St. George • Four months into the current water year, precipitation levels in Washington County are at near-record levels – and not in a good way.
Since the start of the water year on Oct. 1, the southern Utah county has received .34 inches of rain, making this water year the third-driest on record thus far, according to Hayden Mahan, meteorologist for the National Weather Service’s Salt Lake Office.
Only the 1916 and 1918 water years were worse, with the former tallying .04 inches of rain and the latter totaling .17 inches between October and late January. However, Mahan noted, records can be as deceiving as they are apt to be broken.
For example, Mahan said, the 1916 water year is missing data for 115 days and the dearth of data for the 1918 water year amounts to a few hundred days.
“So technically this year is the third-driest on record thus far,” Mahan added, “but if you consider all the days in 1916 and 1918 for which the data is missing – days on which the county could have received rain – this year could be the driest on record.”
Bleak forecast
Just where this water year falls on the record books may be a matter of speculation, but few are disputing the water outlook for Utah’s fifth-most populous county looks bleak at this point. Mahan said the county hasn’t received any significant precipitation since .16 inches of rain fell on Nov. 27.
Paltry amounts fell on Nov. 3 and 12. In October, he added, the county collected .09 inches of rain, which followed a September with no measurable rainfall. August, with 1.64 inches, was the area’s last above-average month for precipitation, according to National Weather Service data. And the forecast over the next month does not look promising for more storm activity.
Jordan Clayton, supervisor of the Utah Snow Survey, said the snowpack for the southwestern Utah mountains surrounding Washington and Iron counties is equally if not more dismal. Currently, the snow-water equivalent, a measurement of how much water the snowpack contains, for the entire area is 23% of average.
“We are seeing terrible snowpack conditions in southwestern Utah,” Clayton said. “There are five [measuring] sites where the snow-water equivalent is the lowest we have measured since we put in the SNOTEL system in the late seventies.”
SNOTEL, or snow telemetry sites, measure snow density and water content.
Moreover, other sites are flirting with record lows. Of particular concern is the Midway Valley site in the mountains east of Cedar City, where the snow-water equivalent currently is 4.4 inches, compared to the 12.2 inches that is expected in a normal year.
“That’s the second lowest on record,” Clayton said. “That is concerning because that area serves as the headwaters of both the Virgin and Upper Sevier rivers, so that doesn’t bode well for either of them in terms of runoff,” Clayton said.
The snow-water equivalent at Gardner Peak, the tallest mountain in the Pine Valley Mountains north of St. George, has registered 2.2 inches, well below the 7.3 inches expected at this time of year and the lowest on record. Clayton said that could negatively impact the spring runoff and water availability on the Santa Clara River.
Further exacerbating matters is soil moisture levels in southwestern Utah, which are in the 10th percentile of where they should be this time of year.
“That means even if we get back to normal in terms of snowpack, which is going to take a lot of snowfall at this point, we are still not going to get a normal runoff because a lot of the water is going to soak into the headwaters and not make it downstream to the Santa Clara or Virgin rivers,” Clayton explained.
Storing water, saying prayers
Fortunately, Washington County reservoirs are in good shape, thanks to wetter-than-average winters over the past two years. Quail Creek currently is 66% of capacity, and Sand Hollow is 87% full. Gunlock and Kolob reservoirs stand at 54% and 51% capacity, respectively.
“This water year underscores the critical role of reservoirs,” said Zach Renstrom, general manager for the Washington County Water Conservancy District. “Unless there is a dramatic change in weather patterns, our community will live off reservoir storage collected from prior years.”
By their reckoning, district officials say there is enough water in the reservoirs to make it through the summer regardless of how much rain and snow the area gets over the remainder of the winter. Still, the prospect of a prolonged drought has prompted Washington County commissioners to call on residents to step up their conservation efforts and to fast and pray for rain to ease the severe drought gripping the area.
For those who heed that call, Ivins resident Barbara McLaughlin urges them to include petitions for “insightful” leaders who will take the necessary steps to conserve water and check runaway development.
“Leaders need to put the good of the community before any self-interest they may have in benefitting from ongoing development,” she said. “No one can survive the seemingly continuous drought without thoughtful planning and implementation…and this should include water restrictions and suspended development.”
Washington County’s population is projected to more than double to about 465,000 by 2060.
