American voters have trouble distinguishing between causation and correlation. They jump from having “done better” under Trump 1.0 (correlation) to assuming Trump was the cause of that happening, even when there was very little Trump 1.0 did to create that great economy (or, more accurately stated, to not ruin the economy inherited from his predecessor.)
I challenge our voters to a test during Trump 2.0. Note, in detail, how well you are doing at the beginning of Trump 2.0. And then keep track of what Trump 2.0 does that might cause “how you are doing” to change, for better or worse. And, of course, keep track using those same measures of how you are doing through Trump 2.0.
The stock market is a good place to start because it’s important. A lot of us are depending on it to help us “do well” in our retirement. Economists all foretold what the effects of Trump’s tariffs would be, and he has deployed them more heavily than was predicted. So, we see the action and we will see the resulting effects. We might see a good example of causation playing out before our eyes.
One more possible demonstration of causation: Trump 2.0 has decimated staffing levels in federal agencies. When and if you start missing Medicare reimbursement or your Social Security checks, that could be a pretty clear indication of causation.
There are many more possible examples, so do your homework. Don’t be fooled by the misinformation and disinformation. Do your own thinking. Recognize if and when Trump 2.0 causes you to do worse than you did before he came to office, and what he did to cause that to happen (or not.) Our future depends on you recognizing this.
Kendall Robins, Sandy
