Who’s moving to Utah? Who’s leaving? Breaking down the birthplace, race and educational data of our new neighbors

Utahns tend to be a territorial bunch.

And that makes some sense — among all of the states in the West, ours is the one with the most native inhabitants. As I wrote last year, 62% of Utahns were born in Utah. That’s significantly higher than California’s 55%, Idaho’s 47%, Colorado and Wyoming’s 42%, Arizona’s 40%, and especially higher than Nevada’s 27%.

But maybe that makes folks a bit more hostile towards outsiders than I’m comfortable with. As we deal with a changing and growing Utah, those moving to our state are frequently blamed for any problem of any size. Even Gov. Spencer Cox asked Californians to “stay in California instead of coming as refugees to Utah.” In my view, the sentiment is a bit distasteful.

Thanks to some recently released Census data, and some work from our friends at the University of Utah’s Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, we have a better idea of just who those newcomers are — especially those who came in the COVID-19 era. Here’s what the data shows.

How many moving in, how many moving out?

Overall, 119,568 people moved to Utah from elsewhere in 2021; 102,111 of those people came from other states in the U.S., while 17,457 moved from out of the country. Meanwhile, 76,866 people left the state, meaning an increase of 42,702 people.

That meant that most of Utah’s population growth in 2021 came from people moving to Utah rather than through childbirth, a flip-flop from previous trends.

Of the people that moved out of Utah, most tended to be born elsewhere. Among those who left the state, 70% weren’t born here in the first place. But among those who moved here, 27% had been born here and were making a return.

Where did they move from? Where did they move to?

Yes, more people moved here from California than any other state. That makes sense, though — California has more people than any other state! In the end, 19% of incoming Utahns were from California. Utah gained about 19,000 Californians during 2021; enough to fill the Delta Center, but less than a half of a percent of the total population of the state.

Interestingly, Utah also saw a lot of in-migrants from Arizona, Idaho, West Virginia, and Vermont.

Meanwhile, people who moved away from Utah tended not to go to California. Instead, they moved to Arizona, Florida, Texas, or Colorado.

The Gardner report also notes that smaller shares of people moved to Utah from Texas, Washington, and Iowa than in 2018; meanwhile, larger shares moved from Indiana, Oklahoma, and West Virginia. Larger shares of Utahns left to go to Arizona, Texas, and New York than in 2018.

Who is moving to Utah? Who is moving from Utah?

Another interesting facet: those who are moving into Utah are more racially diverse than those who are moving out of it. Just 69% of people moving to the state identify as white alone, compared to 76% of non-moving Utah residents and 78% of those who left the state.

That includes larger shares of in-migrants who are Hispanic, Black, Asian, and those who consider themselves multiple races than in the population as a whole. However, those who moved out of Utah were less Hispanic, less Asian, but more Black than those who didn’t move.

Those who moved in and out of Utah tended to be in the 20-35 age range.

Interestingly, those who came to Utah were more likely to have a masters degree or a professional degree than those who left. Those with a Bachelors’ degree or just an associates degree were more likely to leave than move here.

I also thought it was interesting to see a larger share of college-attending kids moving to Utah than those leaving the state for it. I remember when I was deciding where to go to college, I wanted to leave Utah and try somewhere else — until I learned about the relative costs of tuition here vs. out of state!

Finally, the Census data revealed that, unsurprisingly, those who moved in and out of Utah were more likely to be renters than owners, by a 55-45 margin. Meanwhile, those who didn’t move in Utah were largely homeowners — 70% owned their home compared to 30% who rented.

So what do we learn from this analysis?

At first glance, I’m not really sure these numbers fit with so-called “Big Sort” theory, the idea that American movement is increasingly largely driven by the desire of Americans to live in communities they feel politically oriented with. If politics were the main reason for movement, wouldn’t we see increasing percentages of people moving to Utah from blue states to “escape” their politics — while those leaving Utah would seek blue states to escape ours?

Personally, I see more movement driven more by real estate prices: Californians moving to Utah; Utahns moving to Texas, Arizona, Florida, and New York.

That’s also backed up by the race and educational data. More diverse populations are coming to Utah than leaving it — the opposite of what you’d expect under Big Sort thinking. College-aged kids and those with advanced degrees (who tend to be more liberal than the population as a whole) are more likely to move to Utah than away from it. We don’t have direct evidence, because the Census doesn’t ask about political affiliation, but the breadcrumbs aren’t favorable to the idea.

Instead, Utah is just seeing an influx of non-Utahns. We’re seeing lots of people who were born in other states, people who are more racially diverse than we’re used to, and more people who are more likely to have education ongoing or completed than other Utahns on average.

Rather than decrying their arrival, I think we should welcome it.

Andy Larsen is a data columnist for The Salt Lake Tribune. You can reach him at alarsen@sltrib.com

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