Utah's mountains have ample snowpack after December's stormy weather, but the state is going to need several months with more of the same if it's going to bring the drought to an end.
Snow accumulation is at or near normal statewide, with snowpack in southeastern Utah, including Moab, sitting at 193 percent of average as of Jan. 1. But northern Utah hasn't quite made up for its dry fall — total precipitation for the water year (beginning Oct. 1) is still 88 percent of normal in the Provo-Utah-Jordan river basin.
With El Nino conditions breaking records off the coast of California, there's a lot of optimism about this winter's potential for snow, said Randy Julander, Utah Snow Survey supervisor for the Natural Resources Conservation Service. Southern Utah is essentially guaranteed a great winter, he said, but up north, "we have to temper that [optimism] with the reality, because it certainly could go dry on us up [north]."
Julander said northern Utah has a 50-50 shot at continuing the storm trend. In addition to that uncertainty, he said, the longstanding drought has much of the state starting 2016 in a water deficit. Because Utah has been so dry for so long, reservoirs across the state are just over half full — lower than they usually are at this time of year, and therefore in need of even more water than normal if they're going to start the growing season at full capacity.
But before those reservoirs see any runoff this spring, Utah's parched soils will be the first to quench their thirst, Julander said. Soils in the Weber and Provo-Jordan river basins are particularly dry, he said, and when the snow starts to melt come spring, those dry soils are going to absorb all the water they can handle.
Once the soil is saturated, the excess water will run off into reservoirs.
What that means, Julander said, is that Utah doesn't just need an average year for snow — it needs an exceptional year.
He estimated much of the state needs snow totals in the range of 120 to 140 percent of normal.
"We'll have to take whatever Mother Nature sends to us,' he said, "but that's certainly what we would be hoping for."
Southern Utah, on the other hand, looks just about set for the winter, thanks to El Nino, which is a warming of temperatures in Pacific waters. The conditions generally contribute to wetter-than-average weather in the Southwest.
The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center is calling for above-average precipitation throughout the Southwest through March, and the U.S. Drought Monitor expects the drought will end for southern Utah this year.
Drought is expected to continue in northern Utah, especially Utah, Juab and Tooele counties, but conditions are expected to improve.
epenrod@sltrib.com Twitter: @EmaPen
