Editor’s note: This story was updated with a response from the Utah Republican Party at 3 p.m. Feb. 29

Two years ago, In Utah’s House District 3 race, Democratic candidate Patrick Belmont lost to the Republican, Dan Johnson — but Belmont did get 43% of the vote.

In 2020, the Democrat running in District 3 got 26% of the vote. In 2018, the Democrat received 24% of the vote. In the three elections before that — 2012, 2014 and 2016 — the Democrats didn’t put a candidate up against the Republican in that district.

The comparative closeness of the 2022 vote reflects an overall trend in Cache County and a handful of other Utah counties, traditionally strongly Republican areas where voters are becoming more likely to cast ballots for Democratic (or at least non-Republican) candidates.

There’s been a “clear progression” in the past few presidential elections in Cache County, Utah County and elsewhere as Democrats start to close the gap, said Ben Anderson, spokesperson for the Utah Democratic Party.

Shannon Rhodes, chair of the Cache County Democratic Party, said there are a couple of key factors behind the shift.

Rhodes, who’s lived in Cache County for more than two decades and been involved in politics for nearly 10 years, pointed to changing demographics as people move to Cache Valley for Utah State University or for other reasons — as well as a large number of independents who are starting to lean blue instead of red.

It will still take “a few election cycle of dedicated work” to flip Cache County and some of those other areas blue, Anderson said.

But while those areas are becoming more “purple,” and Democrats say they might eventually flip statewide elections “blue,” some counties in Utah are getting more “red.”

Beaver, Carbon and other counties in the south and east — areas with more rural communities — have had gains in Republican votes since 2020.

Utah Republicans know they have a strong foothold in the state.

“I think Utah is solidly Republican,” said state party chair Robert Axson, “and I do not foresee that changing in my lifetime.”

But the party also has “no expectation that past success is indicative of future performance,” Axson said. His goal is to remain relevant by engaging with voters.

Utah still votes Republican statewide

Statewide, Utah still votes red, with 58.1% of registered voters casting ballots for Donald Trump’s reelection bid in 2020 and 53.2% voting for U.S. Sen. Mike Lee in 2022.

But the statewide percentage of voters favoring the GOP has decreased over time — about 13% since 2000 and 20.1% since 2012. The Republican Party’s lead between the 2000 and 2022 elections has also decreased in 14 counties.

Republicans have only lost three counties, according to statewide election data: Salt Lake, Summit and Grand.

Democrats in other Utah counties hope to also flip them blue. According to Anderson, it’s starting to happen in Cache County and along the Wasatch Front.

Rhodes noted that as Utah State University grows, young people and professors move into Cache County, and people who grew up in the area are coming back from California because of housing prices.

She said the local Democratic Party also got involved with Contest Every Race, a national organization that’s trying to get more Democrats to run in smaller races across the country, in thousands of previously uncontested races.

Research has shown when Democrats run, Rhodes said, it slowly moves the needle — giving the party traction in historically Republican-dominated areas.

[Read also: 29 GOP lawmakers won unopposed in Utah’s last elections. Will Republicans win that easily in 2024?]

Party leaders talk to prospective candidates realistically about their chances, Rhodes said. She recalled something she learned when she ran, unsuccessfully, for Cache County Council in 2018. Rhodes lost, by a nearly 3-to-1 margin, to the Republican, Gina Worthen, but said she did better than she thought she would.

“Even though I lost, I knew that the next candidate could do better,” Rhodes said. (There was no Democrat in the race for that council seat in 2022. Worthen opted not to run for re-election, and her successor, Republican Sandi Goodlander, ran unopposed.)

Democratic candidates have done better since 2018 in other council races in Cache County, and Rhodes thinks that’s because of the party platform.

Culture war issues — such as legislation targeting diversity efforts and the state’s transgender bathroom bill — aren’t the values people in Cache Valley want officials to focus on, she said. Residents care more about air quality, education, water and other things that affect their everyday lives, she said, and that’s attracting independent voters.

“All of these things that families care about, we care about, too,” Rhodes said, but that often gets lost in polarization.

The Utah Democratic Party as a whole is focused on showing people who might be hesitant to vote for Democrats that “they’re voting for the same values,” Anderson said, especially as Republicans see the party continue to support former President Donald Trump.

Republicans are gaining ground in some counties

In other areas of the state, Republicans are strong and getting stronger. For example, take the differences in three counties for who voted for Republican presidential candidates George W. Bush in 2000 and Donald Trump in 2020:

• In Beaver County, 73.4% voted for Bush in 2000 to 86.9% voted for Trump in 2020.

• In Carbon County, the share of people voting for Trump in 2020 was 20 percentage points higher than the number who voted for Bush in 2000.

• In Juab County, 72.6% of voters cast ballots for Bush in 2000, while 86.7% voted for Trump in 2020.

Similarly, Carbon, Juab and Millard counties had double-digit increases in the share of votes going to the Republican U.S. Senate candidate, between Orrin Hatch’s run in 2000 and Mike Lee’s re-election campaign in 2022.

Piute County was the only one of Utah’s 29 counties to show a double-digit increase in the share of Republican votes between the U.S. Senate election of 2018, when Mitt Romney was elected to succeed Hatch, and Lee’s 2022 victory.

Though these and other areas are solidly “red,” the Republican party isn’t taking any county for granted, Axson said.

The party is trying to engage more with registered Republicans, he said, and also reach out to new people.

“We’re trying to make the case to any Utahn that the Republican Party has their back,” he said.

Republicans are happy with and confident in voting trends, Axson said, but he will “work tirelessly” to earn voters’ support and take the opportunity “to argue why [our] platform and principles are in tune with the needs and desires of our neighbors.”

Megan Banta is The Salt Lake Tribune’s data enterprise reporter, a philanthropically supported position. The Tribune retains control over all editorial decisions.