Remember that “last significant snowstorm” of the season that fell on Utah ski resorts last weekend?
Well, it turned out to not be that significant. And, it appears, not the last, either.
Weather watchers are now forecasting a whopper of a storm to fall on the Wasatch Mountains this weekend. Under the radar until recently, it could drop a foot of snow or more in the mountains. Most of that moisture is expected to fall Sunday into Monday.
“If it were to go as the models show,” Evan Thayer, the Utah forecaster for OpenSnow.com, said, “it would certainly be one to two feet of snow in the highest elevations.”
Yet Thayer throws a heaping scoop of skepticism on that expectation. He said the four Utah ski resorts that remain open — Brighton, Solitude, Snowbird and Brian Head — are actually more likely to see a foot of snow or less.
The discrepancy is due to the fickle nature of spring storms, he said. Jet streams tend to be weaker in the spring, allowing storms to peter out. Warmer temperatures also may lead to less snow or less precipitation altogether. In addition, when the snow does fall, the warmer temperatures all but guarantee it will be wetter and heavier than Utah’s typical “Greatest Snow on Earth.”
“This time of year, storms just have more factors working against them than they do in the winter,” Thayer said. “So I’m always a little bit skeptical.”
May, and even June, storms aren’t that unusual. Dave Fields, Snowbird’s general manager, said one of the best spring powder days he’s had took place on Cinco de Mayo — which is coming up this Sunday. Thayer added that Utah averages 10-20 inches of snow in May. Usually, though, it comes in 5-inch spurts or less.
This storm will just miss the April 30 deadline to be tallied into the state’s official season snow totals. Alta Ski Area finished 2023-24 with 621 inches, according to measurements from its MesoWest weather station. Not including this season, the Little Cottonwood Canyon ski area’s 10-year rolling average is 518 inches.
The snowiest spot in the state, according to Thayer’s Daily Snow blog, however, was Ben Lomond Peak. Located in the Ogden Valley near Powder Mountain and Snowbasin, it piled up a season-high snow-water equivalent of 54.3 inches in early April, Thayer wrote. He said that’s equal to about 600 inches of snow. Alta’s SWE, meanwhile, peaked at 48.6 inches.
In addition to the snow in the mountains, this weekend’s storm will translate into rain in the valleys. Sam Webber, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service, said the Salt Lake Valley is likely to receive an inch or more of rain this weekend, while the Ogden Valley may get less than an inch. If weather patterns hold — which Webber, like Thayer, said is uncertain — snow could touch the valley and the benches early next week.
“Springtime weather is often where we find a lot of uncertainty in the forecast,” Webber said. “And that’s just because there’s so much going on with the battle between the seasons.
“We’re fighting air masses right now. And at least for the time being, winter is winning over.”
So rather than the storm of the spring, this weekend’s whopper could end up just materializing as a light sprinkle. Thayer said this late in the ski season, it’s tough to know until the flakes are flying.
“Again, probably I’d say this is the last significant storm,” Thayer said, “but we said that last time. And Mother Nature has a way of making us look bad.”
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