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Kentucky Derby: Favorites often flop, but Orb may be exception

Published May 4, 2013 1:37 pm

Analysis • On a roll with great post position, Shug McGaughey's entry poised for strong run
This is an archived article that was published on sltrib.com in 2013, and information in the article may be outdated. It is provided only for personal research purposes and may not be reprinted.

Being favored in the Kentucky Derby is a blessing and a curse.

Favoritism shows a horse has performed well enough in the months preceding the Derby to make the betting public believe it will win one of the world's greatest races.

On the other hand, being the favorite means little once the starting gate at Churchill Downs springs open and the 20-horse field begins its grueling 11/4-mile journey.

Consider:

Since the great Spectacular Bid romped in 1979, only four favorites have won the Kentucky Derby.

Big Brown is the most recent favorite to win, doing so in 2008. But the last four race-time favorites have finished second, eighth, sixth and 18th.

Meanwhile, winners I'll Have Another, Animal Kingdom, Super Saver and Mine That Bird have gone off at odds of 15-to-1, 20-to-1, 8-to-1 and 50-1.

Hello, Orb.

The winner of four straight races, including the Florida Derby in his final tune-up, Orb is the morning line favorite and presumed betting choice for Saturday's 139th running of the Kentucky Derby.

Orb is trained by Hall of Famer Shug McGaughey, who hasn't saddled a Derby starter since 2002. Clearly, McGaughey doesn't take horses to Louisville just to be part of the fun. He runs them in the Derby when he thinks they are deserving of the opportunity.

The already successful and rapidly maturing Orb fits nicely into that category.

"I'm really excited about the whole thing," 62-year-old McGaughey told reporters this week. "Since the Florida Derby, everything's gone well for us. ...

"I'm as excited as I've been in a long time about a race. I haven't been like this in a long time — maybe ever, really. We've got a horse that's going in the right direction."

Orb will be ridden by red-hot jockey Joel Rosario, who just broke a 23-year-old record for wins at the spring race meet at Keeneland.

Orb and Rosario will break from the No. 16 post, which could be perfect for the horse's patient running style.

"I'm pleased with the [post]," McGaughey said. "We'll try to hold our position and creep in a little bit around the first turn. Then [Rosario] can watch what's going on inside of him."

The probable second choice in the betting will be undefeated Verrazano.

One of five horses in the race from the barn of trainer Todd Pletcher, Verrazano didn't race as a 2-year-old but has won four straight, including the Wood Memorial in his last start.

Pletcher has started 31 horses in the Derby during his career, although he's only won once.

"You have to have everything go right on the day of the race and during the race," Pletcher says. "You have to get lucky with the weather, the track condition, all those things. That being said, we couldn't be more happy with the cards that we're holding at the moment."

Goldencents is another prime contender. If successful, jockey Kevin Krigger will become the first African-American jockey to ride a Derby winner since 1902.

"It's a lifetime achievement," Krigger told reporters after Goldencents' impressive win in the Santa Anita Derby. "It's going to mean everything to me. Every horseman dreams about getting into the Run for the Roses."

Goldencents is trained by Doug O'Neill, who seeks his second straight Kentucky Derby win after sending out I'll Have Another last year.

"The dream seems to be getting better," O'Neill said. "Having got it done [once], this year's dream just seems more real — like we could possibly do it back-to-back."

Goldencents' connections also include Louisville basketball coach Rick Pitino, who owns 5 percent of the horse.

Another jockey with a shot at history is Rosie Napravnik, who is aboard Mylute. She is trying to become first woman to win the Kentucky Derby and the second to win a Triple Crown race. Julie Krone won the 1993 Belmont Stakes aboard Colonial Affair.

— The Associated Press contributed to this story. —

Kentucky Derby

O At Churchill Downs, Louisville, Ky.

Post time • Saturday, 4:24 MT

TV • Channel 5

Purse • $2.2 million

Winner's share • $1.4 million

Morning line favorites • Orb, Verrazano —

Tribune Derby analysis

The Salt Lake Tribune's Steve Luhm picks the Kentucky Derby, top to bottom. Listed are post position, horse, jockey, trainer and morning line odds:

16. Orb Joel Rosario Shug McGaughey 7-2

Comment: Looked like a star in Florida Derby

11. Lines of Battle Ryan Moore Aidan O'Brien 30-1

Comment: Comes off his best yet in UAE Derby

17. Will Take Charge Jon Court D. Wayne Lukas 20-1

Comment: Chances diminish on a sloppy track

8. Goldencents Kevin Krigger Doug O'Neill 5-1

Comment: Derby distance is biggest question

3. Revolutionary Calvin Borel Todd Pletcher 10-1

Comment: Regular rider took Normandy Invasion

14. Verrazano John Velazquez Todd Pletcher 4-1

Comment: Obvious factor after four straight wins

10. Palace Malice Mike Smith Todd Pletcher 20-1

Comment: Adds Smith, blinkers for this attempt

2. Oxbow Gary Stevens D. Wayne Lukas 30-1

Comment: Trip trouble in last three — a chance

5. Normandy Invasion Javier Castellano Chad Brown 12-1

Comment: Just missed in Wood vs. Verrazzano

19. Java's War Julien Leparoux Ken McPeek 15-1

Comment: Came from far back in Bluegrass

12. Itsmyluckyday Elvis Trujillo Edward Plesa Jr. 15-1

Comment: Enough tactical speed to be a factor

15. Charming Kitten Edgar Prado Todd Pletcher 20-1

Comment: Could be a major player in the stretch

6. Mylute Rosie Napravnik Thomas Amoss 15-1

Comment: Without a stakes wins in nine starts

9. Overanalyze Rafael Bejarano Todd Pletcher 15-1

Comment: Beat so-so rivals in Arkansas Derby

20. Vyjack Garrett Gomez Rudy Rodriguez 15-1

Comment: Outside post position won't help

18. Frac Daddy Victor Lebron Ken McPeek 50-1

Comment: Little chance off last three races

1. Black Onyx Joe Bravo Kelly Breen 50-1

Comment: Wins have been on the slow side

13. Falling Sky Luis Saez John Terranova 50-1

Comment: Will be among the early leaders

4. Golden Soul Robbie Albarado Dallas Stewart 50-1

Comment: Appears hopelessly overmatched

7. Giant Finish Jose Espinoza Anthony Dutrow 50-1

Comment: Wouldn't bet him with your money