Utah schools are being encouraged to incorporate the “success sequence” into their curricula — a model championed by conservatives for what they see as the correct order of life events: education (at least through high school), a full-time job, marriage and then having children.
The push comes from a new joint resolution called SJR3 that’s moving through the Utah Legislature from Sen. Lincoln Fillmore, R-South Jordan, asking schools to teach the framework to students from grades 6 through 12. It gained initial approval in committee Friday, with no pushback.
“The success sequence is really the secret to life,” Fillmore said. “The more individuals who use it, the better off society will be.”
A joint resolution does not have the force of a law and does not have to be signed by the governor to be approved. Instead, it’s like a suggestion of ideas or actions that state lawmakers value.
The success sequence became a popular idea in the 2010s, with researchers from the conservative American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for Family Studies saying that 97% of millennials who followed the prescribed order were living above the poverty level by the time they reached their young adult years (ages 28-34).
Fillmore jokingly said Friday the odds “increase by like a thousandfold.”
The researchers also wrote that marrying before children more than doubles a young adult’s odds of being in the middle or top income brackets. While having a baby first increased the chance of living in poverty by 60%.
In predominantly Republican Utah, state law already requires that public schools approach teaching sex education with a strict “abstinence-based” program. That means chastity must be promoted as the single most effective way to prevent pregnancy or disease.
And teachers are prohibited from encouraging “premarital or extramarital sexual activity.” Students are instructed to wait to have sex until they are married, and then, only with their spouse. It follows the same teachings of the Utah-based Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.
Accordingly, the resolution encourages faith-based organizations to participate in instructing on the success sequence, too. It says the sequence “outlines a clear path for youth and young adults” and “Utah’s institutions, leaders, and citizens are committed to the values of industry, education, and family.”
But the sequence is widely debated. Several studies have questioned the research behind the sequence and said it doesn’t factor in disparities with race — a point that comes as state lawmakers are looking to dismantle diversity and equity offices in education and government throughout Utah that are meant to support individuals of color.
An examination of the original American Enterprise Institute research data from Slate notes that of white people who followed the steps, 73% ended up in the middle class. The same data shows that only 59% of Black individuals did.
It adds: “The economy also seems to be a lot more forgiving to whites when they miss one step in the sequence. For instance, 34% of white people manage to earn higher than 300% of the poverty line despite having a child while young or out of wedlock, compared with 23% of Black people.”
The authors of the original study have acknowledged those influences.
Other authors have questioned the sequence as an excuse by the political right to solve poverty without addressing the systemic issues behind it; instead, it’s framed as a personal responsibility or failure.
A study of the sequence by The Atlantic notes that “it traces a path that people likely to succeed usually walk, as opposed to describing a technique that will lift people over systemic hurdles.” The author says the sequence is mostly valid for those already born into a family or social status that supports that line of events.
The Office of Planning, Research and Evaluation within the U.S. Department of Health found the data behind the sequence to be more correlational than empirical.
Some suggest that the full-time job part of the sequence really carries all the weight. Others say it frames women as failures if they get pregnant — or can’t have or don’t want children. And one article in The Financial Times said women are failed by the setup. The author posited that if a woman gets pregnant, has a kid and then the father leaves, she’s more likely to fall into poverty while the father might achieve success.
Many critics say it’s a sequence built on shaming the poor.
Lawmakers on the Utah Senate Education Committee didn’t bring up those concerns or ask any questions when they heard the bill Friday.
Instead, several organizations in Utah stood in support of the measure, including the right-leaning Sutherland Institute and the Utah Office of Families — created by Gov. Spencer Cox in 2022.
The Office for Families includes a link to the success sequence on its website homepage.
“We think this is great for families in Utah,” said Director Aimee Winder Newton.
Jennie Earl, vice chair of the Utah State Board of Education, also said the board supports the measure. The agency will be responsible for working it into curricula and, she said, will “help promote these things that are helpful for families and communities.”
