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News roundup: Insiders predict who will win the presidency

Published November 6, 2012 8:42 am

This is an archived article that was published on sltrib.com in 2012, and information in the article may be outdated. It is provided only for personal research purposes and may not be reprinted.

Predicting the president. Trib pollster now says mayoral race is a toss up. At long last, Election Day is upon us.

Happy Tuesday. Today's the day voters determine who will spend the next four years in the White House. Well, potentially — if the vote comes down to Ohio and is close, we might not know the winner for over a week. [NYTimes] [WaPost]

-> Mitt Romney gives his final pitch saying he's the real change agent. [Trib]

-> President Barack Obama holds a slight lead in the polls that has grown more steady in recent days. [WaPost] [LATimes]

Topping the news: The Trib's pollster made a mistake and now believes the Salt Lake County mayoral race is too close to call. He says he originally compiled a sample of Salt Lake County that matched the state's voting demographics, but the county is clearly not as conservative as the entire state. The embarrasing mistake also had impacts for the results of the 4th District poll. [Trib] [DNews]

-> Obama does gain a majority of support in Utah in two categories: Democrats and non-Mormons. [Trib]

Tweets of the day: From @morningmoneyben: "I already don't believe and am outraged by tomorrow's election result, whatever it may be."

Happy birthday: To State Rep. Richard Greenwood.

Watch parties: You can join the Utah Republicans at the Hilton at 255 S. West Temple or the Utah Democrats at the Sheraton on 150 W. 500 South. Both bashes begin at 7 p.m..

The race for 270: The latest Electoral College predictions: FiveThirtyEight: Obama 314.6, Romney 223.4. Pollster: Obama 277, Romney 191. RealClearPolitics: Obama 303, Romney 235.

Presidential predictions: Larry Sabato, University of Virginia Center for Politics: Obama 290, Romney 248. "While Romney surged after the first debate, he never quite closed the deal in the key swing states. And now, we believe he has run out of time." [CenterforPolitics]

-> Ari Fleischer, former White House press secretary under Bush: "My prediction: Romn 50.1%-49.5%. Romn w minimum 271 EVs (FL, VA, CO, WI, NH). 309 EVs if he takes OH&PA. Pres-elect Romney" [Twitter]

-> Ezra Klein, Washington Post: Obama 290, Romney 248. "I have a simple rule when predicting presidential elections: The polls, taken together, are typically pretty accurate. Systemic problems, while possible, aren't likely." [WaPost]

-> Karl Rove, former deputy chief of staff to Bush: "Sometime after the cock crows on the morning of Nov. 7, Mitt Romney will be declared America's 45th president. Let's call it 51%-48%, with Mr. Romney carrying at least 279 Electoral College votes, probably more." [WSJournal]

-> Dave Wasserman, U.S. House editor of the Cook Political Report: "Personal (not Cook Report) prediction: Obama wins 303 Electoral votes while losing more than 75% of the nation's 3,141 counties." [Twitter]

-> Jay Cost, Weekly Standard: Romney victory. "I am not willing to take polls at face value anymore. I am more interested in connecting the polls to history and the long-run structure of American politics, and when I do that I see a Romney victory." [WeeklyStd]

-> Philip Klein, The Examiner: Obama 277, Romney 261: "I believe the arguments about polls understating Romney's position have some merit, but only up to a point. I also believe that by and large, despite some high profile errors, polling is generally accurate when results from multiple pollsters overwhelmingly point in one direction." [Examiner]

-> Michael Barone, The Examiner: Romney 315, Obama 223. "Both national and target state polls show that independents, voters who don't identify themselves as Democrats or Republicans, break for Romney." [Examiner]

2012 watch: Romney, to a Florida crowd: "Tomorrow, we begin a new tomorrow. Tomorrow, we begin a better tomorrow." [WaPost] And he got a minutes long standing ovation in New Hampshire, where his campaign again. It left him overwhelmed. [Globe]

-> Obama spends his final 24 hours in Wisconsin, Iowa and Ohio. [USAToday] Bruce Springsteen and Jay-Z join him in Ohio. [SunTimes]

-> Romney snagged 24 swing state newspaper endorsements to the president's 15. [FOXNews]

-> Celebrities are backing their presidential-nominee-of-choice with last minute donations. [Politico]

-> Newt Gingrich suspects that Bill Clinton has ulterior motives for campaigning on the president's behalf, charging that he's "collecting IOU's in case Hillary Clinton wants to run in 2016." [Politico]

-> Is Mitt Romney the president? [TheGuardian]

In other news: Officials predict that up to 80 percent of active Utah voters will cast a ballot this election cycle. [Trib] [DNews] [Fox13]

-> Pat Bagley offers his take on the choices voters have before them today. [Trib]

-> Nationally high schoolers back Obama, but in Utah they want Romney. [Trib]

-> Chris Vanocur condenses 13 years of Romney into just four minutes of video. [ABC4]

-> A collection of the funniest and most bizarre campaign ads includes Scott Howell's suggestion that Sen. Orrin Hatch may die in office. [FactCheck]

-> Bryan Schott discusses some voting conspiracy theories and gives his prediction for the Electoral College map. Spoiler: He thinks Obama wins. [UtahPolicy]

-> A Murray homeowner catches his yard sign thief on tape, fed up after having them stolen several times. [Fox13]

Where are they?

Gov. Gary Herbert attends judicial deliberation and meets with Lt. Gov. Greg Bell.

SLC Mayor Ralph Becker meets with department directors, hosts a meeting for the new performing arts center and, lastly, meets with City Council Chair Søren Simonsen and Vice-Chair Charlie Luke.

WVC Mayor Mike Winder goes to the city council meeting and attends the GOP Victory Party at the Hilton.

President Barack Obama speaks in Chicago, where he will remain overnight.

Got a tip? A birthday, wedding or anniversary to announce? Email us at cornflakes@sltrib.com. If you haven't already, sign up for our weekday email and get this sent directly to your inbox. [Trib]

— Matt Canham and Betsy Blanchard Twitter.com/mattcanham and Twitter.com/betsyblanchard