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A pair of good water years have helped stabilize the Great Salt Lake, and there’s a chance — but no guarantee — of another season of wet weather, state officials and a hydrologist said.
Water years run from the start of October to the end of September and include everything from snow season to summer monsoons to fall storms.
Precipitation is most crucial in the mountains during winter in the form of snowpack, which later thaws to runoff and feeds the lakes and the valley as a water source, said Glen Merrill, a hydrologist with the National Weather Service based in Salt Lake City.
The last two years have been above average, he said, and this year the snow melt equivalent was 131% of normal.
It’s been a “game changer” to have back-to-back years with above-average snowfall, said Great Salt Lake Commissioner Brian Steed.
“Having those two, good water years in consecutive years has actually been what’s facilitated recovery,” Steed said of the lake.
Between Oct. 1, 2023, and Sept. 30, 2024, the south arm had an average elevation of 4,193.4 feet above sea level, and the north arm had an average elevation of 4,190.8.
That was the highest level since 2020 for the south arm, and since 2021 for the north arm. A rock-filled railroad causeway bisecting the lake restricts water from flowing north, which means the elevations in the two halves can vary.
Great Lake Lake is still about five feet below the minimum healthy level of 4,198 feet above sea level, a depth set by the state.
The lake typically hits its low point around the transition to a new water year, Deputy Great Salt Lake Commissioner Tim Davis said.
As of the end of the water year on Monday, it was at 4,192.5 in the south arm and 4,191.8 in the north arm — the highest it’s been at this point since at least 2021, according to data from the U.S. Geological Survey.
It’s “somewhat surprising,” Davis said, that the lake continues to stabilize because it’s unseasonably warm and there’s been little precipitation in the past month.
Merrill, the weather service hydrologist, said there is a “high probability” temps will stay around 10 degrees above normal for a few weeks, and the storm tracks that set in during cooler months won’t arrive until then.
He and other climate scientists are hoping for some rain events before the snow starts to help top-level soil that has dried out “pretty significantly” so it will absorb less snowpack when it starts to melt in the spring.
Steed said he hopes with his “heart of hearts” for another good water year, but he “can’t guarantee that we’ll have another.” Climatologists are split on the issue, he said.
The state climatologist, Steed said, is optimistic that the current water year — which started Tuesday and goes until Sept. 30, 2025 — will be a good one.
“He seems optimistic that these good years run in threes, and I sure hope he’s right,” Steed said the state climatologist.
Others though, predict the two good years were just a pause in the megadrought, he said, and that keeps him up at night.
It’s hard to make accurate seasonal predictions in advance, Merrill said, but signs are pointing to a La Niña year with above-normal precipitation.
During La Niña years, the jet stream off the Pacific Ocean moves north, leading to wetter and colder conditions in the northern United States and Canada, and hotter, drier conditions in the southern U.S.
There are some signals that La Niña could lead to more precipitation in northern Utah, especially in mountainous areas, Merrill said.
Utah officials are eyeing ways to get more water to the Great Salt Lake regardless of forecasts, Steed said, by pursuing water donations and encouraging people to be more efficient with their water usage, even in years with a lot of snow and rain.
“We all have to understand that we are living in a desert … and it really matters how we use our water,” he said.
Megan Banta is The Salt Lake Tribune’s data enterprise reporter, a philanthropically supported position. The Tribune retains control over all editorial decisions.
Update, Tuesday, Oct. 8, 11 a.m. • This story was updated to add the state-defined healthy elevation of the lake.
