released competing reports Tuesday about the economic benefit of moving the Utah State Prison out of Draper.

One, requested by Rep. Merrill Nelson, R-Grantsville, argues the state's original estimates are based on faulty assumptions and therefore are unreliable. He believes the prison should stay where it is.

The second, requested by Rep. Brad Wilson, R-Kaysville, a co-chairman of the Prison Relocation Commission, suggests replacing the prison with a high-tech park instead of retail-heavy development would roughly double the expected financial benefits, making it a no-brainer to move the prison to another area.

Both reports were conducted by the legislative fiscal analysts office and they are just the latest front in an intensifying tug of war over the future of Utah's main lockup.

"It illustrates even more pointedly that you can come up with almost any numbers you want, depending on the assumptions," said Nelson, who represents one of the four cities under consideration to house a new prison.

He doubts the assumptions used by state consultants who issued a report in January 2014 estimating that a redeveloped Draper site could create 18,000 jobs and roughly $1.2 billion in economic activity.

That would be based on a mix of retail, commercial and residential uses, but Nelson said the consultants acted as if those businesses would not compete with surrounding retail establishments and would only be created if the prison is moved.

He asked state analysts to take a second look, assuming that the companies would compete and some economic development would happen naturally. The result is an estimate showing 3,700 new jobs and just $557 million in economic activity.

But Wilson downplays Nelson's report, saying "it has been put forth by people who don't want the prison in their areas."

And he argues that both retail-centric reports vastly understate the potential of the 680 acres nestled next to Interstate 15. For years, he and other state lawmakers have said they want to see a high-tech park on the site, not another mixed-use development.

Wilson asked the same fiscal analysts to use the same modeling software but this time assume that the land holds high-tech companies instead of shopping centers and homes.

In this case, the analysts predicted that the state would gain 23,000 jobs over 10 years and see $2.7 billion in economic activity.

"There is a tremendous opportunity for the state and the taxpayers of the state with that ground in Draper," Wilson said.

The debate will continue on Thursday when the Prison Relocation Commission holds its next meeting.

Members are expected to receive a report detailing technical and financial differences between the four sites under consideration. Beyond one in Grantsville, the commission is considering a parcel in Salt Lake City near the airport, one in Eagle Mountain and another in nearby Fairfield.

The commission is charged with making a recommendation to the full Legislature, which will likely take a few more months. Nelson wants the Legislature to take a step back and reconsider moving the prison at all, believing that it is more beneficial to the prisoners and the state to leave the lockup where it is.

"I haven't heard convincing reasons why the prison can't be rebuilt on site," he said. "I'm not convinced that any of the four locations are better than what we now have."

Nelson voted for legislation, sponsored by Wilson, that set up the prison-relocation process and authorized bonding to pay for construction.

He is one of only a handful of state lawmakers who have openly questioned the decision to move the prison.

The mayors of the cities under consideration have vigorously opposed the move and sent a joint letter in mid-June to the commission arguing that the prison should remain in Draper.

Part of their argument is that there's been no economic comparison between relocating the prison and rebuilding it on its current site.

mcanham@sltrib.com